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abgespaced
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Location: Australia

Barrakee wrote:
Fri Jan 08, 2021 9:51 pm
I don't think the pitch will be too friendly days 4 and 5. There will be sun on it from now on and even yesterday the old ball stayed low. Cummins almost got one under the bat yesterday (can't remember if it was Pujara or Rohit).
Yes, that's what I was expecting, but what I didn't expect was India to do so poorly in their first innings while the pitch was still OK. So the draw blew out before I got on it.

Right now I'm hampered by my fear of laying the draw from the first test match i ever traded, so tend to miss out on those opportunities. If I lay at 4 and watch it go into 3 I get seriously stressed and can't watch, even though it likely won't be a draw.

On the flip side i picked up some more profits on the first 2 wickets of Australia's innings. Warner was a given with his injuries while that pitch was starting to do its thing.

I suspect Megarain would have layed the draw at around 4 or so and got out at 10-12. That's what' I'd do if I had the confidence.
Barrakee
Posts: 38
Joined: Mon Jan 04, 2021 8:56 pm

abgespaced wrote:
Sat Jan 09, 2021 7:46 am
Barrakee wrote:
Fri Jan 08, 2021 9:51 pm
I don't think the pitch will be too friendly days 4 and 5. There will be sun on it from now on and even yesterday the old ball stayed low. Cummins almost got one under the bat yesterday (can't remember if it was Pujara or Rohit).
Yes, that's what I was expecting, but what I didn't expect was India to do so poorly in their first innings while the pitch was still OK. So the draw blew out before I got on it.

Right now I'm hampered by my fear of laying the draw from the first test match i ever traded, so tend to miss out on those opportunities. If I lay at 4 and watch it go into 3 I get seriously stressed and can't watch, even though it likely won't be a draw.

On the flip side i picked up some more profits on the first 2 wickets of Australia's innings. Warner was a given with his injuries while that pitch was starting to do its thing.

I suspect Megarain would have layed the draw at around 4 or so and got out at 10-12. That's what' I'd do if I had the confidence.
I've had a fair bit of success with test cricket but I struggle with T20. Are markets more efficient in the shorter format? It'd be nice if there were more longer format opportunities. How much liquidity is there on county/shield/other red ball comps?
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abgespaced
Posts: 173
Joined: Sun Aug 23, 2020 2:25 am
Location: Australia

Barrakee wrote:
Sat Jan 09, 2021 7:56 am
I've had a fair bit of success with test cricket but I struggle with T20. Are markets more efficient in the shorter format? It'd be nice if there were more longer format opportunities. How much liquidity is there on county/shield/other red ball comps?
I'm probably the last person to ask but IMO the T20 are not what I'd call efficient. Have a look at the graphs Megarain posted a few days ago. The favourites swap positions all the time. I think it's due to a combination of a relatively low quality of game and big money from India. That said, the more I study them the easier they seem.

With regards to the non international red ball games... i don't think there is all that much liquidity, but i couldn't tell you as I haven't traded them. What I can tell you is how easy it is to lose $500 on county 20/20 games due to lack of liquidity :lol:
Barrakee
Posts: 38
Joined: Mon Jan 04, 2021 8:56 pm

abgespaced wrote:
Sat Jan 09, 2021 8:05 am
Barrakee wrote:
Sat Jan 09, 2021 7:56 am
I've had a fair bit of success with test cricket but I struggle with T20. Are markets more efficient in the shorter format? It'd be nice if there were more longer format opportunities. How much liquidity is there on county/shield/other red ball comps?
I'm probably the last person to ask but IMO the T20 are not what I'd call efficient. Have a look at the graphs Megarain posted a few days ago. The favourites swap positions all the time. I think it's due to a combination of a relatively low quality of game and big money from India. That said, the more I study them the easier they seem.

With regards to the non international red ball games... i don't think there is all that much liquidity, but i couldn't tell you as I haven't traded them. What I can tell you is how easy it is to lose $500 on county 20/20 games due to lack of liquidity :lol:
Haha it is the best way to learn I reckon. To be honest I haven't delved into T20 too much but on the surface I can't seem to read it as well as test matches. Do you have any tactics going in to day 4 of the test?
sionascaig
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Staying awake is highly over rated - woke up to quite a nice green this morning )
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abgespaced
Posts: 173
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Location: Australia

sionascaig wrote:
Sat Jan 09, 2021 10:17 am
Staying awake is highly over rated - woke up to quite a nice green this morning )
Bold move! I'm guessing you backed the draw? Don't think I'd ever get to sleep if I did that.
Barrakee wrote:
Sat Jan 09, 2021 10:14 am
Haha it is the best way to learn I reckon. To be honest I haven't delved into T20 too much but on the surface I can't seem to read it as well as test matches. Do you have any tactics going in to day 4 of the test?
I think T20 is easier once you get the hang of it. You get a result within minutes instead of hanging on wondering if you made the right decision. Just have to get out of positions a lot quicker compared to test cricket, which means liquidity is a must.

Re day 4.. all depends how well the batters are handling the pitch. Can't see India winning from here, or the draw. So either laying them or backing Aus if the right prices present themselves.
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abgespaced
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Layed the draw at 5.6. it spiked to 12.5 but back in to 8 now for the overnight wait. I think it should be higher with this wicket and the way the ball was moving. 98 runs and 2 wickets in one session. They have 4 sessions to go.
Barrakee
Posts: 38
Joined: Mon Jan 04, 2021 8:56 pm

abgespaced wrote:
Sun Jan 10, 2021 7:29 am
Layed the draw at 5.6. it spiked to 12.5 but back in to 8 now for the overnight wait. I think it should be higher with this wicket and the way the ball was moving. 98 runs and 2 wickets in one session. They have 4 sessions to go.
Well done. I backed the Aussies from 1.20 all they way up to 1.30 and then laid off after the wickets. Also laid the Indians in the low teens.

You can never underestimate Cummins ability to dismiss an in batsmen. If Pujara and Rahane survive the first half hour this morning there might be another good opportunity to lay the draw.
Barrakee
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Joined: Mon Jan 04, 2021 8:56 pm

Have laid India around the 11 mark
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abgespaced
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Location: Australia

Barrakee wrote:
Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:45 am
Have laid India around the 11 mark
Yeah i was thinking to do that but I'm staying out of it until there's some crazy swings. The pitch is disappointing today. 3 dropped catches too.
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