i do recall MANY years ago working on strategy with you (?) that involved comparing every runner in each race to their previous performances (trap/odds/bends, the lot) and how they paired up with their adversaries on the day. i recall that the (fairly) simple analysis initially held a lot of promise, but then faltered (which i presume was mean reversion -or dogs just getting old !!).Archery1969 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 19, 2023 10:07 pmI do something like this on the dogs, offering the BACK/LAY prices in the columns to the right.
By product of that is I take the lowest lay price when applying it to Horse Racing and lay the field at that price or close to in BF price. Not all tracks though, there or 4/5 where it works well due to camera angles and distance to the finish line etc.
I guess that the long and short is that stats can at best provide historical context - but for sure (100%) can't present future results. the job therefore is to cut between the lines and determine probabilities that are supported by your own synthetic odds. in truth, i never managed to work this out, even tho i had an embarrassment of riches in terms of data!!