Optimizing a Dutching Strategy

We've gone to the dogs.
Post Reply
User avatar
Thrungus
Posts: 15
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2020 7:40 am

Hi all - first-time post on the forum here, (excitement always has to start somewhere...)

Hopefully someone could provide a bit of advice / assistance on the following. I'm forseeing that this is a bit of a maths challenge and I must admit, my brain isn't up for that!


So I've been playing about with a dutching strategy over the past couple of weeks with some general success. I've found that because the Greyhound markets wobble so much 2mins before the off, it's common to get a decent few ticks above the best available price - and then leave the market with a few pennys to boot.

In short it's very similar to simply dutching the entire market - backing at the current LAY PRICE - waiting a few moments and commonly it'll get matched and happy days.

I'd say I've had at least an 80% strike rate on making small profits - It is definitely profitable.

However (yes the dreaded however)
I've come across many a market when one selection just plunges a little too far / barely can bounce back to the odds you're after - then you take the SP before the off and your profit is out of kilta if that dog goes on to win...

I feel like this is a maths problem at hand: how would I be able to define the furthest point that I could have the price plunge?

For example - 5/6 match - lets say for a potential profit of 50p (of course there are loads of greyhound markets, so this nicely scales). But then 1 just won't get back up to the odds I need to equally make 50p on that selection too...leading to green across the board.
How would I be able to work out the cut-off point? Happy for that selection to simply make zero , or maybe even a tiny loss if it comes in.

I know that there is the dutching override option - but this isn't quite the same as I'm naturally going to be unsure which selection might not make it to the odds I need. Could I alternatively add additional funds to the market and fix this problem?

Could this all be automated?

Hopefully this all makes sense!
User avatar
gazuty
Posts: 2547
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am
Location: Green land :)

Thrungus wrote:
Fri Feb 19, 2021 12:10 pm
Hi all - first-time post on the forum here, (excitement always has to start somewhere...)

Hopefully someone could provide a bit of advice / assistance on the following. I'm forseeing that this is a bit of a maths challenge and I must admit, my brain isn't up for that!


So I've been playing about with a dutching strategy over the past couple of weeks with some general success. I've found that because the Greyhound markets wobble so much 2mins before the off, it's common to get a decent few ticks above the best available price - and then leave the market with a few pennys to boot.

In short it's very similar to simply dutching the entire market - backing at the current LAY PRICE - waiting a few moments and commonly it'll get matched and happy days.

I'd say I've had at least an 80% strike rate on making small profits - It is definitely profitable.

However (yes the dreaded however)
I've come across many a market when one selection just plunges a little too far / barely can bounce back to the odds you're after - then you take the SP before the off and your profit is out of kilta if that dog goes on to win...

I feel like this is a maths problem at hand: how would I be able to define the furthest point that I could have the price plunge?

For example - 5/6 match - lets say for a potential profit of 50p (of course there are loads of greyhound markets, so this nicely scales). But then 1 just won't get back up to the odds I need to equally make 50p on that selection too...leading to green across the board.
How would I be able to work out the cut-off point? Happy for that selection to simply make zero , or maybe even a tiny loss if it comes in.

I know that there is the dutching override option - but this isn't quite the same as I'm naturally going to be unsure which selection might not make it to the odds I need. Could I alternatively add additional funds to the market and fix this problem?

Could this all be automated?

Hopefully this all makes sense!
This is not a maths problem, this is a loss aversion problem.

Any system needs to be able to take account of losses. So you have a choice of either full green out (say 5 seconds before the off) or just letting it run (because as you say there are heaps of dog races and so it should all come out in the wash over the very long run).

I prefer to be all green/red at the off and move on. You can see in this post viewtopic.php?f=11&t=13541&p=247457#p247457 that once I have a strike rate in the 60+% range I am profitable. When the strike rate drops below I am unprofitable.

So, for you it is all a matter of accepting losses and considering whether overall you are profitable after loss taking.
User avatar
Thrungus
Posts: 15
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2020 7:40 am

Appreciate your input on this, gazuty.

Maybe I should simply consider automating this and then dealing with the potential losses without having too much human input.

Also trying to work out when the best time is to enter the market based on how much money has been matched so far. Are the gaps between odds based off of liquidity or the time left on the market? Please excuse my basic questions :-)
Post Reply

Return to “Trading Greyhound racing”