Greyhound Musings

We've gone to the dogs.
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wearthefoxhat
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getagrip68 wrote:
Sat Jun 25, 2022 6:54 pm
I love Derby night, managed to get to Wimbledon a good few years back, it was a kip but the atmosphere was electric. I've been to Shelbourne for a round of the Oaks but it must be tremendous for the Derby over there.

For what it's worth I threw these at my graded spreadsheet and came up with Kildare.

Good luck everyone and to all involved!
Good luck as well.

I use to go watch the Derby when it was held as White City... :shock: I also attended Wembley greyhounds fairly regularly too.
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wearthefoxhat
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Sat Jun 25, 2022 7:10 pm
wearthefoxhat wrote:
Sat Jun 25, 2022 6:21 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Sat Jun 25, 2022 5:02 pm
I can see the bookie price on your screen but unless I'm missing something I can't see yours. How are you converting your speed number into a win probability?
Using something on the lines of the betting tissue tool ratings approach (Inform Racing) https://www.informracing.com/betting-tissue-tool-key/

It looks something on the lines of: to a 100% book using Ladbrokes early prices.


DerbyValue.png
Price = Sum of all ratings / rating?

That's a fair way for doing a one off price estimate. Other methods can be seriously hard work. Ratings -> odds is a bit of a dark art, the one área where logic goes in the bin because best doesn't mean its always the winner.
I'm sure there are some better ways that exist out there.

With the BTT idea, I can focus on the data variables I prefer and weight them accordingly, maybe my own "dark art" version going forward.
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ShaunWhite
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getagrip68 wrote:
Sat Jun 25, 2022 6:54 pm
I love Derby night, managed to get to Wimbledon a good few years back, it was a kip but the atmosphere was electric.
Can't believe it's been shut for 5yrs..... I used to teach my lad maths at Wimbledon dogs when he was 5-8ish. I'd give him 50p a race and he could keep any profit....and of course there was rarely any. They were good lessons about casual gambling being a mugs game, he hasn't had a bet since and he's 30 now. :?
SteadySlobbin
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I’m going to go for Trap 6 Priceless Jet. Just a guess, no logic!

Good luck to everybody.
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ShaunWhite
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wearthefoxhat wrote:
Sat Jun 25, 2022 7:25 pm
I'm sure there are some better ways that exist out there.
Ones that combine BTT, historic similar dogs, and the current market..... Life's too short tbh :)
SteadySlobbin
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Trap 4 wins. Well done to Romeo Magico!

The market kind of held its shape didn’t it, dogs all seemed to find their price early, no mad late moves like on horses. Bit of money for the 3 dog. Over 100k matched I think.
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wearthefoxhat
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Final result.

Final.png

Pretty much expected overall, except T6 never quite got the momentum swing to challenge off the last bend.
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wearthefoxhat
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Just another musing based on other stuff posted.

The Derby final demonstrated, the importance of a clear run. The graded fayre is a little more intriguing as the grader (R.M.) utlimately shapes the race overall. All that can be done is try to decipher their thinking and decide how the race may pan out.

Pelaw Grange 1.44 (26th June 2022)

PGr1.44.png

T3 tends to miss its' break but has good EP. If it breaks properly, it's all over. T5 will be on the premises if a clear run and any early bumping amongst other runners. A couple of these have been dropped in grade in the last few runs.

Timeform track hints suggest;
TP.png
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wearthefoxhat
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PGr1.44R.png

T1 ran well, picking up T3 near the line. (missed break again). T5 crowded at the 2nd bend. Could be something in the Trap 1 bias mentioned by timeform.
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wearthefoxhat
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More musings.


Hove 3.11 (28th June)

Hove 3.11.png
Ratings suggest it's between T4 & T3. (Market has the order about right)

T4 seems set up for a clear and looks good value even with Ladbrokes... :shock:
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wearthefoxhat
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Bit of a damp squib that one. Bit of a messy race by the looks of it.


Hove3.11R.png
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sniffer66
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wearthefoxhat wrote:
Sun Jun 26, 2022 5:33 pm
PGr1.44R.png


T1 ran well, picking up T3 near the line. (missed break again). T5 crowded at the 2nd bend. Could be something in the Trap 1 bias mentioned by timeform.

Interesting on the trap bias. I know long term trap bias has been disproved but I created some code this week to scrape wins per trap over the last 5 meetings. B=1, C=2 etc

T1\T2 are definitely running hot at Pelaw Grange atm. Col H is the No of meetings by the way, Pelaw only has 4 meets in the timeform results archive.

Unsure if there is any edge here though as I assume the graders will attempt to level up each trap over time. But plotting the trend over time for each trap might be an option


Capture.JPG
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wearthefoxhat
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sniffer66 wrote:
Thu Jun 30, 2022 10:09 am
wearthefoxhat wrote:
Sun Jun 26, 2022 5:33 pm
PGr1.44R.png


T1 ran well, picking up T3 near the line. (missed break again). T5 crowded at the 2nd bend. Could be something in the Trap 1 bias mentioned by timeform.

Interesting on the trap bias. I know long term trap bias has been disproved but I created some code this week to scrape wins per trap over the last 5 meetings. B=1, C=2 etc

T1\T2 are definitely running hot at Pelaw Grange atm. Col H is the No of meetings by the way, Pelaw only has 4 meets in the timeform results archive.

Unsure if there is any edge here though as I assume the graders will attempt to level up each trap over time. But plotting the trend over time for each trap might be an option



Capture.JPG

Interesting info thanks.
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wearthefoxhat
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More musings.

Just looking at a way to predict times based on the probability of a clear run/trap bias/current form, by essentially formulising the data and producing a set of times specific to each runner under current race conditions.

Based on this hypothesis, T2 "looks" to be a false favourite in the following race. Kinsley 12:06

Kins 12.06.png
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sniffer66
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wearthefoxhat wrote:
Fri Jul 01, 2022 11:05 am
More musings.

Just looking at a way to predict times based on the probability of a clear run/trap bias/current form, by essentially formulising the data and producing a set of times specific to each runner under current race conditions.

Based on this hypothesis, T2 "looks" to be a false favourite in the following race. Kinsley 12:06


Kins 12.06.png
Regardless of the other data, this morning's bias code returns T2/T3 as the lowest no. of winners. With 2 being the lowest

Capture.JPG
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