Let's see if Trap 3 is likely to get out and stay there. Just trying something out...
Today's Greyhounds
- wearthefoxhat
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- Realrocknrolla
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Anyone know why Swindon card isn’t on BF today?
- MemphisFlash
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- Location: Leicester
time for beakfast
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- wearthefoxhat
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Excellent...bacon & eggs?
- wearthefoxhat
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Just trying out something with Poissin Distribution with Greyhounds.
The outcome is that each greyhound gets a combination of probabilities and where their best chance of finishing in the race. That's all fine, but with greyhounds a comparison should be made of comparing the likelihood percentage of finishing in 1st or last, and an odds range to 100% created to find value for a lay or back selection.
Here's a working example of the odds output compared to the result.
In general, greyhounds can be an unreliable betting medium. In the example T6 is a clear value back bet and should be favourite. It was @7/4 and lost. However, looking at this race and others I've tested, the value is in the Laying of those that are predicted at double odds and end up favourite or second favourite at the off. In the example, that would be T4 @ 3/1, probably around 5.0 on the exchange.
In some races both 1st & 2nd Favourites have predicted double odds and both should be layed.
Have been focussing on races where there's a nap/nb bet in the press and try to see if these overbet ones can be layed if they are double odds in the calculation.
The outcome is that each greyhound gets a combination of probabilities and where their best chance of finishing in the race. That's all fine, but with greyhounds a comparison should be made of comparing the likelihood percentage of finishing in 1st or last, and an odds range to 100% created to find value for a lay or back selection.
Here's a working example of the odds output compared to the result.
In general, greyhounds can be an unreliable betting medium. In the example T6 is a clear value back bet and should be favourite. It was @7/4 and lost. However, looking at this race and others I've tested, the value is in the Laying of those that are predicted at double odds and end up favourite or second favourite at the off. In the example, that would be T4 @ 3/1, probably around 5.0 on the exchange.
In some races both 1st & 2nd Favourites have predicted double odds and both should be layed.
Have been focussing on races where there's a nap/nb bet in the press and try to see if these overbet ones can be layed if they are double odds in the calculation.
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- wearthefoxhat
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Quick update on some morning data results.
Black Sydney is a carry over from yesterday as highlighted previously.
I used the Maria Lay Staking Plan on a test bank of £160. (15/15 Lost - Highest Lay odds 5.20 Lowest Lay odds 3.15) +14.74 Only Laying 1st/2nd Favourites as outlined on previous post.
Scaleable to 20x comfortably, maybe more.
Black Sydney is a carry over from yesterday as highlighted previously.
I used the Maria Lay Staking Plan on a test bank of £160. (15/15 Lost - Highest Lay odds 5.20 Lowest Lay odds 3.15) +14.74 Only Laying 1st/2nd Favourites as outlined on previous post.
Scaleable to 20x comfortably, maybe more.
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Wearthefoxhat, that's interesting. I have been reading and watching vids about different types of distributions recently. What data do you use to calc final odds to compare with a market odds?wearthefoxhat wrote: ↑Wed Aug 18, 2021 8:52 amJust trying out something with Poissin Distribution with Greyhounds.
Poisson2.png
Formulae.png
The outcome is that each greyhound gets a combination of probabilities and where their best chance of finishing in the race. That's all fine, but with greyhounds a comparison should be made of comparing the likelihood percentage of finishing in 1st or last, and an odds range to 100% created to find value for a lay or back selection.
Here's a working example of the odds output compared to the result.
example.png
In general, greyhounds can be an unreliable betting medium. In the example T6 is a clear value back bet and should be favourite. It was @7/4 and lost. However, looking at this race and others I've tested, the value is in the Laying of those that are predicted at double odds and end up favourite or second favourite at the off. In the example, that would be T4 @ 3/1, probably around 5.0 on the exchange.
In some races both 1st & 2nd Favourites have predicted double odds and both should be layed.
Have been focussing on races where there's a nap/nb bet in the press and try to see if these overbet ones can be layed if they are double odds in the calculation.
- wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3221
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
The data calculation creates the probability of a greyhound winning the race and finishing last, then cross refers both figures to create an overall figure which is then converted into a 100% book. (in green)napshnap wrote: ↑Wed Aug 18, 2021 1:53 pmWearthefoxhat, that's interesting. I have been reading and watching vids about different types of distributions recently. What data do you use to calc final odds to compare with a market odds?wearthefoxhat wrote: ↑Wed Aug 18, 2021 8:52 amJust trying out something with Poissin Distribution with Greyhounds.
Poisson2.png
Formulae.png
The outcome is that each greyhound gets a combination of probabilities and where their best chance of finishing in the race. That's all fine, but with greyhounds a comparison should be made of comparing the likelihood percentage of finishing in 1st or last, and an odds range to 100% created to find value for a lay or back selection.
Here's a working example of the odds output compared to the result.
example.png
In general, greyhounds can be an unreliable betting medium. In the example T6 is a clear value back bet and should be favourite. It was @7/4 and lost. However, looking at this race and others I've tested, the value is in the Laying of those that are predicted at double odds and end up favourite or second favourite at the off. In the example, that would be T4 @ 3/1, probably around 5.0 on the exchange.
