Nice when it works out...wearthefoxhat wrote: ↑Wed Apr 27, 2022 12:30 pmFWIW, I'm looking at the angle, "going against the crowd." I've noticed that the Racing Post Naps/Next Bet (n.b.) can disappoint more often than not and can be overbet. So here's the approach.
In most cases my ratings tend to agree with the tipsters.
The Yarmouth 6.41 is an example in question. The bookies pretty much follow suit. The T3 has a 0.20 advantage (just over 2 lengths)
Yarmouth 6.41.png
Newcastle 4.04
However, once in a while using the same ratings approach, there's a difference. The Racing Post are Nap on T3, Timeform disagree with T5, and my top rated T4, is not mentioned by either. Probably because it's been beaten a long way (in better grade) and starts slow, finding trouble in running.
My view is that it has a 0.10 advantage over the 2nd rated (just over 1 length) and 0.60 over the 3rd rated (around 7 lengths). The grader has given her a fairer chance, it just needs a clearer run. I also noticed the bookies have it @ 10/3, so no forlorn hope in their eyes too.
If I were betting on the race, it would something like;
Trap 4 Win (70% of stake)
Fc T3 xT4 (15% of stake)
Fc T5 x T4 (15% of stake)
Newc 4.04.png
It was also a big gamble down from 6.80 to 3.45....