Imo Longevity depends on whether you're using some fundamental feature of market mechanics as opposed to macro/sentimental strategies.
I obvioulsy won't go into specifics but eg 'noise' that always has and always will exist everywhere vs punters' attitude to favourites which comes and goes as edges are seen and then over-exploited.
New Greyhound Automation
- firlandsfarm
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No time is long enough because your system will only remain profitable until others find it.
- ruthlessimon
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Big fan of the following interview. Some really good nuggets in there (& the points on longevity are interesting)firlandsfarm wrote: ↑Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:33 pmNo time is long enough because your system will only remain profitable until others find it.
1. https://blog.quandl.com/interview-with-a-quant-part-one
2. https://blog.quandl.com/interview-with- ... t-part-one
3. https://blog.quandl.com/interview-with- ... t-part-one
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+1
It concerns me that people sometimes make pronouncements on this forum like they are settled fact, when they are guesses (and, yes, I'm probably guilty of this too! ). It's a bit like the parable about the blind men and the elephant.
This is why I ask people for evidence - it's important to have evidence to separate the wheat from the chaff (and to gather it yourself if people are understandably reluctant to share theirs). The three months/a year thing might be based on evidence, for example, but I suspect it's a guesstimate.
It concerns me that people sometimes make pronouncements on this forum like they are settled fact, when they are guesses (and, yes, I'm probably guilty of this too! ). It's a bit like the parable about the blind men and the elephant.
This is why I ask people for evidence - it's important to have evidence to separate the wheat from the chaff (and to gather it yourself if people are understandably reluctant to share theirs). The three months/a year thing might be based on evidence, for example, but I suspect it's a guesstimate.
firlandsfarm wrote: ↑Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:33 pmNo time is long enough because your system will only remain profitable until others find it.
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3mnths, 1year, 10,000 hours the list goes on. I'd imagine the people winning care little about these sound bites and base their approach on something a bit more solid than a few years stats and just get on with it.SweetLyrics wrote: ↑Thu Dec 12, 2019 8:43 pm+1
It concerns me that people sometimes make pronouncements on this forum like they are settled fact, when they are guesses (and, yes, I'm probably guilty of this too! ). It's a bit like the parable about the blind men and the elephant.
This is why I ask people for evidence - it's important to have evidence to separate the wheat from the chaff (and to gather it yourself if people are understandably reluctant to share theirs). The three months/a year thing might be based on evidence, for example, but I suspect it's a guesstimate.firlandsfarm wrote: ↑Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:33 pmNo time is long enough because your system will only remain profitable until others find it.
- ruthlessimon
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Maybe there should be a ban on any strategy related adviceSweetLyrics wrote: ↑Thu Dec 12, 2019 8:43 pmIt concerns me that people sometimes make pronouncements
This is why I ask people for evidence
Riddles/throwaway comments cause hate, & evidence (especially given publicly) causes deep mistrust!!
People still argue or try to pick holes in stuff I've done or comments that I've made and I've spent 20 years of my life doing this! Or sometimes call them riddles, but in reality, you can't compress 20 years of experience into a one-liner easily. You just have to give succinct advice based on your knowledge.
It's so easy to pick holes in anything, that's dead easy. But trading is about looking for an opportunity, not trying to find a reason not to trade. By its very nature, it's ambiguous as well. But that's what appeals to me.
So I've come to the conclusion that you can't force people to understand what you are saying. You have to rely on people finding it. I think others reach the same conclusion, it's not an attempt to mislead, it's just difficult to compress knowledge into a digestible chunk.
It's so easy to pick holes in anything, that's dead easy. But trading is about looking for an opportunity, not trying to find a reason not to trade. By its very nature, it's ambiguous as well. But that's what appeals to me.
So I've come to the conclusion that you can't force people to understand what you are saying. You have to rely on people finding it. I think others reach the same conclusion, it's not an attempt to mislead, it's just difficult to compress knowledge into a digestible chunk.
- ruthlessimon
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Yah, very powerful statement. Assume the market is fair, & we will find fairness. Assume the market is biased, & we will find bias.
Still not easy though, but framing it positively is such a massive help
- MemphisFlash
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still going strong on the greyhounds
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- MemphisFlash
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since friday afternoon
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Very nice, well done.
- MemphisFlash
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getting better
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wow, awesome stuff there.
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Shout out the the darts as well
- firlandsfarm
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I read all you write on a subject I'm interested in Euler and watch all the vids but it never comes right (profitable)! I can't even get the simplest scalp right and therefore steer away from trading and prefer stats and systems. Even my attempts at the easiest of scalps fails. I find stable markets wait for me to place a pair of bets and then the instant I place them one is matched and the other has immediately become 3 or 4 ticks out of the market. It's as if someone has a bot looking for my bets!Euler wrote: ↑Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:21 pmPeople still argue or try to pick holes in stuff I've done or comments that I've made and I've spent 20 years of my life doing this! Or sometimes call them riddles, but in reality, you can't compress 20 years of experience into a one-liner easily. You just have to give succinct advice based on your knowledge.
It's so easy to pick holes in anything, that's dead easy. But trading is about looking for an opportunity, not trying to find a reason not to trade. By its very nature, it's ambiguous as well. But that's what appeals to me.
So I've come to the conclusion that you can't force people to understand what you are saying. You have to rely on people finding it. I think others reach the same conclusion, it's not an attempt to mislead, it's just difficult to compress knowledge into a digestible chunk.
It's not a matter of trying to pick a hole in what any of the experienced contributors here say and certainly not a matter of doubting what you and they clearly do very successfully. Some people have the skill to read a market but I accept I just don't have it.
I used to swing trade securities, never a scalper nor a day trader, and make a small profit from that side of my investments … maybe it's the short-term nature of betting markets, they have much more severe short-term movements compared to mainline share prices and perhaps mostly the finality of the end of the race that I can't overcome. You just don't get that in share markets.
Am I correct in thinking you were a financial markets trader? What type of markets were you active in and how did you make the change to your thinking?
Last edited by firlandsfarm on Wed Dec 18, 2019 11:44 am, edited 2 times in total.