Greyhound Musings

We've gone to the dogs.
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wearthefoxhat
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Thought I'd post up thoughts on the upcoming Greyhound Derby. The Quarter Finals are on Saturday and the recent form is starting to take shape.

The market makers seem to have the measure of most of the runners, so I thought I'd do a list anyway and cover the 4 heats too.

Times24.png

Heats 1 & 2

Heats1-2.png
In heat 1, Kildare runs well from T1. The next 4 runners barely a length covers them, if T3 breaks as it has been doing, then will qualify.

In heat 2, Ballinabola Ed from T5, has the 2 moderate starters around him, so looks set for a clear run, T1 should get round ok to qualify too.

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Heats3-4.png
In heat 3, Lautaro from T6 prefers middle traps to utilise it's best break, T3 or T4 could get first run. Not sure about T1 (i could be laying)

In heat 4, Singalong Sally from T4 looks solid and set for a clear run, T5 looks strong enough to qualify too.


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wearthefoxhat
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Thought I'd add this video about the Derby QF's tonight. It explains important aspects when reviewing greyhound races.


https://www.sportystuff.tv/derby-lanes-the-quarters/
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wearthefoxhat
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Great to watch, certainly a few surprises!

QUFinals.png


Odds before tonights draw @ 9.30pm


Pre-DrawSF.png
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SteadySlobbin
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I caught this race last night, was good race, fav turned over.

Looked like a good crowd there. I like how Towcester make their flag guy dress up as one of the droogs from a clockwork orange, it’s a nice touch!
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wearthefoxhat
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SteadySlobbin wrote:
Sun Jun 12, 2022 6:20 am
I caught this race last night, was good race, fav turned over.

Looked like a good crowd there. I like how Towcester make their flag guy dress up as one of the droogs from a clockwork orange, it’s a nice touch!
That's right, I couldn't quite work out what he was wearing, make sense..I think...

Yep, a few turn ups in the market. Felt the fav had peeked too early, as some runners take time to adjust and can improve at the right time.
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wearthefoxhat
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As the QF's were fresh in mind, here are the Semi-Finals and the predicted qualifying list.

PredTimes.png

Semi-Final - Heat 1
Derby 7.48.png
T2 Romeo Magico has a couple of lengths in hand of T5 Signet Goofy, but T5 is the only unbeaten runner and is tough to pass. T6 Faughan Rebel, out wide, could avoid any trouble and plod on in the last qualifying position.

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Semi-Final - Heat 2
Derby 8.05.png
T6 Priceless Jet certainly stepped up in QF with a track record, as the only wide runner, should qualify. T5 Lautoro might trap better this time, (needs to), T2 Kildare should battle on for other qualifying place, T1 Hello Hammond might enjoy it's trap position and improve again, by taking advantage if others slip up.


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wearthefoxhat
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Latest odds for tonights Semi-Finals.

Towc7.48SF1.png
Towc8.05SF2.png
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wearthefoxhat
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Update from the qualifiers listing. (SF)

SFRes.png
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wearthefoxhat
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Greyhound Derby Final on Saturday 25th June @ 9.15pm.

DerbyF.png
Odds.png

About a length between the first 3 in the betting, so the break and run to the first bend will obviously be crucial.

T2 Kildare appears to be granted a clear run to the bend as T1 & T3 are slower starters. Broke well in the SF and will need to again in the final.
T4 Romeo Magico should also get clear sight at the 1st bend ahead of T3, but will be battling T2 on the inside for early pace.
T6 Priceless Jet, one of the older runners, the only wide runner, holds the track record, and can battle on well at the finish.

My view is T6 Priceless Jet is better value and if within a length of the other 2 runners around the 3rd bend, can pick them up in an exciting head bobber!
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wearthefoxhat
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Small tweaks, changes things a little.

Odds are taken from Ladbrokes (usually the worst)

DerbyF.png

Previous comments still stand. Market has things about right as each one look set for clear run(s). That would suit T6 Priceless Jet more as it has the extra pace from the 3rd bend to pick up T2 Kildare & T4 Romeo Magico and the times in the book for confirmation.
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Realrocknrolla
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Keep the posts coming. Always enjoy your write ups!!

TY
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ShaunWhite
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I can see the bookie price on your screen but unless I'm missing something I can't see yours. How are you converting your speed number into a win probability?
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wearthefoxhat
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Sat Jun 25, 2022 5:02 pm
I can see the bookie price on your screen but unless I'm missing something I can't see yours. How are you converting your speed number into a win probability?
Using something on the lines of the betting tissue tool ratings approach (Inform Racing) https://www.informracing.com/betting-tissue-tool-key/

It looks something on the lines of: to a 100% book using Ladbrokes early prices.

DerbyValue.png
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getagrip68
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I love Derby night, managed to get to Wimbledon a good few years back, it was a kip but the atmosphere was electric. I've been to Shelbourne for a round of the Oaks but it must be tremendous for the Derby over there.

For what it's worth I threw these at my graded spreadsheet and came up with Kildare.

Good luck everyone and to all involved!
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ShaunWhite
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wearthefoxhat wrote:
Sat Jun 25, 2022 6:21 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Sat Jun 25, 2022 5:02 pm
I can see the bookie price on your screen but unless I'm missing something I can't see yours. How are you converting your speed number into a win probability?
Using something on the lines of the betting tissue tool ratings approach (Inform Racing) https://www.informracing.com/betting-tissue-tool-key/

It looks something on the lines of: to a 100% book using Ladbrokes early prices.


DerbyValue.png
Price = Sum of all ratings / rating?

That's a fair way for doing a one off price estimate. Other methods can be seriously hard work. Ratings -> odds is a bit of a dark art, the one área where logic goes in the bin because best doesn't mean its always the winner.
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