(BLOG) Laying the Lame: Betting against the odds favorites

[Dogfather]

I'm starting this thread to keep a journal of my lay betting strategy on favorites. I've developed my own unique system, and I'd like to share its outcomes with the community here.

My objectives are twofold:

1. To maintain a detailed record of my bets - This will help me track my progress, analyze my strategies, and improve over time.
2.To find a partner or investor on Betfair - Unfortunately, Betfair does not accept players from my country, so I'm looking for someone who could collaborate with me or possibly handle the betting aspect on this platform.

If anyone is interested in collaborating or has experience with similar strategies, I'd love to hear from you. Feel free to ask questions or share your thoughts as we go along.

Looking forward to sharing this journey with you all!

[Dogfather]

There are few good (bad) favorites today..

03.09

Oxford

11:21 (R4) Grade: (A4) Distance: 450m Spot On Bud

13:19 (R11) Grade: (A4) Distance: 450m Pincher Mac


Perry bar

14:36 (R1) Grade: (D3) Distance: 275m Girl Ina Rush

14:54 (R2) Grade: (A7) Distance: 480m Blazeaway Georgi

16:28 (R7) Grade: (HP) Distance: 480m Brickey Chief

[Euler]

If you have something that works, keep it to yourself and scale it.

When I first started somebody offered me £10k in capital for an equal share of future profits. I almost took it, but thought better and it's saved me millions.

Feel free to post up some selections. But we are a battle hardened bunch here, who have seen and do it all. So expect a few comments along those lines.

Good luck!

[Dogfather]

If you have something that works, keep it to yourself and scale it.

When I first started somebody offered me £10k in capital for an equal share of future profits. I almost took it, but thought better and it's saved me millions.

Feel free to post up some selections. But we are a battle hardened bunch here, who have seen and do it all. So expect a few comments along those lines.

Good luck!

Thanks for the heads-up, appreciate it. I'm not planning to reveal the details of my strategy, but I need a partner with a Betfair account. And yeah, I'll keep posting those "lame dogs".

[Kai]

I'm not planning to reveal the details of my strategy

Post enough of these and you probably won't need to!

[Fugazi]

Mmm new here and already profitable seeking investment


I think Euler knows the kind of responses are incoming

[Kai]

Well not every new poster is new to BF.

Sounds like OP just needs an account, not a partner. What else can one comment really, you can read the post or read the poster.

[Fugazi]

Well not every new poster is new to BF.

Sounds like OP just needs an account, not a partner. What else can one comment really, you can read the post or read the poster.

Yeah very true, he isn't asking for money I've become too cynical

[Dogfather]

Yesterday's results:
2 wins
3 losses

A really terrible day.. I decided not to bet on handicap races and focus more on those grades that are better for me.

Bets for today:

Monmore

14:07 (R12) Grade: (A7) Distance: 480m Tibsy Wibsy

Harlow

10:32 (R1) Grade: (D4) Distance: 238m Johns Marvel
11:21 (R4) Grade: (D4) Distance: 238m Geneva Zoey
13:19 (R11) Grade: (A6) Distance: 415m Ballykevin Dream
13:37 (R12) Grade: (D4) Distance: 238m Lagile Canvas

[Dogfather]

Yesterday's results:
4 wins
1 loss

That's a whole different story! Here's what it means to not bet on handicaps and to focus on the right grades. In fact, for HP and OR races, I'm developing a separate strategy; I think there's potential there too (I'm talking about "Back" bets). Today is our "Kinsley day" - it's like Christmas for lay bets, except it comes several times a week!

Our limping friends for today are:

Kinsley

14:36 (R1) Grade: (D4) Distance: 268m Mineola Bam Bam
14:54 (R2) Grade: (A5) Distance: 462m Grumpy Pugwash
15:32 (R4) Grade: (D4) Distance: 268m Endova Zoey
17:06 (R9) Grade: (A4) Distance: 462m Burkos Ellie
17:43 (R11) Grade: (A8) Distance: 462m Topshelf Anne

[Anbell]

Some advice: None of this means anything without price.

[Dogfather]

Some advice: None of this means anything without price.

You are right about that. However, I see no point in publishing the suggested odds, as in practice they are always different. Moreover, the initial odds change significantly by the start of the race, and the favorite often changes as well. I can only give general advice: Do not make lay bets with odds higher than 4 (try to get them below 3.5), and the earlier you place your bet, the better. Typically, by the start of the race, it's already too late to place bets.

[Anbell]

Some advice: None of this means anything without price.

You are right about that. However, I see no point in publishing the suggested odds, as in practice they are always different. Moreover, the initial odds change significantly by the start of the race, and the favorite often changes as well. I can only give general advice: Do not make lay bets with odds higher than 4 (try to get them below 3.5), and the earlier you place your bet, the better. Typically, by the start of the race, it's already too late to place bets.

Terrific advice.

[Fugazi]

OP, with some help of gpt I calculated the below. I assume all dogs are laid at 3-1 even stakes. Room for 5% error margin on ROI

For 99% confidence, you would need approximately 498 bets.
For 99.9% confidence, you would need approximately 812 bets.
For 99.99% confidence, you would need approximately 1,135 bets.

With a 1% margin of error:

99% confidence: approximately 12,442 bets.
99.9% confidence: approximately 20,308 bets.
99.99% confidence: approximately 28,387 bets.


So OP, for this thread to give any real credit, at 5 bets a day I'd need at least 6 months and even then its still a bit of a punt to invest, increasingly so the smaller your ROI.

However, your strategy is similar to ones that I know Archery has used in the past successfully so you're certainly not far off a winning strategy if it isn't already correct

[Dogfather]

OP, with some help of gpt I calculated the below. I assume all dogs are laid at 3-1 even stakes. Room for 5% error margin on ROI

For 99% confidence, you would need approximately 498 bets.
For 99.9% confidence, you would need approximately 812 bets.
For 99.99% confidence, you would need approximately 1,135 bets.

With a 1% margin of error:

99% confidence: approximately 12,442 bets.
99.9% confidence: approximately 20,308 bets.
99.99% confidence: approximately 28,387 bets.


So OP, for this thread to give any real credit, at 5 bets a day I'd need at least 6 months and even then its still a bit of a punt to invest, increasingly so the smaller your ROI.

However, your strategy is similar to ones that I know Archery has used in the past successfully so you're certainly not far off a winning strategy if it isn't already correct

Sorry, I'm new here... Which Archery are you talking about? Is there somewhere I can check out his strategy to compare it with mine?