The best way to ensure the system will fail is to sell it! That's not to say the system is a freak but the more people that use it the more the market will be distorted away from the initial edge! So if someone agrees to sell you a system there are two things you can guarantee … 1. the seller has realised they can make more money from selling the system than running it and … 2. the system will stop making profits as soon as people start buying it. Well done Memphis, enjoy it, it's really satisfying to find a profit in Mbytes of data.
New Greyhound Automation
- firlandsfarm
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Last edited by firlandsfarm on Wed Dec 11, 2019 1:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
- ShaunWhite
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Are 212 days and 88,500 dogs enough What people don't understand who want to get into automation is that this 30 weeks is the result of 52 weeks work fulltime leading up to it. Automation isn't a case of just setting up some rules and off you go, it takes just as much effort, if not more, than any other style of trading. When you sit back and make money 'for doing nothing', you've bloody earned it. If you want to buy this one, bidding can start at 2 year's wages.spreadbetting wrote: ↑Wed Dec 11, 2019 11:09 amI'd ask for a 3 month pnl shot before handing over your hard earned, anyone can post up a pretty graph once very few weeks
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We must be doing the same system Shaun, here's my pretty graph since April, 249 days.
Last edited by spreadbetting on Wed Dec 11, 2019 5:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
- ruthlessimon
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3mth aint long enough. Neither is 1yr!
(obviously thou depends on trade style etc)
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But you don't bet in the real world though, Simon, my dogs have been running for around 8years with the same simple strategy and profits have been surprisingly regular and I put that more down to the fact there's a ceiling with the dogs, and horses, that's hard to break.
- ruthlessimon
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Sorry if it came across as an attack. It wasn't, got massive respect for ya.spreadbetting wrote: ↑Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:02 pmBut you don't bet in the real world though, Simon, my dogs have been running for around 8years with the same simple strategy and profits have been surprisingly regular and I put that more down to the fact there's a ceiling with the dogs, and horses, that's hard to break.
Just though I'd give an example as to why 3mth can be misleading. By your logic, you'd have bought my strategy
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All depends on what your strategy is based on, for me dogs are very easy to profit from ,only wish they had more liquidity. Might not be my highest grossing automation but in terms of regularity it's almost akin to having a monthly wage as there's so little variation per month when you chuck in 6,000 or so markets.
- ruthlessimon
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The logic doesn't transfer to nags?spreadbetting wrote: ↑Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:13 pmfor me dogs are very easy to profit from ,only wish they had more liquidity.
Being based purely on sentiment I'd have thought they'd be similar - albeit I've never looked at dogs myself
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Sadly not
- ShaunWhite
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Imo Longevity depends on whether you're using some fundamental feature of market mechanics as opposed to macro/sentimental strategies.
I obvioulsy won't go into specifics but eg 'noise' that always has and always will exist everywhere vs punters' attitude to favourites which comes and goes as edges are seen and then over-exploited.
I obvioulsy won't go into specifics but eg 'noise' that always has and always will exist everywhere vs punters' attitude to favourites which comes and goes as edges are seen and then over-exploited.
- firlandsfarm
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No time is long enough because your system will only remain profitable until others find it.
- ruthlessimon
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Big fan of the following interview. Some really good nuggets in there (& the points on longevity are interesting)firlandsfarm wrote: ↑Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:33 pmNo time is long enough because your system will only remain profitable until others find it.
1. https://blog.quandl.com/interview-with-a-quant-part-one
2. https://blog.quandl.com/interview-with- ... t-part-one
3. https://blog.quandl.com/interview-with- ... t-part-one
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+1
It concerns me that people sometimes make pronouncements on this forum like they are settled fact, when they are guesses (and, yes, I'm probably guilty of this too! ). It's a bit like the parable about the blind men and the elephant.
This is why I ask people for evidence - it's important to have evidence to separate the wheat from the chaff (and to gather it yourself if people are understandably reluctant to share theirs). The three months/a year thing might be based on evidence, for example, but I suspect it's a guesstimate.
It concerns me that people sometimes make pronouncements on this forum like they are settled fact, when they are guesses (and, yes, I'm probably guilty of this too! ). It's a bit like the parable about the blind men and the elephant.
This is why I ask people for evidence - it's important to have evidence to separate the wheat from the chaff (and to gather it yourself if people are understandably reluctant to share theirs). The three months/a year thing might be based on evidence, for example, but I suspect it's a guesstimate.
firlandsfarm wrote: ↑Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:33 pmNo time is long enough because your system will only remain profitable until others find it.
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3mnths, 1year, 10,000 hours the list goes on. I'd imagine the people winning care little about these sound bites and base their approach on something a bit more solid than a few years stats and just get on with it.SweetLyrics wrote: ↑Thu Dec 12, 2019 8:43 pm+1
It concerns me that people sometimes make pronouncements on this forum like they are settled fact, when they are guesses (and, yes, I'm probably guilty of this too! ). It's a bit like the parable about the blind men and the elephant.
This is why I ask people for evidence - it's important to have evidence to separate the wheat from the chaff (and to gather it yourself if people are understandably reluctant to share theirs). The three months/a year thing might be based on evidence, for example, but I suspect it's a guesstimate.firlandsfarm wrote: ↑Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:33 pmNo time is long enough because your system will only remain profitable until others find it.