Today's Greyhounds

We've gone to the dogs.
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wearthefoxhat
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Let's see if Trap 3 is likely to get out and stay there. Just trying something out... :roll:

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Realrocknrolla
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Anyone know why Swindon card isn’t on BF today?
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MemphisFlash
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Location: Leicester

time for beakfast

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wearthefoxhat
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MemphisFlash wrote:
Sat Aug 14, 2021 6:52 am
time for beakfast


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Excellent...bacon & eggs?
cjdl
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Hi All
I am new to BetAngel and was wondering if anyone knows if the is a Guardian stratergy for Laying Greyhounds which are picked manually any help would be very much appreciated
Jimmy
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wearthefoxhat
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Just trying out something with Poissin Distribution with Greyhounds.

Poisson2.png
Formulae.png

The outcome is that each greyhound gets a combination of probabilities and where their best chance of finishing in the race. That's all fine, but with greyhounds a comparison should be made of comparing the likelihood percentage of finishing in 1st or last, and an odds range to 100% created to find value for a lay or back selection.


Here's a working example of the odds output compared to the result.

example.png

In general, greyhounds can be an unreliable betting medium. In the example T6 is a clear value back bet and should be favourite. It was @7/4 and lost. However, looking at this race and others I've tested, the value is in the Laying of those that are predicted at double odds and end up favourite or second favourite at the off. In the example, that would be T4 @ 3/1, probably around 5.0 on the exchange.

In some races both 1st & 2nd Favourites have predicted double odds and both should be layed.

Have been focussing on races where there's a nap/nb bet in the press and try to see if these overbet ones can be layed if they are double odds in the calculation.
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wearthefoxhat
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Quick update on some morning data results.

Black Sydney is a carry over from yesterday as highlighted previously.

I used the Maria Lay Staking Plan on a test bank of £160. (15/15 Lost - Highest Lay odds 5.20 Lowest Lay odds 3.15) +14.74 Only Laying 1st/2nd Favourites as outlined on previous post.

Scaleable to 20x comfortably, maybe more.

results.png
18.Aug.21.png
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napshnap
Posts: 1189
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wearthefoxhat wrote:
Wed Aug 18, 2021 8:52 am
Just trying out something with Poissin Distribution with Greyhounds.


Poisson2.png


Formulae.png


The outcome is that each greyhound gets a combination of probabilities and where their best chance of finishing in the race. That's all fine, but with greyhounds a comparison should be made of comparing the likelihood percentage of finishing in 1st or last, and an odds range to 100% created to find value for a lay or back selection.


Here's a working example of the odds output compared to the result.


example.png


In general, greyhounds can be an unreliable betting medium. In the example T6 is a clear value back bet and should be favourite. It was @7/4 and lost. However, looking at this race and others I've tested, the value is in the Laying of those that are predicted at double odds and end up favourite or second favourite at the off. In the example, that would be T4 @ 3/1, probably around 5.0 on the exchange.

In some races both 1st & 2nd Favourites have predicted double odds and both should be layed.

Have been focussing on races where there's a nap/nb bet in the press and try to see if these overbet ones can be layed if they are double odds in the calculation.
Wearthefoxhat, that's interesting. I have been reading and watching vids about different types of distributions recently. What data do you use to calc final odds to compare with a market odds?
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3205
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napshnap wrote:
Wed Aug 18, 2021 1:53 pm
wearthefoxhat wrote:
Wed Aug 18, 2021 8:52 am
Just trying out something with Poissin Distribution with Greyhounds.


Poisson2.png


Formulae.png


The outcome is that each greyhound gets a combination of probabilities and where their best chance of finishing in the race. That's all fine, but with greyhounds a comparison should be made of comparing the likelihood percentage of finishing in 1st or last, and an odds range to 100% created to find value for a lay or back selection.


Here's a working example of the odds output compared to the result.


example.png


In general, greyhounds can be an unreliable betting medium. In the example T6 is a clear value back bet and should be favourite. It was @7/4 and lost. However, looking at this race and others I've tested, the value is in the Laying of those that are predicted at double odds and end up favourite or second favourite at the off. In the example, that would be T4 @ 3/1, probably around 5.0 on the exchange.

In some races both 1st & 2nd Favourites have predicted double odds and both should be layed.

