Greyhound Musings

We've gone to the dogs.
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wearthefoxhat
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Timeform got that one right.

Romf 11.16R.png
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The Silk Run
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wearthefoxhat wrote:
Sat Jul 23, 2022 11:22 am
Timeform got that one right.


Romf 11.16R.png
Nice one ;)
In your opinion who is the most consistent in their forecasting of the three corporates, TF, RP, and SL.
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wearthefoxhat
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The Silk Run wrote:
Sat Jul 23, 2022 11:58 am
wearthefoxhat wrote:
Sat Jul 23, 2022 11:22 am
Timeform got that one right.


Romf 11.16R.png
Nice one ;)
In your opinion who is the most consistent in their forecasting of the three corporates, TF, RP, and SL.
Preference would be for Timeform.

To be fair, it's difficult for them to tip in 150+ races a day. The edge, for us, is that we can be selective and focus on the better graded races.
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The Silk Run
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wearthefoxhat wrote:
Sat Jul 23, 2022 3:53 pm
The Silk Run wrote:
Sat Jul 23, 2022 11:58 am
wearthefoxhat wrote:
Sat Jul 23, 2022 11:22 am
Timeform got that one right.


Romf 11.16R.png
Nice one ;)
In your opinion who is the most consistent in their forecasting of the three corporates, TF, RP, and SL.
Preference would be for Timeform.

To be fair, it's difficult for them to tip in 150+ races a day. The edge, for us, is that we can be selective and focus on the better graded races.
Thank you for your input. It appears a number of people follow the Timeform model.
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wearthefoxhat
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Added an extra line to the data model algo.

"We" both agreed on this one. T3 was overall value at 13/8f. Promising results throughout the day. Had to re-assess as T1 was the reserve dog in the race. (didn't make any difference this time)

K5.22R.png
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The Silk Run
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wearthefoxhat wrote:
Sun Jul 24, 2022 5:38 pm
Added an extra line to the data model algo.

"We" both agreed on this one. T3 was overall value at 13/8f. Promising results throughout the day. Had to re-assess as T1 was the reserve dog in the race. (didn't make any difference this time)


K5.22R.png
Personally, I would avoid all markets with reserves entered, too much risk.
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wearthefoxhat
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The Silk Run wrote:
Sun Jul 24, 2022 5:49 pm
wearthefoxhat wrote:
Sun Jul 24, 2022 5:38 pm
Added an extra line to the data model algo.

"We" both agreed on this one. T3 was overall value at 13/8f. Promising results throughout the day. Had to re-assess as T1 was the reserve dog in the race. (didn't make any difference this time)


K5.22R.png
Personally, I would avoid all markets with reserves entered, too much risk.
I agree. Timeform did have the form of the reserve available, so I was able to input/adjust the data.
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wearthefoxhat
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Just a quick recap.

I focus on certain tracks that appear to have a bias for certain traps, along with certain grades (higher the better) with sufficient form-data to assess. I'll include some other tracks that may help give a true running for each runner. ie: Monmore.

I've noticed a few things.

Some racing managers are better than others at putting a race together.
Better graded races are more consistent. (easier to spot improvers)
Racing managers don't like runners that find chunks of time from nowhere.
Age of a runner is important. The racing manager likes to set up a race for an older runner from time to time.
Not all graded races are the same. ie: Some A4 races are A5 races in disguise, some A2 races are A1 races...etc (down to availability of runners)
Timeform data seems to be better. (comments/tips as a guide only)
Hcaps (HP)/Sprints (D)/Stayers (S)/Middle (B)/Trial (T,T2,T3) form, impacts perfomance when returning to the A graded category.
Visualising/estimating a clean run is important and should be factored into the overall time prediction.
Going allowances aren't totally reliable.
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The Silk Run
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I think it's very significant that you have applied forensics to track management as they are hugely influential !!!
Somebody recently told me that a TM's biggest headache was managing water, natural, or artificial.
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The Silk Run
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Rain is a big variable in my concept of operations in this market.
Jukebox
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The Silk Run wrote:
Mon Jul 25, 2022 12:03 pm
I think it's very significant that you have applied forensics to track management as they are hugely influential !!!
Somebody recently told me that a TM's biggest headache was managing water, natural, or artificial.
Artificial water?
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wearthefoxhat
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The Silk Run wrote:
Mon Jul 25, 2022 12:06 pm
Rain is a big variable in my concept of operations in this market.
The Silk Run wrote:
Mon Jul 25, 2022 12:03 pm


I think it's very significant that you have applied forensics to track management as they are hugely influential !!!
Somebody recently told me that a TM's biggest headache was managing water, natural, or artificial.
Rain, or even adverse cold weather, can create bias on a track surface. This can show up as the meeting progresses.

Over-use of a track can affect things too. The recent greyhound derby saw this happen. The trainers were moaning about it in between heats. It went from very fast, with the track record getting broken a couple of times to slow within a week without any change in the weather.
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wearthefoxhat
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Let's see how this pans out. Haven't looked at Nottingham that much, seems similar to Monmore with regards to a fair track with no obvious bias.

NottTrPr.png

Nott 11.21.png


It's one of those where the grader seems to be taking it easier on an older runner, T2 (Mar 18). Set up for a clean run.
T1 @ 6/4 looks skinny for one that could find trouble with T3
T4 could take advantage if the others falter early on.
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wearthefoxhat
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That worked out well.

It seems as though others spotted the set up as well. T2 gambled from 10/3 to 11/8f. (T1 drifted from 6/4f to 10/3 and found trouble).
T5 was poor value too.


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wearthefoxhat
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Harlow is on my main list of tracks.

Harlw Tr.png

Harl 11.09.png

The T2 was gambled from 11/4 to 6/5f, (due to high expectation of first run to the bend), in turn creating value on the other runner T6, drifted from 4/1 to 8/1.

T2 got to the front and looked home and hosed, but the T6, who was set up with a clean run on the outside, came home strongly.
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