(BLOG) Laying the Lame: Betting against the odds favorites

[Archery1969]

What's the entry point/time ?

Process starts the moment a market is formed, at that point your profit expectation is x, then as prices slowly contract, your profit expectation is y and y slowly contracts as you count down to the start time. But you set your max/min profit expectation at the very start. So regardless of winner or loser or start/end price you make z profit.

But you can’t just do that blind, you need some idea as to runner and price. Because even at the market process start some runners and prices will be wrong unless they all begin at 1.01 and 1000 on either side etc.

[ForFolksSake]

Process starts the moment a market is formed, at that point your profit expectation is x, then as prices slowly contract, your profit expectation is y and y slowly contracts as you count down to the start time. But you set your max/min profit expectation at the very start. So regardless of winner or loser or start/end price you make z profit.

But you can’t just do that blind, you need some idea as to runner and price. Because even at the market process start some runners and prices will be wrong unless they all begin at 1.01 and 1000 on either side etc.

Basically, from the start, thought you might say that, I can understand why you 'sold out' ( stamina sapping )

[Fugazi]

Crucially, what's the entry point/time ?

As early as possible without exhausting transaction limit I expect

Edit: just saw replies on new page.

[Fugazi]

My old thread morphed into:

Last grade ran
Last distance ran
Last time ran
Last sp

And

Current grade
Current distance

And

Offering odds between the extreme prices on offer based on a value percentage which ranges between 100% to 20%. All trades are closed 20 seconds before the official start time.

There are 2 other main ingredients which I am unable to post due to NDA agreements as I sold the system and now just get a monthly royalty fee.

My main reason for doing so was because I couldn’t scale up anymore and I wanted to concentrate on doing what makes me happy.

However, given the above, I’m sure one or two on here and Peter/Euler will easily figure out the missing parts.

Anyway, good luck.

Wow, not heard of systems being properly sold before i.e NDAs. IMO a good move price dependent, never know when someone will decide racing greyhounds is cruel and should be banned, or taxes, or other issues. Though also whoever bought it is probably reading this.

It was a sports betting company which I can’t name. They took the mechanics of it and applied to other sports. So the royalties I get come from any sport they chose to apply it too. Obviously the inputs were made dynamic per sport but the principles remained. This allowed them to scale up on other sports without spooking the individual market, which you would on dogs at some point.

They have deep pockets and were able to further enhance the infrastructure side of placing the actual trades.

I probably could have done the entire thing myself but it would have taken allot of up front investment and in the end I couldn’t be bothered.

To use the old saying, somebody else takes all the risk and costs, I just get a monthly payment which is more than enough for my needs…

Sounds like a dream then as the royalties will be honoured. Did they find you or you find them? I imagine they get thousands contacting them with a "system"

Cool stuff though!

[Archery1969]

Wow, not heard of systems being properly sold before i.e NDAs. IMO a good move price dependent, never know when someone will decide racing greyhounds is cruel and should be banned, or taxes, or other issues. Though also whoever bought it is probably reading this.

It was a sports betting company which I can’t name. They took the mechanics of it and applied to other sports. So the royalties I get come from any sport they chose to apply it too. Obviously the inputs were made dynamic per sport but the principles remained. This allowed them to scale up on other sports without spooking the individual market, which you would on dogs at some point.

They have deep pockets and were able to further enhance the infrastructure side of placing the actual trades.

I probably could have done the entire thing myself but it would have taken allot of up front investment and in the end I couldn’t be bothered.

To use the old saying, somebody else takes all the risk and costs, I just get a monthly payment which is more than enough for my needs…

Sounds like a dream then as the royalties will be honoured. Did they find you or you find them? I imagine they get thousands contacting them with a "system"

Cool stuff though!

A few years back I applied for a job at the firm. Didn’t get it but remained friends with the senior technical manager. After Covid we met up for lunch in London, he asked what I was upto, gave him the general process, then met up with his boss and things moved rapidly from there. They then asked me to join their setup but I refused for various reasons. But obviously, sold them the idea, process and finer details. Gave me a lump sum plus ongoing monthly royalty. And the rest his history etc.

[Fugazi]

It was a sports betting company which I can’t name. They took the mechanics of it and applied to other sports. So the royalties I get come from any sport they chose to apply it too. Obviously the inputs were made dynamic per sport but the principles remained. This allowed them to scale up on other sports without spooking the individual market, which you would on dogs at some point.

They have deep pockets and were able to further enhance the infrastructure side of placing the actual trades.

I probably could have done the entire thing myself but it would have taken allot of up front investment and in the end I couldn’t be bothered.

To use the old saying, somebody else takes all the risk and costs, I just get a monthly payment which is more than enough for my needs…

Sounds like a dream then as the royalties will be honoured. Did they find you or you find them? I imagine they get thousands contacting them with a "system"

Cool stuff though!

