Today's Greyhounds

We've gone to the dogs.
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3205
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

wearthefoxhat wrote:
Wed Apr 27, 2022 12:30 pm
FWIW, I'm looking at the angle, "going against the crowd." I've noticed that the Racing Post Naps/Next Bet (n.b.) can disappoint more often than not and can be overbet. So here's the approach.

In most cases my ratings tend to agree with the tipsters.

The Yarmouth 6.41 is an example in question. The bookies pretty much follow suit. The T3 has a 0.20 advantage (just over 2 lengths)


Yarmouth 6.41.png

Newcastle 4.04

However, once in a while using the same ratings approach, there's a difference. The Racing Post are Nap on T3, Timeform disagree with T5, and my top rated T4, is not mentioned by either. Probably because it's been beaten a long way (in better grade) and starts slow, finding trouble in running.

My view is that it has a 0.10 advantage over the 2nd rated (just over 1 length) and 0.60 over the 3rd rated (around 7 lengths). The grader has given her a fairer chance, it just needs a clearer run. I also noticed the bookies have it @ 10/3, so no forlorn hope in their eyes too.

If I were betting on the race, it would something like;

Trap 4 Win (70% of stake)
Fc T3 xT4 (15% of stake)
Fc T5 x T4 (15% of stake)


Newc 4.04.png

Nice when it works out...

Newc4.04Res.png

It was also a big gamble down from 6.80 to 3.45....

LaidBackHoney.png
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BWhizz
Posts: 22
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 9:57 pm

wearthefoxhat wrote:
Wed Apr 27, 2022 5:59 pm
wearthefoxhat wrote:
Wed Apr 27, 2022 12:30 pm
FWIW, I'm looking at the angle, "going against the crowd." I've noticed that the Racing Post Naps/Next Bet (n.b.) can disappoint more often than not and can be overbet. So here's the approach.

In most cases my ratings tend to agree with the tipsters.

The Yarmouth 6.41 is an example in question. The bookies pretty much follow suit. The T3 has a 0.20 advantage (just over 2 lengths)


Yarmouth 6.41.png

Newcastle 4.04

However, once in a while using the same ratings approach, there's a difference. The Racing Post are Nap on T3, Timeform disagree with T5, and my top rated T4, is not mentioned by either. Probably because it's been beaten a long way (in better grade) and starts slow, finding trouble in running.

My view is that it has a 0.10 advantage over the 2nd rated (just over 1 length) and 0.60 over the 3rd rated (around 7 lengths). The grader has given her a fairer chance, it just needs a clearer run. I also noticed the bookies have it @ 10/3, so no forlorn hope in their eyes too.

If I were betting on the race, it would something like;

Trap 4 Win (70% of stake)
Fc T3 xT4 (15% of stake)
Fc T5 x T4 (15% of stake)


Newc 4.04.png

Nice when it works out...


Newc4.04Res.png


It was also a big gamble down from 6.80 to 3.45....


LaidBackHoney.png
Good stuff 👍🏻
Any of your rating calculations using the poisson distribution stuff you were posting a few months back?
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3205
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

BWhizz wrote:
Wed Apr 27, 2022 6:36 pm

Good stuff 👍🏻
Any of your rating calculations using the poisson distribution stuff you were posting a few months back?
Thanks.

No, binned that a while back. The poisson distribution stuff was loosley based on the form figures, weighting recent runs to less recent runs. More of an experiment at the time.

These are based more on grading, age and time averages. I've tried to finalise a rating that can be compared across all grades. So if the grader wants to drop a runner in grade, it's easier to spot when they are giving certain runners a chance. Also it's easier to spot the "yardstick" ones that they use to compare the overall race competition.

The "against the crowd" approach is when I disagree with the press and there's something else in the race that may have been overlooked.
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BWhizz
Posts: 22
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Thanks for info. Shame on the poisson as seemed to go ok from things you posting.

Think i am going to have to compile some ratings to give me a better way of backing/laying. Currently laying on price movements which works then one win wipes out the days work….same old same old ☹️
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wearthefoxhat
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BWhizz wrote:
Wed Apr 27, 2022 9:11 pm
Thanks for info. Shame on the poisson as seemed to go ok from things you posting.

Think i am going to have to compile some ratings to give me a better way of backing/laying. Currently laying on price movements which works then one win wipes out the days work….same old same old ☹️
Have a look around this website. (free) Might give you some ideas.

https://greyhoundstats.co.uk/graded_averages2.php
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BWhizz
Posts: 22
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Thanks, will have a look through that and see if the thinking cap works at all 😀

Cheers
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napshnap
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liltbrockie wrote:
Wed Apr 27, 2022 4:53 pm
My result today so far of an XGBoost Algorithm to help me, very nicely, lay dogs... Thanks XGBoost!


Screenshot 2022-04-27 165208.jpg
Hmm, 44 sp lay bet - seems like you like to live dangerously mr. Powers!
liltbrockie
Posts: 35
Joined: Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:53 am

napshnap wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 1:29 pm
liltbrockie wrote:
Wed Apr 27, 2022 4:53 pm
My result today so far of an XGBoost Algorithm to help me, very nicely, lay dogs... Thanks XGBoost!


Screenshot 2022-04-27 165208.jpg
Hmm, 44 sp lay bet - seems like you like to live dangerously mr. Powers!
Ha yer.... I am just showing candidates... obviously you wanna stick to the under 15's or so!
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

liltbrockie wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 2:00 pm
.. obviously you wanna stick to the under 15's or so!
'obviously' you need to bet on selections that are in your opinion, the wrong price. And you control your risk with your staking (liability staking). If you limit yourself to a certain price range you'll just reduce your selections and that's never a good idea because profit is a product of turnover.
MattP
Posts: 31
Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2021 9:34 pm

Does anyone know what's going on at Sunderland?

UPDATE - FOUND ON TWITTER.
--
Hare malfunction causing the 18:51 race to be voided and the rest of the meeting abandoned.
liltbrockie
Posts: 35
Joined: Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:53 am

MattP wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:01 pm
Does anyone know what's going on at Sunderland?

UPDATE - FOUND ON TWITTER.
--
Hare malfunction causing the 18:51 race to be voided and the rest of the meeting abandoned.
Watched it happen... dog I laid was about to win lol
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The Silk Run
Posts: 902
Joined: Mon May 14, 2018 12:53 am
Location: United Kingdom

I believe it happens quite often, the mechanical lure malfunctions. You would think track managers would have contingency plans in place, if not they should forfeit and run around the track in costume themselves.
It would probably make it more competitive rather than dogs chasing the pack, and not the decoy :)
liltbrockie
Posts: 35
Joined: Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:53 am

The Silk Run wrote:
Fri Apr 29, 2022 10:02 am
I believe it happens quite often, the mechanical lure malfunctions. You would think track managers would have contingency plans in place, if not they should forfeit and run around the track in costume themselves.
It would probably make it more competitive rather than dogs chasing the pack, and not the decoy :)
Just put a real hare on the track....
Archery1969
Posts: 3192
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am
Location: Newport

Reminds me of that Step Toe & Son film when they bought a blind greyhound. :lol:
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The Silk Run
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Location: United Kingdom

Archery1969 wrote:
Fri Apr 29, 2022 11:06 am
Reminds me of that Step Toe & Son film when they bought a blind greyhound. :lol:
I will have to have a look at that. Thanx for the lead :)
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