Today's Greyhounds

We've gone to the dogs.
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 7694
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

stever78 wrote:
Mon Jun 06, 2022 7:33 pm
what greyhound resources / websites does anyone use and recommend ??
i know of the usual suspects, being
racing post (greyhound.bet site)
timeform
sporting life
atr

i am also quite impressed with greyhoundstats.co.uk.

are there any other sites that are good ??? even if there are subscription based ( which to be honest i cant find any )

cheers, steve
What stats are you looking for that aren't on those sources?
eightbo
Posts: 2125
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Location: Malta/Germany

eightbo wrote:
Mon Jun 06, 2022 1:20 am
ShaunWhite wrote:
Sun Jun 05, 2022 11:37 pm
eightbo wrote:
Sun Jun 05, 2022 9:49 pm
Anyone have a rough optimal time to refresh + add AUS/NZL dog markets into guardian each day (GMT) ?
Definitely on by 00:15 and usually at 00:01 UK local time. But that won't include the pre midnight racing about 22hrs later which happens at some times of the year.
Thanks Shaun.
I only found 30 markets before midnight UK time, just got back in and found 121 markets now (01:16)

Have set alarm for 00:15 and will trial that, ty
Edit (timeline):
(00:15) 68 mkts
(00:20) 68
(00:25) 92
(00:30) 105
(00:39) 125

Enough for me, will experiment a bit over next wk and report findings
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eightbo
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Location: Malta/Germany

PS my take on the profit thing is:
1. A lot of matched bet vol. In dog markets is at wrong prices.
E.g. if we assume SP @ ~100% is about right, and we have 3 steamers and 3 drifters, then all the cash on the way to the "correct' price is wrong (e.g. one customer takes +4% and one gives away -4% compared to final price).
Same with early market orders e.g. people paying spread in 108/92 books one is -8% other is +8%, latter example not completely accurate as not all sides are bet even e.g. more likely to be hit on the side closer to wherever price ends up but some of those orders will be way off mark

2. Also I think if you match £2 at odds 20 it adds +£4 to mkt traded vol., but same happens at odds 1.80 or? (Not 100% on this)
If so it's deceptive & the number should be a lot bigger i.e. the 20 odds £2 bet should probs be (£18+£2) = +£20 to mkt vol.
If we would calculate everything in this way we'd probs have way over £100k to volume giving £1000+ in profits to go round but also the negative factor should allow us to take more without changing the profit avail. figure so something like £5/mkt on average probs isn't completely outside the realms of possibilities for us to reach if we're running a few strats on enough volume
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ShaunWhite
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eightbo wrote:
Tue Jun 07, 2022 12:20 am

Edit (timeline):
(00:15) 68 mkts
(00:20) 68
(00:25) 92
(00:30) 105
(00:39) 125
Sorry about the duff info, never trust a random stranger :) Interesting I didn't know that about the staggered info times, I just start up at 00:01 and see a lot of markets. But I poll every 30mins too so I'm sweeping them up as they're added I guess. I never really watch it.
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blablok
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wearthefoxhat wrote:
Mon Jun 06, 2022 12:04 pm
Was working on something with the Greys during the Greyhound Derby heats and thought I'd to apply it to normal graded racing. :idea:


PB11.36.png

PB11.36R.png
So basically you are taking speed over the first bend position ?
You are backing or laying ?
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 2635
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blablok wrote:
Tue Jun 07, 2022 3:58 am
wearthefoxhat wrote:
Mon Jun 06, 2022 12:04 pm
Was working on something with the Greys during the Greyhound Derby heats and thought I'd to apply it to normal graded racing. :idea:


PB11.36.png

PB11.36R.png
So basically you are taking speed over the first bend position ?
You are backing or laying ?
Yep.

Essentially, I'm trying predict the outcome on times, and then visualise how the race could unfold. I'll also be looking at the 2nd bend positions too. In the 11.36 example, T1 had a 0.10 advantage over T5. (0.08 = 1 length) and a 0.34 advantage over T6 ( about 4 lengths).

In graded racing, it very much depends on how the tracks racing manager sets up the race, and if the track is suited to EP types, or favours late finishers. Also, I would expect the higher graded races to be more reliable. (A6 to A1).

With the greyhound derby, (open races), the races are set up by the draw, influenced only by the seeding (M) or (W) and not the racing manager.

My preference to staking would be to look for value lays (with worst times) that could be denied a clear run. A value lay price could be something in the maria staking price range, <= 11.00.

odds.png
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napshnap
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eightbo wrote:
Tue Jun 07, 2022 1:00 am
A lot of matched bet vol. In dog markets is at wrong prices.
E.g. if we assume SP @ ~100% is about right, and we have 3 steamers and 3 drifters, then all the cash on the way to the "correct' price is wrong
It's like a ball jumping in a casino roulette (I mean this exact process when price seeks its "fair" value and settles down at the SP), you know it will stop sometime but where?
Will it be black after 50 reds in a row? Can you read ball's trajectory when it bounces from roulette edges (matched bet vol. at different prices, ltp)? Should I follow that womans huge bets with a bad-fitting blonde wig on her head?

