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We've gone to the dogs.
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Crazyskier
Posts: 1157
Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:36 pm

liltbrockie wrote:
Fri May 27, 2022 4:58 pm
The simple fact of the matter is that over the last 10 years or so the average strike rate for the dogs are as follows:

R1:33%
R2:22%
R3:17%
R4:13%
R5:9%
R6:6%

Each rank is doing everything in its power to maintain that strike rate.

Now if wanted to, you could set yourself a window for the past X amount of races (50 or so might work) and keep track of the strike rate for each rank. The moment one of the ranks starts diverging massively from its default strike rate... dollar signs should be ringing. For some ranks, the window can be slightly different... for example if I noticed rank 6 just won 3 times in a row you can bet your botttom dollar im gonna lay it the 4th time for a modest amount.

And if you are really clever you can have a bit of automation keeping track of these divergences for you and laying the dog thats winning a little bit too often automatically for you like I have!

It's not a guarenteed win everytime obviously and don't get greedy... but the odds, shall we say, are nicely stacked in your favor... (well they have been for me for the past 6 months or so anyway.)
You might like a roulette strategy called 'law of the third'. Quite a similar philosophy. You may find https://www.roulettelife.com/index.php?topic=938.0 interesting.

CS
andy28
Posts: 343
Joined: Sat Jan 30, 2021 12:06 am
Location: NZ

So what's the difference between the Gamblers Fallacy and Regressing to the Mean?
andy28
Posts: 343
Joined: Sat Jan 30, 2021 12:06 am
Location: NZ

Ok penny has dropped
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