Little Experiment

We've gone to the dogs.
eightbo
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Hate to fuel the negativity fire but I must point out that you've fallen prey to selection bias there Derek in cherrypicking the 6th Fav's P&L.
Punters should in fact be discouraged because the average result of blind-backing favs was -£37.48.
From £179 total bets for the day — that's a 21% loss, worse than the average slot machines!

Only mention it as I know you'll benefit from not doing this in the future.

Also Memphis I'm curious why you hedged when profit achieved a 10% return, seems like it'd just skew the results unnecessarily.
I'm guessing this has proved favourable in the long run for you elsewhere.
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MemphisFlash
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no this was just a test as i wanted to know if people followed blindly any sort of thing like this,
like backing the fav or only backing trap 3 or only following one particular jockey would actually work.
i chose greyhounds for test as there are so many per day and things like weather and conditions have little or no
effect on dogs. This is not a strategy i have ever used. just wanted to know so i set the test up.
I was more pleased that my laptop
stood up to 10 versions of Bet angel being open, along with streaming, and excel all at same time.
eightbo
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That's cool and I get that but why did you decide to hedge for 10p?
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Derek27
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spreadbetting wrote:
Sun Mar 10, 2019 3:47 pm
You should know by now one day's results are hardly indicative of how a market will behave long term , Derek.
I never suggested they are indicative of anything. I was basically saying they are not dismal reading but encouraging.
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Derek27
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eightbo wrote:
Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:49 pm
Hate to fuel the negativity fire but I must point out that you've fallen prey to selection bias there Derek in cherrypicking the 6th Fav's P&L.
Punters should in fact be discouraged because the average result of blind-backing favs was -£37.48.
From £179 total bets for the day — that's a 21% loss, worse than the average slot machines!

Only mention it as I know you'll benefit from not doing this in the future.

Also Memphis I'm curious why you hedged when profit achieved a 10% return, seems like it'd just skew the results unnecessarily.
I'm guessing this has proved favourable in the long run for you elsewhere.
I misread those results, I thought it was the 1st fav that had a loss of £4.60. :oops:
eightbo
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Yeah yeah that's what they all say 8-)
StellaBot
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Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:52 am

Bookmakers used to advertise trap challenges in shops at one time for individual meetings.
Dont know if this happens presently
Eg Trap 1 3/1 Trap 2 5/2 .....Trap 6 3/1
High price around 3/1 prob

Edit
why bookmakers win
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MemphisFlash
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the hedge for 10p was probably a mistake. i put it into the 6th fav first, then copied the rule for the other five.
my thinking at the time was that the 6th fav would vary rarely come in so i was looking to that for greening up
more an insurance thing. and then i wanted an even test, so left it in.
eatyourgreens
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Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 12:53 am

So, if backing all of them produced a loss at the end of the day, would laying them all have shown a profit !! :D :o :shock:
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MemphisFlash
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probably not. i am not going to lay a 6th fav for £1 to lose say £13 when it romps in.
And the first Fav winnings were probably not enough to get into the positive either.
tootall
Posts: 28
Joined: Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:33 am

An interesting experiment but placing bet 1 minute before start time was in my opinion an error. Most money on the dogs comes in last few seconds so what was favourite at 1 minute may well be 2nd 3rd or worse by time the race starts.
Even placing bet 1 second before start sometimes can change especially if race is delayed. I have a strategy loosely based on this concept, I place a bet at 100:1 on my selection at 1 second before race it then takes SP on unmatched bet. This enables me to compare the next day with Betfair’s results at SP.
Mine is not blind there are criteria to be matched, but I do collect the results on a daily basis and surprisingly you can make money by blind selection. I only have 1 years’ worth of results but on average a selection averages £300 to £500 a month profit to £1 stakes.
Attached chart for a month on blindly backing 1 selection at £1 stake at SP.
Capture.PNG
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BetScalper
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tootall wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:20 am
An interesting experiment but placing bet 1 minute before start time was in my opinion an error. Most money on the dogs comes in last few seconds so what was favourite at 1 minute may well be 2nd 3rd or worse by time the race starts.
Even placing bet 1 second before start sometimes can change especially if race is delayed. I have a strategy loosely based on this concept, I place a bet at 100:1 on my selection at 1 second before race it then takes SP on unmatched bet. This enables me to compare the next day with Betfair’s results at SP.
Mine is not blind there are criteria to be matched, but I do collect the results on a daily basis and surprisingly you can make money by blind selection. I only have 1 years’ worth of results but on average a selection averages £300 to £500 a month profit to £1 stakes.
Attached chart for a month on blindly backing 1 selection at £1 stake at SP.
Capture.PNG
He probably chose the 1 minute mark as a number of races either go off early, upto 30 seconds before or races get suspended and never unsuspended well before the start.
eatyourgreens
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Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 12:53 am

MemphisFlash wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:59 am
probably not. i am not going to lay a 6th fav for £1 to lose say £13 when it romps in.
And the first Fav winnings were probably not enough to get into the positive either.
surely the favourite winning will always end in profit because the favourite will always be much less than 5/1 and you will have £5 returned from the other five runners. :D
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MemphisFlash
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run your own test and get back to me.
newaustralian
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What an interesting question. You maybe able to add something to my problem
Work in progress. Laying greyhounds.
On the assumption that a large proportion of races are won by the favourites and that dogs who are in the leading pack at the first corner usually win I have(attempted) to create a method of selecting a greyhound to lay. Using the data available on Betfair I highlight in a field the two slowest starters as well as the two slowest over the distance. If a dog is on both lists it is a lay proposition. Without further restrictions, except not laying the favourite, it has proved marginally successful. However, and this is the help I required as I know little about UK greyhounds, by eliminating certain types of races ( distance and class) as well as tracks etc. the profit could be increased significantly. Would anybody have any suggestions.
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