Greyhound Musings

We've gone to the dogs.
sniffer66
Posts: 1666
Joined: Thu May 02, 2019 8:37 am

I'm trying some automated straight lays using a combinaton of bias, speed, 1st and last bend position average over previous 5 races, Whether tipped on RP, and a few other form stats. Hit 90% SR yesterday so slightly hopeful. very early doors though.
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3205
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

sniffer66 wrote:
Fri Jul 01, 2022 11:12 am
wearthefoxhat wrote:
Fri Jul 01, 2022 11:05 am
More musings.

Just looking at a way to predict times based on the probability of a clear run/trap bias/current form, by essentially formulising the data and producing a set of times specific to each runner under current race conditions.

Based on this hypothesis, T2 "looks" to be a false favourite in the following race. Kinsley 12:06


Kins 12.06.png
Regardless of the other data, this morning's bias code returns T2/T3 as the lowest no. of winners. With 2 being the lowest


Capture.JPG

Yep, worked out well.
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wearthefoxhat
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sniffer66 wrote:
Fri Jul 01, 2022 11:14 am
I'm trying some automated straight lays using a combinaton of bias, speed, 1st and last bend position average over previous 5 races, Whether tipped on RP, and a few other form stats. Hit 90% SR yesterday so slightly hopeful. very early doors though.
90% is sweet!

Anything tipped by the racing post, I'd be tempted to downgrade its' chances. :)

To be fair, they do well in the open races compared to the graded ones.
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3205
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

wearthefoxhat wrote:
Fri Jul 01, 2022 11:05 am
More musings.

Just looking at a way to predict times based on the probability of a clear run/trap bias/current form, by essentially formulising the data and producing a set of times specific to each runner under current race conditions.

Based on this hypothesis, T2 "looks" to be a false favourite in the following race. Kinsley 12:06


Kins 12.06.png


Kinsley 12.06 result.

Kins12.06R.png

Based on the comments, the race looked a clean one with a winning time of 28.34 (28.44 was predicted).
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wearthefoxhat
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Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

Musings+

The Romford 10:31 today is an interesting one mainly due to the progress of T1 Orange Aoife

Orange Aoife.png

From Jun 7th, started off in an A7, in 3 runs, now in an A2 and crushing all before them, even when the racing manager double jumps it in grade!

The old adage, "follow a bitch in form" holds true for this one, and it's only a Dec 2020 pup.

What does my algo predict?

Romf 10.31.png

A competitive A2 with four of the runners likely to beat the Par time, but, with a similar run as last time, still has a length in hand and that doesn't account for further improvement. The clear run principle and a favourable T1 draw, can only see one result.
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Realrocknrolla
Posts: 1903
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:15 pm

wearthefoxhat wrote:
Sat Jul 02, 2022 9:44 am
Musings+

The Romford 10:31 today is an interesting one mainly due to the progress of T1 Orange Aoife


Orange Aoife.png


From Jun 7th, started off in an A7, in 3 runs, now in an A2 and crushing all before them, even when the racing manager double jumps it in grade!

The old adage, "follow a bitch in form" holds true for this one, and it's only a Dec 2020 pup.

What does my algo predict?


Romf 10.31.png


A competitive A2 with four of the runners likely to beat the Par time, but, with a similar run as last time, still has a length in hand and that doesn't account for further improvement. The clear run principle and a favourable T1 draw, can only see one result.
Give this a watch. Keep em coming!
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MemphisFlash
Posts: 2126
Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 10:12 pm
Location: Leicester

stats at a glance 10:31

Capture.PNG
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Atho55
Posts: 637
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:37 pm
Location: Home of Triumph Motorcycles

Trap 3 might be a close rival..

Grey Win% by Trap.jpg
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sniffer66
Posts: 1666
Joined: Thu May 02, 2019 8:37 am

wearthefoxhat wrote:
Fri Jul 01, 2022 1:11 pm
sniffer66 wrote:
Fri Jul 01, 2022 11:14 am
I'm trying some automated straight lays using a combinaton of bias, speed, 1st and last bend position average over previous 5 races, Whether tipped on RP, and a few other form stats. Hit 90% SR yesterday so slightly hopeful. very early doors though.
90% is sweet!

Anything tipped by the racing post, I'd be tempted to downgrade its' chances. :)

To be fair, they do well in the open races compared to the graded ones.

Now at a cumulative 91% after yesterday. Need a good few months in now.
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3205
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

Romford 10:31 Result

Rom10.31R.png

Winning Time 24.30 (Predicted 24.23)

T6 seemed to get away sharpish today. (fairly recently dropped in grade) T1 still ran a fair race, no excuses. T3,T4,T5 all got in their own way.
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wearthefoxhat
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MemphisFlash wrote:
Sat Jul 02, 2022 10:24 am
stats at a glance 10:31


Capture.PNG
Saw the other ones posted. What are the key pieces of info to look out for?
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wearthefoxhat
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Atho55 wrote:
Sat Jul 02, 2022 10:32 am
Trap 3 might be a close rival..


Grey Win% by Trap.jpg

Nice stats. Yep, T3's record a fair one there.
Vaz0202
Posts: 158
Joined: Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:53 pm

MemphisFlash wrote:
Sat Jul 02, 2022 10:24 am
stats at a glance 10:31


Capture.PNG
Really impressive interface!!
sniffer66
Posts: 1666
Joined: Thu May 02, 2019 8:37 am

$10 of $10k raised. Hahaha
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