Today's Cricket
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abgespaced
- Posts: 181
- Joined: Sun Aug 23, 2020 2:25 am
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abgespaced
- Posts: 181
- Joined: Sun Aug 23, 2020 2:25 am
Aside from my home team not winning, one hell of a test match and performance by India. One for the ages. I hope Paine doesn't get on social media for a few days.
From a trading POV pretty good match for me, back at work today so couldn't commit my full attention but still managed to be up for the day. I still make poor trades by wanting something to happen rather than trading what I see. My best trades are when I sit on my hands and then recognise when the market has got emotional rather than taking a position based on what I think is going to happen in the game. The learning process continues
From a trading POV pretty good match for me, back at work today so couldn't commit my full attention but still managed to be up for the day. I still make poor trades by wanting something to happen rather than trading what I see. My best trades are when I sit on my hands and then recognise when the market has got emotional rather than taking a position based on what I think is going to happen in the game. The learning process continues
Just keep following test matches and what the draw is doing and also never take weather forecasts for granted.abgespaced wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 7:57 amWell done. I got healthy greens on Aus & India, but couldn't read the draw for the life of me. Any tips?
The draw went above and below2.0 10 times before Tea on Day 5, and I imagine another 5-10 times in the carnage afterward.What about this graph stands out to you?
A basic bot would have done pretty well. I will try post the final graph in a week or so.
I have never understood the point of posting P/L without turnover. I traded something like 2m, with a 1% or so profit - but was always losing heavily on draw.
1-2% profit on turnover is a decent achievement.
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sionascaig
- Posts: 1621
- Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:38 am
I couldn't take the heat & bailed early - got too caught up in the excitement of the game - really enjoyed it though )
I went down after lunch and watched the final few hours. Only a small crowd as you'd expect but I think every Indian supporter in Brisbane was there. Hardly any noise when Australia took a wicket but a single would get a roar. The atmosphere was quite infectious, almost found myself pulling for India by the end. After getting bowled out for 30 odd in the first test, this has to rank as one of the greatest comebacks in test cricket, especially when some of their players would struggle to get a game in their 2nd XI normally. The better team definitely won but Australia were poor. You'd think Wade has to go and if Paine wasn't gifted the captaincy, he'd also be on the chopping block.
Last edited by JA89 on Tue Jan 19, 2021 2:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
No way. Smith was a poor captain even without sandpapergate. He doesn't have the emotional intelligence to do it. Let him just keep on being the best test batsmen in the world.
Fairly premature everyone calling for Paine's head. He has just had a poor few matches with the gloves and things haven't gone their way in the field. By contrast look at Adelaide. Everything went right for them. It's just a bit of variance to put it in punting terms. No one else is knocking down the door with either the gloves or captaincy. I don't want Cummins to be burdened by it either.
Its probably time for Wade though, if he is going to keep performing like he has been they might as well have Head in there averaging 40. I wouldn't drop either Starc or Lyon either, they've done enough to be given a bit of rope. Especially Lyon. You could maybe mount a case for trying someone other than Starc, given how good our fast bowling stocks are at the moment.
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sionascaig
- Posts: 1621
- Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:38 am
Put together a monte-carlo simulation for the SL vs Eng game tonight if anyone interested.
It looks at performance over last couple of years (in this case from Q4 2018 to present) and models expected runs taking account of the batters average & std dev over that period. It also gives batting performance (BP) over last 5 games & adjusted combined bowling rate ACBR over last 10 games.
Model says back SL, lay Eng based on current market prices - I'll probably do the opposite )
It looks at performance over last couple of years (in this case from Q4 2018 to present) and models expected runs taking account of the batters average & std dev over that period. It also gives batting performance (BP) over last 5 games & adjusted combined bowling rate ACBR over last 10 games.
Model says back SL, lay Eng based on current market prices - I'll probably do the opposite )
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Looks good. Did you build that spreadsheet yourself?sionascaig wrote: ↑Thu Jan 21, 2021 10:12 pmPut together a monte-carlo simulation for the SL vs Eng game tonight if anyone interested.
It looks at performance over last couple of years (in this case from Q4 2018 to present) and models expected runs taking account of the batters average & std dev over that period. It also gives batting performance (BP) over last 5 games & adjusted combined bowling rate ACBR over last 10 games.
Model says back SL, lay Eng based on current market prices - I'll probably do the opposite )
I laid the draw a few days ago in the mid 5s. Apparently the pitch is even drier than last test and I think the weather forecast is not too bad. Have cashed out now and will wait another opportunity in-play