Greyhound Musings

We've gone to the dogs.
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wearthefoxhat
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sniffer66 wrote:
Sun Jul 03, 2022 7:28 am
$10 of $10k raised. Hahaha
Micro stakes compounding, he could do it!
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wearthefoxhat
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Thought I'd revisit Pelaw Grange again for their Sunday meeting.

PG 1.13.png

Even accounting for the Trap 1 bias, in this race T3 looks to have been given a chance with a clear run opportunity and a drop in grade recently. However, I can see T1 capitalise if it falters. The Racing Post tip the T1, so that could be a negative value wise. No actual prices up yet.
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wearthefoxhat
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Pelaw Grange Result

PG1.13R.png

Didn't anticipate the T5 trapping so well. (The racing manager may ask a question about it's overall improvement). Encouraging I found the market leader in the race, others read the race in the same way, wrong result though.
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wearthefoxhat
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The Romford 1.09 race seemed to work out okay, but when value betting, winners can be missed. (applied a Min odds factor 1.30)


Romf 1.09.png
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MemphisFlash
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Location: Leicester

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wearthefoxhat
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MemphisFlash wrote:
Tue Jul 05, 2022 1:26 pm
Capture.PNG
Got lots of good info all in one place there,
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wearthefoxhat
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Getting some consistency. Monmore's not a track I'd normally look at, although it's a fair one.

Mon 3.58R.png

The clear TR was also good value, courtesy of the T1 that went off at 7/4f?! The winning time was almost spot on, so maybe I should include Monmore on my list.
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MemphisFlash
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Monmore Fav stats
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wearthefoxhat
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MemphisFlash wrote:
Fri Jul 08, 2022 4:48 pm
Monmore Fav stats

Capture.PNG
Nice stats for value layers/backers. :idea:

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I only focussed on 3 qualifying races today.

Kins 12.21R.png
My TR not mentioned in the first 3 with timeform.

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Mon 2.52.png
Same as previous race, interesting.


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Monm 5.08.png

Of course we both agree and it misses the break. :roll:

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Overall consistency is still there with good track/race/grade selectivity.
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wearthefoxhat
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Maybe too good to be true?

PGr 11.58.png

T3 should get first run on T2. T1 could cause some crowding.
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wearthefoxhat
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The puppy (T2) ran well, T3 was fair value, but did get crowded with an average break.

11.58R.png
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Shaung89
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wearthefoxhat wrote:
Sun Jul 10, 2022 11:17 am
Maybe too good to be true?


PGr 11.58.png


T3 should get first run on T2. T1 could cause some crowding.
How do you get the 'ratings'? Are these scraped from the post or are you attributing points based on certain metrics to generate your own?
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wearthefoxhat
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Shaung89 wrote:
Sun Jul 10, 2022 5:54 pm
wearthefoxhat wrote:
Sun Jul 10, 2022 11:17 am
Maybe too good to be true?


PGr 11.58.png


T3 should get first run on T2. T1 could cause some crowding.
How do you get the 'ratings'? Are these scraped from the post or are you attributing points based on certain metrics to generate your own?

The ratings are calculated in the same way the Betting Tissue Tool is set up within Inform Racing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gbM0-9g6xFU

The form metrics are ones, from the Racing Post Form cards, that I feel are the most significant to produce an overall rating. It's then a question of seeing if there's value backs or value lays.

The following are all factored into the mix;

Time(s)
Clean run potential
Age
Grade/Class
Track Bias/Advantage

Certain tracks/grades/form lines are preferred, so essentially means there are only 4-5 races a day to focus on.
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wearthefoxhat
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4 races covered today.

Overall contrasting results, but still promising going forward.

S1.png

S2.png
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wearthefoxhat
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Still encouraging results going forward. I've noticed between my TR and the Timeform TR, we invariably get the winner. If we both agree on the TR, then it tends to go tits up.

Kins 11.06R.png
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