Fugazi wrote: ↑Sun May 18, 2025 11:45 pm
But wouldnt trap bias already modelled into prices? Seems too simplistic a metric
Reckon it would be.
I remember many years back, think it was Romford, when there was a biblical amount of rain overnight, they did well to get the meeting on.
After 3 races, it was clear the outside traps held a big advantage over the inside traps due to the way the water had drained towards the rail and impacted the surface. The on-course bookies were laying 20/1+ on every Trap 1 or Trap 2 runner irrespective of the how good the form was. Traps 5 & 6 all went off short odds and duly won all the races.
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The Greyhound Derby heats have a lot of the fastest dogs drawn and winning in the outside traps, so not really a bias. However, the way the first 2 round draws were made, some of the trainers requested a wide seeding for their runner. The draw wasn't totally random, as it was structured to draw the inside seeds first, then a guarded runner, then the middle seeds, and finally the wide seeded runners.
This guaranteed being drawn in T6, as there were 32 races in round 1 and T5 was vacant for a large number of them. Qualifying in the first 3 was a given if they were half decent.
In the recent round 3 draw, there were no guarded runners, only inside/wide seeded runners drawn. The wide runners were still drawn last of all, but there were more of them that qualified and are now in T5 & T6 with some interesting match ups and some potential shocks ahead.
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