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JA89
Posts: 42
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2019 4:26 am

I went down after lunch and watched the final few hours. Only a small crowd as you'd expect but I think every Indian supporter in Brisbane was there. Hardly any noise when Australia took a wicket but a single would get a roar. The atmosphere was quite infectious, almost found myself pulling for India by the end. After getting bowled out for 30 odd in the first test, this has to rank as one of the greatest comebacks in test cricket, especially when some of their players would struggle to get a game in their 2nd XI normally. The better team definitely won but Australia were poor. You'd think Wade has to go and if Paine wasn't gifted the captaincy, he'd also be on the chopping block.
Last edited by JA89 on Tue Jan 19, 2021 2:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
JA89
Posts: 42
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2019 4:26 am

Alternatively keep Wade as keeper and drop Paine. Surely Smith has served his time and deserves the C back against his name.
Barrakee
Posts: 42
Joined: Mon Jan 04, 2021 8:56 pm

JA89 wrote:
Tue Jan 19, 2021 2:06 pm
Alternatively keep Wade as keeper and drop Paine. Surely Smith has served his time and deserves the C back against his name.
No way. Smith was a poor captain even without sandpapergate. He doesn't have the emotional intelligence to do it. Let him just keep on being the best test batsmen in the world.

Fairly premature everyone calling for Paine's head. He has just had a poor few matches with the gloves and things haven't gone their way in the field. By contrast look at Adelaide. Everything went right for them. It's just a bit of variance to put it in punting terms. No one else is knocking down the door with either the gloves or captaincy. I don't want Cummins to be burdened by it either.

Its probably time for Wade though, if he is going to keep performing like he has been they might as well have Head in there averaging 40. I wouldn't drop either Starc or Lyon either, they've done enough to be given a bit of rope. Especially Lyon. You could maybe mount a case for trying someone other than Starc, given how good our fast bowling stocks are at the moment.
sionascaig
Posts: 1053
Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:38 am

Put together a monte-carlo simulation for the SL vs Eng game tonight if anyone interested.

It looks at performance over last couple of years (in this case from Q4 2018 to present) and models expected runs taking account of the batters average & std dev over that period. It also gives batting performance (BP) over last 5 games & adjusted combined bowling rate ACBR over last 10 games.

Model says back SL, lay Eng based on current market prices - I'll probably do the opposite )
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Barrakee
Posts: 42
Joined: Mon Jan 04, 2021 8:56 pm

sionascaig wrote:
Thu Jan 21, 2021 10:12 pm
Put together a monte-carlo simulation for the SL vs Eng game tonight if anyone interested.

It looks at performance over last couple of years (in this case from Q4 2018 to present) and models expected runs taking account of the batters average & std dev over that period. It also gives batting performance (BP) over last 5 games & adjusted combined bowling rate ACBR over last 10 games.

Model says back SL, lay Eng based on current market prices - I'll probably do the opposite )
Looks good. Did you build that spreadsheet yourself?

I laid the draw a few days ago in the mid 5s. Apparently the pitch is even drier than last test and I think the weather forecast is not too bad. Have cashed out now and will wait another opportunity in-play
sionascaig
Posts: 1053
Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:38 am

Barrakee wrote:
Thu Jan 21, 2021 11:43 pm

Looks good. Did you build that spreadsheet yourself?

I laid the draw a few days ago in the mid 5s. Apparently the pitch is even drier than last test and I think the weather forecast is not too bad. Have cashed out now and will wait another opportunity in-play
You did well. I missed that opportunity.

I'll be doing the same - waiting on an opportunity - if I manage to wake up in time !

Was trying to come up with a better way to take account of bowling performance to feed into model but not sure how best to do that atm... Its been pretty accurate on that last few test at predicting starting prices - this time round there was clearly an opportunity to back SL early doors. Still finding my feet with the data though.. One thing - the model does seem to be pretty sensitive to Mathews runs so may look out for that if he goes early / has a significantly low score.
Emmson
Posts: 3363
Joined: Mon Feb 29, 2016 6:47 pm

Market move suggest Lanka have won toss and naturally they will bat.
Emmson
Posts: 3363
Joined: Mon Feb 29, 2016 6:47 pm

Lanka are not totally reliable but prospects of an enormous Eng drift from here.
sionascaig
Posts: 1053
Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:38 am

Tossed the coin & decided on laying SL
eightbo
Posts: 2154
Joined: Sun May 17, 2015 8:19 pm
Location: Malta / Australia

Have never heard of someone botting the cricket; are there those that do it ?

Full automation not semi-automated e.g. no user input based on teams playing / stats
Emmson
Posts: 3363
Joined: Mon Feb 29, 2016 6:47 pm

eightbo wrote:
Fri Jan 22, 2021 4:08 am
Have never heard of someone botting the cricket; are there those that do it ?

Full automation not semi-automated e.g. no user input based on teams playing / stats
Yes but not myself, I just don't have that knowledge at this point, aside from tick offset tool which is a big part of my trading.
Emmson
Posts: 3363
Joined: Mon Feb 29, 2016 6:47 pm

Currently in a bad shade of red. :evil:
sionascaig
Posts: 1053
Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:38 am

Was reading about an AI one that looks at inplay bowling & probability of a wicket being taken in next 5 to 10 mins - needs a direct feed on bowling performance though with 84 bits of data per ball. Claims to have an accuracy of 86% but also has a very high variance... Its used as a marketing gimmick for Fox Sports atm... (but being developed further)

https://medium.com/@drewjarrett/predict ... 2a8d5084a0
Barrakee
Posts: 42
Joined: Mon Jan 04, 2021 8:56 pm

Emmson wrote:
Fri Jan 22, 2021 4:55 am
Currently in a bad shade of red. :evil:
Bad luck. The poms drifted from 2.3 to 3.05 after the toss. I got on at around 2.9. Couple of early wickets and laid off at 2.1. Waiting for my dream run to end!

Now looking to lay the draw around the 4-5 mark if the Sri Lankans put on a semi decent partnership.
Emmson
Posts: 3363
Joined: Mon Feb 29, 2016 6:47 pm

I'm back in the green now, I didn't enjoy that start 2 down for nowt bearing in mind what happened with their 1st dig a week or so ago.

Lunch day 1

Lanka, Eng, Draw
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