25th JULY 2014 MATCH PREVIEWS

Morning Guys, here are today's match previews courtesy of http://www.tennisratings.co.uk

It's quarter-finals day in this week's tournaments and there are a number of trading opportunities available today, all highlighted in the Tier Two Daily Spreadsheets, and I'll give my take on a number of them in today's previews.

In early matches, it was no surprise that the match between Misa Eguchi and Bojana Jovanovski had many breaks and swings and I'm hoping Eguchi will be able to get into some more events as she looks a player with excellent trading potential.

It's midway through the first set in the Juan Monaco vs Thomaz Bellucci match in Gstaad with a break apiece being traded already. Spreadsheet subscribers will have noticed the high combined scores on both players here, making it viable to lay either player a break up, and a winning trade has already occurred midway through the first set.

Also viable is laying Monaco a set up - according to the Ultimate Pre-Match Betting Spreadsheet, Monaco won just 34.8% of matches 2-0 when he started as favourite from June 2013 to June 2014 - well below the ATP average of 46.6%. Furthermore, Bellucci wins at least a set 90.0% as an underdog - vastly over the tour mean there.

The men's match which is most likely to see breaks is the Fabio Fognini against Borna Coric clash in Umag with Coric's adjusted challenger stats indicating that he should struggle to hold serve on a consistent basis against a volatile, but good returner. Taking on the Coric serve looks a solid plan there.

I also would like to be on Tommy Robredo against Pablo Carreno-Busta in an all-Spanish clash in Croatia, with the younger (and generally over-rated) Carreno-Busta having a low projected hold according to my model, and having a high combined score of 84.4 when a break up, losing a break lead 43.8% in the last 12 months, with Robredo recovering a deficit 40.6% of the time - both a fair bit above average.

There's not much which stands out in the remaining WTA matches in Baku, or the other men's event in Atlanta with projected holds generally high. I feel Thiemo De Bakker could cause Benjamin Becker some issues with the 1.63 about the German looking pretty short - De Bakker has been under-rated this week.

Unsurprisingly there are high projected holds between John Isner and Marinko Matosevic and the SP of around 1.50 on Isner looks about right. With break point 'clutch' scores high for both players, I do like backing the player losing on serve in-game at points recommended in the TennisRatings Trading Handbook.

Good luck in the markets and stay green!

http://www.tennisratings.co.uk
Statistics: Posted by Redhead — Fri Jul 25, 2014 10:48 am