At least you can be sure that the casino won't kick you out for your card-counting experiments or "gadgets" usage)! And that's why I still love bf.
eightbo
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Location: Malta/Germany

wearthefoxhat wrote:
Tue Jun 07, 2022 8:13 am
Essentially, I'm trying predict the outcome on times, and then visualise how the race could unfold. I'll also be looking at the 2nd bend positions too. In the 11.36 example, T1 had a 0.10 advantage over T5. (0.08 = 1 length) and a 0.34 advantage over T6 ( about 4 lengths).

In graded racing, it very much depends on how the tracks racing manager sets up the race, and if the track is suited to EP types, or favours late finishers. Also, I would expect the higher graded races to be more reliable. (A6 to A1).

With the greyhound derby, (open races), the races are set up by the draw, influenced only by the seeding (M) or (W) and not the racing manager.

My preference to staking would be to look for value lays (with worst times) that could be denied a clear run. A value lay price could be something in the maria staking price range, <= 11.00.
Hi. Interesting approach. Makes a lot of sense.
Do you factor trap bias either in the times recorded or the upcoming race (presumably neither or both) ?

I am of course assuming such a thing matters ... ?
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wearthefoxhat
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eightbo wrote:
Tue Jun 07, 2022 5:36 pm
wearthefoxhat wrote:
Tue Jun 07, 2022 8:13 am
Essentially, I'm trying predict the outcome on times, and then visualise how the race could unfold. I'll also be looking at the 2nd bend positions too. In the 11.36 example, T1 had a 0.10 advantage over T5. (0.08 = 1 length) and a 0.34 advantage over T6 ( about 4 lengths).

In graded racing, it very much depends on how the tracks racing manager sets up the race, and if the track is suited to EP types, or favours late finishers. Also, I would expect the higher graded races to be more reliable. (A6 to A1).

With the greyhound derby, (open races), the races are set up by the draw, influenced only by the seeding (M) or (W) and not the racing manager.

My preference to staking would be to look for value lays (with worst times) that could be denied a clear run. A value lay price could be something in the maria staking price range, <= 11.00.
Hi. Interesting approach. Makes a lot of sense.
Do you factor trap bias either in the times recorded or the upcoming race (presumably neither or both) ?

I am of course assuming such a thing matters ... ?

I don't consider trap bias in the times, but my calculations do take into account the going adjustment made by the track on previous runs. (in a similar way we rely on the clerk of the course in horse racing with their "going stick.")

The final decision though does factor in imponderables relevant to the course. In the example, I would avoid laying T6 at Crayford.

tracks.png

I did 4 races today that worked out well. It seems to hold up using grade A races, where there's plenty of exposed form available.

races.png

I'll post up the Greyhound Derby QF races when I've done them to see how that fares on Saturday.
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wearthefoxhat
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Romford 11:16 Today.

You don't see if too much, any of the favourite backers should count themselves unlucky. T6 DQ'd due to deliberate interference. The T4 went well clear, but the T6 has what's known as fighters pace. It's got great speed to catch a runner, but just wants to fight it and is not interested in the hare. (Won by Sh-hd)

11.16DQ.png
11.16Romf.png
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blablok
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MemphisFlash wrote:
Sun Apr 17, 2022 10:00 pm
Capture.JPG
YOu are a crazy man :)
There was one day when there were 11 losers in a row.
Now i know why sometimes i see £500 or £1000 bets trying to match sometimes in gh markets :D
Vaz0202
Posts: 72
Joined: Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:53 pm

There is something about the looney nature of the greyhound market that appeals. Trading the market is a cruel mistress, she is like the sea.

In particular, I like the people that dump money on that is close to matching and they just yank it out, that false sense of security gone :lol:
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 7694
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Vaz0202 wrote:
Wed Jun 22, 2022 9:28 pm
In particular, I like the people that dump money on that is close to matching and they just yank it out, that false sense of security gone :lol:
I'm my experience more stupid it looks the smarter it is. When you see people flashing monkeys and you're betting ponies then you have to ask why that is.
Archery1969
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Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am

Was it a fluke or did my prediciton modal get the race times correct based on the results. :)
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wearthefoxhat
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Archery1969 wrote:
Thu Jun 23, 2022 11:32 pm
Was it a fluke or did my prediciton modal get the race times correct based on the results. :)
If it's not broke, don't fix it!

I'd probably weight the more recent runs over the later runs and adjust the time(s) if met in trouble on one of the runs. It also depends on what you think the racing manager is trying to do, or not as the case may be.
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