In some races both 1st & 2nd Favourites have predicted double odds and both should be layed.
Have been focussing on races where there's a nap/nb bet in the press and try to see if these overbet ones can be layed if they are double odds in the calculation.
If the market overbets something and makes it first/second favourite and the predicted odds suggest it should be 10.00+ then it becomes a value lay.
- Crazyskier
- Posts: 1166
- Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:36 pm
Nice workwearthefoxhat wrote: ↑Wed Aug 18, 2021 1:09 pmQuick update on some morning data results.
Black Sydney is a carry over from yesterday as highlighted previously.
I used the Maria Lay Staking Plan on a test bank of £160. (15/15 Lost - Highest Lay odds 5.20 Lowest Lay odds 3.15) +14.74 Only Laying 1st/2nd Favourites as outlined on previous post.
Scaleable to 20x comfortably, maybe more.
results.png
18.Aug.21.png
CS
Well donewearthefoxhat wrote: ↑Wed Aug 18, 2021 1:09 pmQuick update on some morning data results.
Black Sydney is a carry over from yesterday as highlighted previously.
I used the Maria Lay Staking Plan on a test bank of £160. (15/15 Lost - Highest Lay odds 5.20 Lowest Lay odds 3.15) +14.74 Only Laying 1st/2nd Favourites as outlined on previous post.
Scaleable to 20x comfortably, maybe more.
results.png
18.Aug.21.png
- ilovepizza82
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- Contact:
Favourites have predicted double odds ? WHat do you mean double odds ?wearthefoxhat wrote: ↑Wed Aug 18, 2021 8:52 amJust trying out something with Poissin Distribution with Greyhounds.
Poisson2.png
Formulae.png
The outcome is that each greyhound gets a combination of probabilities and where their best chance of finishing in the race. That's all fine, but with greyhounds a comparison should be made of comparing the likelihood percentage of finishing in 1st or last, and an odds range to 100% created to find value for a lay or back selection.
Here's a working example of the odds output compared to the result.
example.png
In general, greyhounds can be an unreliable betting medium. In the example T6 is a clear value back bet and should be favourite. It was @7/4 and lost. However, looking at this race and others I've tested, the value is in the Laying of those that are predicted at double odds and end up favourite or second favourite at the off. In the example, that would be T4 @ 3/1, probably around 5.0 on the exchange.
In some races both 1st & 2nd Favourites have predicted double odds and both should be layed.
Have been focussing on races where there's a nap/nb bet in the press and try to see if these overbet ones can be layed if they are double odds in the calculation.
You mean if PD shows you 10% of chances of winning while the exchange 20% ?
What is "cumulative" in excell ?
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Hello Wearthefoxhat & Other forum users , I am formulating my own final rating's for both Aust Horse & Greyhound Racing and came across your post on pricing markets and using Poissin Distribution to compare against the Betfair Price .
The area i am in interested is getting my final ratings and converting them to a price and was wondering if Poissin Distribution can do that
and if it can how do you go about doing that ? Below is a example of a race and it's final rating ..
Any help would be greatly appreciated .. Thanks
Horse 1 - 0.79
Horse 2 - 0.66
Horse 3 - 0.45
Horse 4 - 0.41
Horse 5 - 0.37
Horse 6 - 0.35
Horse 7 - 0.27
Horse 8 - 0.20
Horse 9 - 0.16
The area i am in interested is getting my final ratings and converting them to a price and was wondering if Poissin Distribution can do that
and if it can how do you go about doing that ? Below is a example of a race and it's final rating ..
Any help would be greatly appreciated .. Thanks
Horse 1 - 0.79
Horse 2 - 0.66
Horse 3 - 0.45
Horse 4 - 0.41
Horse 5 - 0.37
Horse 6 - 0.35
Horse 7 - 0.27
Horse 8 - 0.20
Horse 9 - 0.16
This thread should help https://www.flatstats.co.uk/ppp/viewtop ... romHistorysmitdog wrote: ↑Thu Aug 19, 2021 12:05 pmHello Wearthefoxhat & Other forum users , I am formulating my own final rating's for both Aust Horse & Greyhound Racing and came across your post on pricing markets and using Poissin Distribution to compare against the Betfair Price .
The area i am in interested is getting my final ratings and converting them to a price and was wondering if Poissin Distribution can do that
and if it can how do you go about doing that ? Below is a example of a race and it's final rating ..
Any help would be greatly appreciated .. Thanks
Horse 1 - 0.79
Horse 2 - 0.66
Horse 3 - 0.45
Horse 4 - 0.41
Horse 5 - 0.37
Horse 6 - 0.35
Horse 7 - 0.27
Horse 8 - 0.20
Horse 9 - 0.16
(upd1)
But here's calcs if you are lazy ...
Take a notice about these 10 and 90 numbers here "<-- =10+(90*(C6))/B$3" - it's defined by user.
(upd2)
Here's calcs of your data...
Also notice that this has nothing to do with Poisson Distribution, Poisson Distribution is more complicated.