New Greyhound Automation

We've gone to the dogs.
spreadbetting
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But you don't bet in the real world though, Simon, my dogs have been running for around 8years with the same simple strategy and profits have been surprisingly regular and I put that more down to the fact there's a ceiling with the dogs, and horses, that's hard to break.
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ruthlessimon
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spreadbetting wrote:
Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:02 pm
But you don't bet in the real world though, Simon, my dogs have been running for around 8years with the same simple strategy and profits have been surprisingly regular and I put that more down to the fact there's a ceiling with the dogs, and horses, that's hard to break.
Sorry if it came across as an attack. It wasn't, got massive respect for ya.

Just though I'd give an example as to why 3mth can be misleading. By your logic, you'd have bought my strategy
spreadbetting
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All depends on what your strategy is based on, for me dogs are very easy to profit from ,only wish they had more liquidity. Might not be my highest grossing automation but in terms of regularity it's almost akin to having a monthly wage as there's so little variation per month when you chuck in 6,000 or so markets.
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ruthlessimon
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spreadbetting wrote:
Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:13 pm
for me dogs are very easy to profit from ,only wish they had more liquidity.
The logic doesn't transfer to nags?

Being based purely on sentiment I'd have thought they'd be similar - albeit I've never looked at dogs myself
spreadbetting
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:48 pm


The logic doesn't transfer to nags?
Sadly not
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ShaunWhite
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Imo Longevity depends on whether you're using some fundamental feature of market mechanics as opposed to macro/sentimental strategies.
I obvioulsy won't go into specifics but eg 'noise' that always has and always will exist everywhere vs punters' attitude to favourites which comes and goes as edges are seen and then over-exploited.
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firlandsfarm
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Wed Dec 11, 2019 5:44 pm
3mth aint long enough. Neither is 1yr!
No time is long enough because your system will only remain profitable until others find it.
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ruthlessimon
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firlandsfarm wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:33 pm
ruthlessimon wrote:
Wed Dec 11, 2019 5:44 pm
3mth aint long enough. Neither is 1yr!
No time is long enough because your system will only remain profitable until others find it.
Big fan of the following interview. Some really good nuggets in there (& the points on longevity are interesting)

1. https://blog.quandl.com/interview-with-a-quant-part-one
2. https://blog.quandl.com/interview-with- ... t-part-one
3. https://blog.quandl.com/interview-with- ... t-part-one
SweetLyrics
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+1

It concerns me that people sometimes make pronouncements on this forum like they are settled fact, when they are guesses (and, yes, I'm probably guilty of this too! :lol:). It's a bit like the parable about the blind men and the elephant.

This is why I ask people for evidence - it's important to have evidence to separate the wheat from the chaff (and to gather it yourself if people are understandably reluctant to share theirs). The three months/a year thing might be based on evidence, for example, but I suspect it's a guesstimate.
firlandsfarm wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:33 pm
ruthlessimon wrote:
Wed Dec 11, 2019 5:44 pm
3mth aint long enough. Neither is 1yr!
No time is long enough because your system will only remain profitable until others find it.
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

SweetLyrics wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 8:43 pm
+1

It concerns me that people sometimes make pronouncements on this forum like they are settled fact, when they are guesses (and, yes, I'm probably guilty of this too! :lol:). It's a bit like the parable about the blind men and the elephant.

This is why I ask people for evidence - it's important to have evidence to separate the wheat from the chaff (and to gather it yourself if people are understandably reluctant to share theirs). The three months/a year thing might be based on evidence, for example, but I suspect it's a guesstimate.
firlandsfarm wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:33 pm
ruthlessimon wrote:
Wed Dec 11, 2019 5:44 pm
3mth aint long enough. Neither is 1yr!
No time is long enough because your system will only remain profitable until others find it.
3mnths, 1year, 10,000 hours the list goes on. I'd imagine the people winning care little about these sound bites and base their approach on something a bit more solid than a few years stats and just get on with it.
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ruthlessimon
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SweetLyrics wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 8:43 pm
It concerns me that people sometimes make pronouncements

This is why I ask people for evidence
Maybe there should be a ban on any strategy related advice

Riddles/throwaway comments cause hate, & evidence (especially given publicly) causes deep mistrust!!
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Euler
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People still argue or try to pick holes in stuff I've done or comments that I've made and I've spent 20 years of my life doing this! Or sometimes call them riddles, but in reality, you can't compress 20 years of experience into a one-liner easily. You just have to give succinct advice based on your knowledge.

It's so easy to pick holes in anything, that's dead easy. But trading is about looking for an opportunity, not trying to find a reason not to trade. By its very nature, it's ambiguous as well. But that's what appeals to me.

So I've come to the conclusion that you can't force people to understand what you are saying. You have to rely on people finding it. I think others reach the same conclusion, it's not an attempt to mislead, it's just difficult to compress knowledge into a digestible chunk.
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ruthlessimon
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Euler wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:21 pm
But trading is about looking for an opportunity, not trying to find a reason not to trade.
Yah, very powerful statement. Assume the market is fair, & we will find fairness. Assume the market is biased, & we will find bias.

Still not easy though, but framing it positively is such a massive help
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MemphisFlash
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still going strong on the greyhounds
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MemphisFlash
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since friday afternoon
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