A few years back I applied for a job at the firm. Didn’t get it but remained friends with the senior technical manager. After Covid we met up for lunch in London, he asked what I was upto, gave him the general process, then met up with his boss and things moved rapidly from there. They then asked me to join their setup but I refused for various reasons. But obviously, sold them the idea, process and finer details. Gave me a lump sum plus ongoing monthly royalty. And the rest his history etc.

Surprised in some ways they can't just reverse engineer what their biggest winners with a high number of transactions are doing.

That said, haven't quite reverse engineered what you do currently do on the greyhounds early doors (if you're the bot I suspect that is, can't seem to profit doing the same). Got it working on another market though!

[Archery1969]

Sounds like a dream then as the royalties will be honoured. Did they find you or you find them? I imagine they get thousands contacting them with a "system"

Cool stuff though!

A few years back I applied for a job at the firm. Didn’t get it but remained friends with the senior technical manager. After Covid we met up for lunch in London, he asked what I was upto, gave him the general process, then met up with his boss and things moved rapidly from there. They then asked me to join their setup but I refused for various reasons. But obviously, sold them the idea, process and finer details. Gave me a lump sum plus ongoing monthly royalty. And the rest his history etc.

Surprised in some ways they can't just reverse engineer what their biggest winners with a high number of transactions are doing.

That said, haven't quite reverse engineered what you do currently do on the greyhounds early doors (if you're the bot I suspect that is, can't seem to profit doing the same). Got it working on another market though!

No longer my bot so to speak. But I suspect it’s the original process, meaning, you won’t be able to profit. It knows the value between the spread from over 12 hours out until the start. Also, there are probably hundreds now doing the same. The key is knowing when the value evaporates from x hours out until the seconds before the start. Also, I’m not sure BA would be fast enough. I moved the process from BA to python and I believe the company now owning moved to something else for millisecond speed improvements.

[Fugazi]

A few years back I applied for a job at the firm. Didn’t get it but remained friends with the senior technical manager. After Covid we met up for lunch in London, he asked what I was upto, gave him the general process, then met up with his boss and things moved rapidly from there. They then asked me to join their setup but I refused for various reasons. But obviously, sold them the idea, process and finer details. Gave me a lump sum plus ongoing monthly royalty. And the rest his history etc.

Surprised in some ways they can't just reverse engineer what their biggest winners with a high number of transactions are doing.

That said, haven't quite reverse engineered what you do currently do on the greyhounds early doors (if you're the bot I suspect that is, can't seem to profit doing the same). Got it working on another market though!

No longer my bot so to speak. But I suspect it’s the original process, meaning, you won’t be able to profit. It knows the value between the spread from over 12 hours out until the start. Also, there are probably hundreds now doing the same. The key is knowing when the value evaporates from x hours out until the seconds before the start. Also, I’m not sure BA would be fast enough. I moved the process from BA to python and I believe the company now owning moved to something else for millisecond speed improvements.

Yep, its exactly what I suspected all along. I assumed someone was using a far superior model to me to guess at value but thought I could brute force some early profit. Clearly has become super efficient.

Still, managed to trial and error a method elsewhere to work for me with some somewhat clever conditions to evade getting manipulated and added some random complexities that would create a stalemate at worse

[Archery1969]

Surprised in some ways they can't just reverse engineer what their biggest winners with a high number of transactions are doing.

That said, haven't quite reverse engineered what you do currently do on the greyhounds early doors (if you're the bot I suspect that is, can't seem to profit doing the same). Got it working on another market though!

No longer my bot so to speak. But I suspect it’s the original process, meaning, you won’t be able to profit. It knows the value between the spread from over 12 hours out until the start. Also, there are probably hundreds now doing the same. The key is knowing when the value evaporates from x hours out until the seconds before the start. Also, I’m not sure BA would be fast enough. I moved the process from BA to python and I believe the company now owning moved to something else for millisecond speed improvements.

Yep, its exactly what I suspected all along. I assumed someone was using a far superior model to me to guess at value but thought I could brute force some early profit. Clearly has become super efficient.

Still, managed to trial and error a method elsewhere to work for me with some somewhat clever conditions to evade getting manipulated and added some random complexities that would create a stalemate at worse

The key think with the dogs is that most of the value has gone before the real money arrives, hence scaling up is limited.

One thing i didn’t look into was leaving money at prices early on and see what money would get taken as prices rise and fall. I suspect some might be making allot doing that but you need a large bank with monies tied up for many hours.

But the main thing to note is, if you see a new price before you place yours then you’re already too late. The big boys and girls seem to have a mega speed edge. How, no idea but I do know the company who bought my system have a huge speed advantage. But that was something they weren’t prepared too divulge.

[Fugazi]

No longer my bot so to speak. But I suspect it’s the original process, meaning, you won’t be able to profit. It knows the value between the spread from over 12 hours out until the start. Also, there are probably hundreds now doing the same. The key is knowing when the value evaporates from x hours out until the seconds before the start. Also, I’m not sure BA would be fast enough. I moved the process from BA to python and I believe the company now owning moved to something else for millisecond speed improvements.