Have been focussing on races where there's a nap/nb bet in the press and try to see if these overbet ones can be layed if they are double odds in the calculation.
Wearthefoxhat, that's interesting. I have been reading and watching vids about different types of distributions recently. What data do you use to calc final odds to compare with a market odds?
The data calculation creates the probability of a greyhound winning the race and finishing last, then cross refers both figures to create an overall figure which is then converted into a 100% book. (in green)

If the market overbets something and makes it first/second favourite and the predicted odds suggest it should be 10.00+ then it becomes a value lay.
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Crazyskier
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wearthefoxhat wrote:
Wed Aug 18, 2021 1:09 pm
Quick update on some morning data results.

Black Sydney is a carry over from yesterday as highlighted previously.

I used the Maria Lay Staking Plan on a test bank of £160. (15/15 Lost - Highest Lay odds 5.20 Lowest Lay odds 3.15) +14.74 Only Laying 1st/2nd Favourites as outlined on previous post.

Scaleable to 20x comfortably, maybe more.


results.png


18.Aug.21.png
Nice work

CS
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Dallas
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wearthefoxhat wrote:
Wed Aug 18, 2021 1:09 pm
Quick update on some morning data results.

Black Sydney is a carry over from yesterday as highlighted previously.

I used the Maria Lay Staking Plan on a test bank of £160. (15/15 Lost - Highest Lay odds 5.20 Lowest Lay odds 3.15) +14.74 Only Laying 1st/2nd Favourites as outlined on previous post.

Scaleable to 20x comfortably, maybe more.


results.png


18.Aug.21.png
Well done
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ilovepizza82
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Location: Sewers
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wearthefoxhat wrote:
Wed Aug 18, 2021 8:52 am
Just trying out something with Poissin Distribution with Greyhounds.


Poisson2.png


Formulae.png


The outcome is that each greyhound gets a combination of probabilities and where their best chance of finishing in the race. That's all fine, but with greyhounds a comparison should be made of comparing the likelihood percentage of finishing in 1st or last, and an odds range to 100% created to find value for a lay or back selection.


Here's a working example of the odds output compared to the result.


example.png


In general, greyhounds can be an unreliable betting medium. In the example T6 is a clear value back bet and should be favourite. It was @7/4 and lost. However, looking at this race and others I've tested, the value is in the Laying of those that are predicted at double odds and end up favourite or second favourite at the off. In the example, that would be T4 @ 3/1, probably around 5.0 on the exchange.

In some races both 1st & 2nd Favourites have predicted double odds and both should be layed.

Have been focussing on races where there's a nap/nb bet in the press and try to see if these overbet ones can be layed if they are double odds in the calculation.
Favourites have predicted double odds ? WHat do you mean double odds ?
You mean if PD shows you 10% of chances of winning while the exchange 20% ?
What is "cumulative" in excell ?
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napshnap
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double odds ?
I think Wearthefoxhat means double digit number by that.
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smitdog
Posts: 34
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Hello Wearthefoxhat & Other forum users , I am formulating my own final rating's for both Aust Horse & Greyhound Racing and came across your post on pricing markets and using Poissin Distribution to compare against the Betfair Price .
The area i am in interested is getting my final ratings and converting them to a price and was wondering if Poissin Distribution can do that
and if it can how do you go about doing that ? Below is a example of a race and it's final rating ..
Any help would be greatly appreciated .. Thanks

Horse 1 - 0.79
Horse 2 - 0.66
Horse 3 - 0.45
Horse 4 - 0.41
Horse 5 - 0.37
Horse 6 - 0.35
Horse 7 - 0.27
Horse 8 - 0.20
Horse 9 - 0.16
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napshnap
Posts: 1189
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2017 6:21 am

smitdog wrote:
Thu Aug 19, 2021 12:05 pm
Hello Wearthefoxhat & Other forum users , I am formulating my own final rating's for both Aust Horse & Greyhound Racing and came across your post on pricing markets and using Poissin Distribution to compare against the Betfair Price .
The area i am in interested is getting my final ratings and converting them to a price and was wondering if Poissin Distribution can do that
and if it can how do you go about doing that ? Below is a example of a race and it's final rating ..
Any help would be greatly appreciated .. Thanks

Horse 1 - 0.79
Horse 2 - 0.66
Horse 3 - 0.45
Horse 4 - 0.41
Horse 5 - 0.37
Horse 6 - 0.35
Horse 7 - 0.27
Horse 8 - 0.20
Horse 9 - 0.16
This thread should help https://www.flatstats.co.uk/ppp/viewtop ... romHistory


(upd1)

But here's calcs if you are lazy 8-) ...

Image

Take a notice about these 10 and 90 numbers here "<-- =10+(90*(C6))/B$3" - it's defined by user.


(upd2)

Here's calcs of your data...

Image


Also notice that this has nothing to do with Poisson Distribution, Poisson Distribution is more complicated.
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