Snooker questions

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patchgarden23
Posts: 8
Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2021 1:27 pm

Hi all, new here so hi!

Got a question about snooker liquidity on the exchange, if this is the wrong place then apologies.

As someone who has not really been involved with gambling too much, I am not too knowledgeable on exchange practices and changes in recent years, i have however had a bit of success whenever the snooker comes to york on in play betting on the exchange.

As someone who is a snooker fan, in 2016-2019 i was making good money from situational betting, and also stuff as simple as backing the other player when the guy at the table missed, stuff you wouldn't actually believe you could get money matched on.

However i went a couple of time this year and found the following:
-liquidity is about a third of what it was in 2019 (i have screenshots from previous years at the end of the event which can verify this)
-much bigger gaps in back and lay values, especially in uncertain positions (always the case but I assume made bigger by the lack of liquidity meaning less closeness)
-someone/something else sniping faster than me and offering huge sums of money at clearly well defined points. I am willing to accept that maybe someone can be faster than me in most situations but a few times you are down the line of the shot etc and the shot isn't broadcastable in a way where you could tell and i am still getting beaten, which leads me to believe that someone somehow is beating the in play delay ever so slightly or something weird is happening. Do betfair now trade on their own snooker matches somehow?

I apologise for the rambling but i left feeling rather discombobulated at the whole experience, so really i just want to get a sense of
-a.why has the liquidity dropped so appreciably
-b.has something changed with the way snooker is traded that made it not possible or have people just gotten better
-c.how is someone/something so adept at sniping? Is there a way of getting a bet matched than clicking "bet now" on your phone etc.

Not going to be at the snooker again until the barbican next year so not bothered about pursuing it (it's draining to watch live!), but curious about the above.

Thanks.
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jamesedwards
Posts: 2234
Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm

patchgarden23 wrote:
Mon Dec 06, 2021 1:55 pm
Hi all, new here so hi!

Got a question about snooker liquidity on the exchange, if this is the wrong place then apologies.

As someone who has not really been involved with gambling too much, I am not too knowledgeable on exchange practices and changes in recent years, i have however had a bit of success whenever the snooker comes to york on in play betting on the exchange.

As someone who is a snooker fan, in 2016-2019 i was making good money from situational betting, and also stuff as simple as backing the other player when the guy at the table missed, stuff you wouldn't actually believe you could get money matched on.

However i went a couple of time this year and found the following:
-liquidity is about a third of what it was in 2019 (i have screenshots from previous years at the end of the event which can verify this)
-much bigger gaps in back and lay values, especially in uncertain positions (always the case but I assume made bigger by the lack of liquidity meaning less closeness)
-someone/something else sniping faster than me and offering huge sums of money at clearly well defined points. I am willing to accept that maybe someone can be faster than me in most situations but a few times you are down the line of the shot etc and the shot isn't broadcastable in a way where you could tell and i am still getting beaten, which leads me to believe that someone somehow is beating the in play delay ever so slightly or something weird is happening. Do betfair now trade on their own snooker matches somehow?

I apologise for the rambling but i left feeling rather discombobulated at the whole experience, so really i just want to get a sense of
-a.why has the liquidity dropped so appreciably
-b.has something changed with the way snooker is traded that made it not possible or have people just gotten better
-c.how is someone/something so adept at sniping? Is there a way of getting a bet matched than clicking "bet now" on your phone etc.

Not going to be at the snooker again until the barbican next year so not bothered about pursuing it (it's draining to watch live!), but curious about the above.

Thanks.
Liquidity seems to be dropping on everything over time. There is a thread with plenty of theories about why this may be.
viewtopic.php?f=7&t=24593&hilit=tennis

There has been recent discussion on another thread about how people have found a way of conspiring to get around the bet delay through a coding loophole. This works very well for golf and cricket and would work very well for snooker too.
viewtopic.php?f=15&t=24611&hilit=megarain
patchgarden23
Posts: 8
Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2021 1:27 pm

Interesting stuff, definitely something suspect happening in my opinion, as it's literally not possible to have beaten me in some trades in the normal way (fastest finger first) unless you were sat in the same place as me every time i was there, which find difficult to believe.
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

patchgarden23 wrote:
Wed Dec 08, 2021 12:13 pm
Interesting stuff, definitely something suspect happening in my opinion, as it's literally not possible to have beaten me in some trades in the normal way (fastest finger first) unless you were sat in the same place as me every time i was there, which find difficult to believe.
Just so I understand correctly; you're courtsiding at snooker events and somebody is still beating you to the punch?
patchgarden23
Posts: 8
Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2021 1:27 pm