Yep, its exactly what I suspected all along. I assumed someone was using a far superior model to me to guess at value but thought I could brute force some early profit. Clearly has become super efficient.

Still, managed to trial and error a method elsewhere to work for me with some somewhat clever conditions to evade getting manipulated and added some random complexities that would create a stalemate at worse

The key think with the dogs is that most of the value has gone before the real money arrives, hence scaling up is limited.

One thing i didn’t look into was leaving money at prices early on and see what money would get taken as prices rise and fall. I suspect some might be making allot doing that but you need a large bank with monies tied up for many hours.

But the main thing to note is, if you see a new price before you place yours then you’re already too late. The big boys and girls seem to have a mega speed edge. How, no idea but I do know the company who bought my system have a huge speed advantage. But that was something they weren’t prepared too divulge.

I've actually found a bigger hurdle to scaling in other markets is being careful with transaction number - ive cracked entry / exit volumes but I leave a lot of profit on the table where I don't want to waste thousands of transactions to maybe get one random punter. Flip side as you said leave it too late and you get obliterated

[Dogfather]

Friday's results:
4 wins
1 loss

A win rate of 4 out of 5, or 80%, is what I aim for. At first glance, this might seem impossible, or you might think you need to bet on the weakest dogs. But I'm convinced that's not the case. In fact, I'll go further—on certain tracks and grades, betting on the favorite can yield around a 70% win rate without any analysis at all! Of course, I'm talking about lay betting here.

Using neural networks, I've discovered that with an 80% win rate and a 5% Betfair commission, you can still be profitable by betting up to odds of 4.8. However, this is a theoretical calculation; there's variance and other factors to consider, so for myself, I've decided that odds of 4 are the maximum. I recommend others to bet up to odds of 3.5, though this means you'll have to skip some races. The choice is yours.

Today's unsurpassed snails:

Kinsley
18:26 (R2) Grade: (A8) Distance: 462m Cloncunny Shell
19:49 (R7) Grade: (D4) Distance: 268m Footfield Sam
21:16 (R12) Grade: (A7) Distance: 462m Simpson Wardie

Harlow
12:46 (R9) Grade: (D4) Distance: 238m Shemozzle
13:37 (R12) Grade: (A6) Distance: 415m Brynoffa Jill

[Anbell]

Yep, its exactly what I suspected all along. I assumed someone was using a far superior model to me to guess at value but thought I could brute force some early profit. Clearly has become super efficient.

Still, managed to trial and error a method elsewhere to work for me with some somewhat clever conditions to evade getting manipulated and added some random complexities that would create a stalemate at worse

The key think with the dogs is that most of the value has gone before the real money arrives, hence scaling up is limited.

One thing i didn’t look into was leaving money at prices early on and see what money would get taken as prices rise and fall. I suspect some might be making allot doing that but you need a large bank with monies tied up for many hours.

But the main thing to note is, if you see a new price before you place yours then you’re already too late. The big boys and girls seem to have a mega speed edge. How, no idea but I do know the company who bought my system have a huge speed advantage. But that was something they weren’t prepared too divulge.

I've actually found a bigger hurdle to scaling in other markets is being careful with transaction number - ive cracked entry / exit volumes but I leave a lot of profit on the table where I don't want to waste thousands of transactions to maybe get one random punter. Flip side as you said leave it too late and you get obliterated

If you can find a human to talk to at BF you can probably negotiate away the transaction limits/taxes. AFAIK they dont like brute force wasted txs (like, eg, hitting TAKESP every refresh for hours if there arent any bets), but if you have a purpose they seem to be negotiable

[Dogfather]

Yesterday's results:

3 wins
2 losses

I couldn't find 5 bad favorites today, so only 4:

Oxford
10:48 (R2) Grade: (A2) Distance: 450m Drohobych Leader
11:38 (R5) Grade: (A2) Distance: 450m Rapido Desire

Monmore
17:56 (R12) Grade: (A4) Distance: 480m Droopys Babble

Swindon
21:28 (R11) Grade: (A3) Distance: 476m Flickering Syd

[Dogfather]

Yesterday's results:

3 wins
1 loss

For today's forecast, I decided to introduce a new factor - the analysis of comments on the previous 2 races. If it adds 1-2% win rate, it will suit me.

So, for today:

Monmore
11:01 (R1) Grade: (A7) Distance: 480m Winterfield Soot
11:52 (R4) Grade: (A4) Distance: 480m Britbull Bono

Harlow
11:04 (R3) Grade: (A6) Distance: 415m Brosna Nancy
11:54 (R6) Grade: (D4) Distance: 238m Gainstown Biggie

Newcastle
16:41 (R8) Grade: (A3) Distance: 480m Alnwick River

P.S.: Edited time of race Britbull Bono

[Euler]

It doesn't make sense that you are not specifying odds.