The *Roll* of the trap dice

We've gone to the dogs.
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jimibt
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G'day all,

Bit of *fun* for wednesday.

Got a little flea buzzing in my ear and thought I'd throw it out there in the hope that someone may have had a similar itch.

I've been looking at the *tally* of the winning runners on a session basis on the greys and have *noticed* that altho there is no pattern that could be used to identify winners/losers on this isolated set of results, there are some interesting permutations that tend to be present on any given single day that you wish to peruse.

One in particular (the flea) is that when scanning the trap numbers that won (in a purely sequential order, irrespective of grade/venue etc) I've noticed that it's very unusual (tho not unheard of and certainly haven't seen many 3's in a row) to see adjacent races where the same trap number has won. I'm kinda seeing this a bit like the roll of a dice where there is of course an equal chance that any number will come up but in reality, the distribution is fairly evenly placed so as to rule out 3 succesive 6's for example.

So to the question. Given the neatly analagous nature of dice->traps, is there a mathematical way to approach a strategy that reviews the previous trap number win/lose (on a single day) to lay based on the permutations presented so far??

As mentioned earlier - just a bit of fun and I of course realise that we have to factor in the available odds etc also but just wondered if we can use a probability related approach on something like this. :geek:
weemac
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I think there can be strong track biases in play e.g. when it rains at certain tracks leading to say trap 1 winning more than it should on a given day, but you'd probably have to be aware of local info on each day to make a meaningful analysis. I'd imagine these are factored into SPs by those in the know on the day.
LinusP
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Sounds like you are describing mean reversion, however I don't see how this can show positive EV but break even at best.
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jimibt
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LinusP wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:59 pm
Sounds like you are describing mean reversion, however I don't see how this can show positive EV but break even at best.
yeah -as i said, wednesday afternoon brain teaser.. not something i'd seriously pursue but was hoping the notion may prompt further *outlandish* ideas ;)
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jimibt
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weemac wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:54 pm
I think there can be strong track biases in play e.g. when it rains at certain tracks leading to say trap 1 winning more than it should on a given day, but you'd probably have to be aware of local info on each day to make a meaningful analysis. I'd imagine these are factored into SPs by those in the know on the day.
looks like a quick weather check might be in order then for certain tracks ;)
jamesedwards
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There are strong trap biases at most tracks. The position/angle of the traps, tightness of the bends, lengths of the run-ups, position of the finish line, condition of the track, distribution of race lengths, are just a few of the factors that have influence. These factors wax and wane through different seasons, temperature and precipitation to make it all the more complex.

I've spent hundreds of hours trying to use top-line trap biases to generate a profit at SP and failed so if you're going to try I recommend you need to delve deeper into weather bias at least, probably more.
towelfox
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Id say there is, at times, a bias for the racing line (rails, middle, wide) but there's more than one dog vying for their best line.

If the rail is fast for a given track/weather condition then there's a better chance for the dog that wants it if it's quick enough to be in front at the first bend.

But, if it's too tight they crash and something else wins :)

Graded racing is designed to be closely contested but the graders make mistakes and sometimes the market hasn't got a clue. That's where you can find some profit. Imo, of course.
jamesedwards
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towelfox wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:22 pm
Id say there is, at times, a bias for the racing line (rails, middle, wide) but there's more than one dog vying for their best line.

If the rail is fast for a given track/weather condition then there's a better chance for the dog that wants it if it's quick enough to be in front at the first bend.

But, if it's too tight they crash and something else wins :)

Graded racing is designed to be closely contested but the graders make mistakes and sometimes the market hasn't got a clue. That's where you can find some profit. Imo, of course.
Trap biases absolutely exist. Here is Belle Vue data for example for all the graded races run this year up until the track closed.
Belle Vue.png
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towelfox
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True, but you can't just look at one track, trap and going condition and say here's your winning dog.

This is belle vue A9 graded races over a 120 day period dead last position. Would not likely have wanted to back trap 4.

Probably wouldn't lay it every time either though.
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MemphisFlash
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Capture.JPG

you were saying!!
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