Afternoon dogs are a graveyard for some reason

We've gone to the dogs.
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marketraisen
Posts: 98
Joined: Sat Oct 20, 2018 3:41 am

I've been running an automated sheet on the both the UK and Aussie dogs for months that has produced upwards of 20,000 bets both backing and laying based on different market setups, showing a pretty incredible +6% over that huge number.

Yet for some reason despite the upswing over a huge sample size, if i had just bet the afternoon meetings in the UK, there would be a loss overall and quite a hefty one at that.

I've looked into everything obvious and I just cant see whats going on thats fundamentally different. The same tracks that run fine in the morning or evening fail for me in the afternoon, the volumes being traded pre race and overall are similar, different race profiles are gathering the expected volumes and in the same time frames (ie short price favs hoovering all the money for and against, lone double digit odds dogs taking expected volumes, bet sizing on tight markets meeting expectations etc) so if theres interference from the Horse Racing its not showing up in the numbers matched. These market conditions comparisons may be different in some races but they arent showing up in the ones I'm betting into.

Even the various stages of the market forming to efficiency in the minutes running up to a race are the same as in the morning/evening schedules. And it isnt happening at all in Austrailia in day v night comparisons.

I just dont understand, I'm at the point now where theres enough real market data and bets settled that I can confidently just dump the afternoon cards without having to rationalise it with some fundamental reason. I could even consider doing the complete opposite of my normal bets at this point to make money from it.


Now when I see 2pm hit I just sigh knowing whats about to happen for the next few hours, getting out at 6.20pm level is a great days work.

Whats going on?
Archery1969
Posts: 3195
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am
Location: Newport

6% on 20,000 bets ?????? :o
marketraisen
Posts: 98
Joined: Sat Oct 20, 2018 3:41 am

My 4 longest losing sequences in a row have all been during the afternoon UK dogs, 30 bets, 25, 25 and 24 in a row, both backing and laying without a hope.

Thats outrageous, the longest losing sequence elsewhere was 20 in the Aussie dogs and then down to the 10-12 range I get to most days. Typically I'm in the sharper end of the market around the 2/3 lowest odds so it rarely goes long before something comes in, especially when theres often multiple bets in a race.

Since last September I have got 40,000 dog bets to mull over, about 4,000 are in the afternoons.
marketraisen
Posts: 98
Joined: Sat Oct 20, 2018 3:41 am

Archery1969 wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 6:29 pm
6% on 20,000 bets ?????? :o
+10 years of losing money before that.
Archery1969
Posts: 3195
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am
Location: Newport

Can’t really comment as I don’t straight back/lay dogs. But I do trade them with an average profit of around 3% per race since October 2019.
marketraisen
Posts: 98
Joined: Sat Oct 20, 2018 3:41 am

Archery1969 wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 6:48 pm
Can’t really comment as I don’t straight back/lay dogs. But I do trade them with an average profit of around 3% per race since October 2019.
Thats still amazing, I clicked on your name and found the greyhound mystique thread which would bore a normal person to tears but I'm enjoying clicking through the many pages :shock:


The only thing I can think of is that the time it takes for an afternoon market to reach some kind of efficiency is slightly less consistent than during other times of day but its not by much and its in both directions, so you would assume that over enough time if there was an issue it would be balanced out?

Part of what I do is take snapshots of how the markets are looking at different levels ie at 108% over or 92% under round I pull the data out and look at each runners volumes, vwaps, how tight the individual runners odds are, what levels money is visibly waiting etc. Then again at 106%, then again at 105%, 104% updating as time moves towards the off, doing a billion calculations and comparisons between levels as they are hit for the first time v the updated numbers to see what moves could come next and where.
That process usually takes about the same amount of time per race in both the UK and Aus dogs morning and night, in the afternoon all of the same data is processed but sometimes its on a slightly different time from (ie 3 minutes v 5 minutes, 10 minutes v 5 minutes).

Whatever it is I'm doing or finding I cant really quantify, I dont even care about the results so much and just want to beat the SP's, its working out but f--k me its annoying wading through the afternoon mire every day.
Atho55
Posts: 637
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:37 pm
Location: Home of Triumph Motorcycles

Having a look at at BF Promo data for 2019, then taking Trap v Time periods @ £10 Back bet.

Grey 2019.jpg
Not sure if that helps as the evening does not look too good either
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Euler
Posts: 24702
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

All the open races are in the evening. The BAGS cards are of lower quality.
marketraisen
Posts: 98
Joined: Sat Oct 20, 2018 3:41 am

Atho55 wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:14 pm
Having a look at at BF Promo data for 2019, then taking Trap v Time periods @ £10 Back bet.


Grey 2019.jpg

Not sure if that helps as the evening does not look too good either
Evening races can be a real mixed bag but I protect myself, I dont bother with Open Racing or Handicaps anymore and often youll have entire cards of them in the Evening. Normal graded racing over any distance is fine at night and performs about the same level as the early morning equivalents, I am not surprised by your table at all.
marketraisen
Posts: 98
Joined: Sat Oct 20, 2018 3:41 am

Euler wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:20 pm
All the open races are in the evening. The BAGS cards are of lower quality.
"lower quality" perhaps as a sporting contest! :twisted:
Far more consistent in gauging potential price movements I've found.
Atho55
Posts: 637
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:37 pm
Location: Home of Triumph Motorcycles

Have no idea what races are better or lesser quality but within your time period these are the results

Race Type that Won.jpg

Race Type that Lost.jpg
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marketraisen
Posts: 98
Joined: Sat Oct 20, 2018 3:41 am

Atho55 wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:59 pm
Have no idea what races are better or lesser quality but within your time period these are the results


Race Type that Won.jpg



Race Type that Lost.jpg
How do I read these? Are these the results assuming you backed each dog in the race?
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3207
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

Atho55 wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:14 pm
Having a look at at BF Promo data for 2019, then taking Trap v Time periods @ £10 Back bet.


Grey 2019.jpg

Not sure if that helps as the evening does not look too good either

It won't be long before those afternoon figures swing over to the morning ones, as there is more interest and smarter bots playing the greys recently.

It's important to adapt to the way the market moves, not fight against it.
marketraisen
Posts: 98
Joined: Sat Oct 20, 2018 3:41 am

wearthefoxhat wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:24 pm
It won't be long before those afternoon figures swing over to the morning ones, as there is more interest and smarter bots playing the greys recently.

Thats the plan here :)
liltbrockie
Posts: 35
Joined: Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:53 am

Hey marketraisen

I have a rather successful lay strategy for the dogs...
Capture.JPG

Green column is successful lays... red is a loss

And the middle column is PROFIT at ~£2 stakes...

Those 2 losing days you see were both as a result of afternoon races going tits up :-(
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