Yes, I do it for a laugh a few times when the snooker is on in york, with great success in <=2019 and no success this year (for example, i was at the final afternoon session, and don't think i got a single bet matched despite it being a tweak fest in places, where as in 2019 i was at the final afternoon session and you probably got 20%-30% of misses/significant events matching)

so I'm being beaten to the punch yes, in a way which i don't think is possible unless you're beating the in play delay in some way shape or form.
-eg. i'm sat down the line of a shot in an virtually empty arena, the camera angle does not demonstrate if the ball is going in or not, hence i'm ahead of pictures and also at the event. Still don't get my bet matched first even though i bet immediately on seeing the white hit the red and red head towards the pocket.
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Kai
Posts: 6092
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

patchgarden23 wrote:
Wed Dec 08, 2021 2:36 pm
I'm being beaten to the punch yes, in a way which i don't think is possible unless you're beating the in play delay in some way shape or form.
I would keep an open mind, surely there are clever people out there that can employ all sorts of market tricks, some of which may make it appear like they have an unfair advantage etc. Can't really assume that people are only placing bets if they know the outcome.

It's a common complaint, seen high profile traders complain of similar things on social media, only for it to get debunked later.
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

patchgarden23 wrote:
Wed Dec 08, 2021 2:36 pm
Yes, I do it for a laugh a few times when the snooker is on in york, with great success in <=2019 and no success this year (for example, i was at the final afternoon session, and don't think i got a single bet matched despite it being a tweak fest in places, where as in 2019 i was at the final afternoon session and you probably got 20%-30% of misses/significant events matching)

so I'm being beaten to the punch yes, in a way which i don't think is possible unless you're beating the in play delay in some way shape or form.
-eg. i'm sat down the line of a shot in an virtually empty arena, the camera angle does not demonstrate if the ball is going in or not, hence i'm ahead of pictures and also at the event. Still don't get my bet matched first even though i bet immediately on seeing the white hit the red and red head towards the pocket.
Even if somebody could beat the IP delay it wouldn't be as advantageous as somebody sitting at the event. It might be just somebody who has a good understanding of the game playing the percentages. They might take a position in the expectancy of the ball being potted and then just dump it if its missed knowing over time they'd still be up.

I thought venues had really clamped down on courtsiding?
weemac
Posts: 1216
Joined: Mon Sep 16, 2013 8:16 pm

Maybe a courtsider could back the player on spec just before a difficult but important pot where odds would significantly shorten, and yet be first to react/lay if the pot misses?

Edit: Just saw Pat said the same thing.
patchgarden23
Posts: 8
Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2021 1:27 pm

All possible yeah, I guess I don't really know the mechanics of trading

A better example is:

back 5.3- 5.8 lay on the guy not at the table, guy at the table is mid break on easy shots (hence liquidity fairly tight as it tends to be in "safe" situations)

Guy at table unexpectedly misses. courtsider (me) immediately bets on guy not at table. What seems like within the time left on IP delay, the lay value on that player drops to 3.4 with a sizable (>£1000) amount left unmatched, hence someone has hoovered(or attempted to hoover up) all the back money for the player about to be at the table and now fav for the frame.

In this situation, I can't imagine anyone is putting that bet on pre the miss, as you'd have to be an idiot to back someone at 3.4 when their opponent is at the table in the balls. It's not like it's a black ball game and people are guessing and you can use your knowledge and skill to try and work out what the price should be.

Is there a trading strategy I'm not privy to where someone could theoretically be slightly ahead in some way shape or form? The money is sizable for the person that just missed so not possible for it to be someone watching at home. That or i'm just missing something.
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megarain
Posts: 2040
Joined: Thu May 16, 2013 1:26 pm
Contact:

I have never traded snooker live, but know there are teams of
mainly females who either trigger bets at the event or relay data.

Next time you go, try see if you can spot them.They won’t be
holding mobiles.

They also frequent the darts.

A lot of the snooker is available on pretty accessible Satelite
Feeds - or at least it was. The delay to live is v small.

Liquidity has to drop as fish are eaten / not replaced.

I am v bearish on the future profit viability of many non-mainstream sports.
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

patchgarden23 wrote:
Wed Dec 08, 2021 3:31 pm
All possible yeah, I guess I don't really know the mechanics of trading

A better example is:

back 5.3- 5.8 lay on the guy not at the table, guy at the table is mid break on easy shots (hence liquidity fairly tight as it tends to be in "safe" situations)

Guy at table unexpectedly misses. courtsider (me) immediately bets on guy not at table. What seems like within the time left on IP delay, the lay value on that player drops to 3.4 with a sizable (>£1000) amount left unmatched, hence someone has hoovered(or attempted to hoover up) all the back money for the player about to be at the table and now fav for the frame.
When money vanishes from the ladder its not always because its been taken. Positions get cancelled all the time in these situations so what looks like money being hoovered up can actually be people dumping their positions.
patchgarden23 wrote:
Wed Dec 08, 2021 3:31 pm
In this situation, I can't imagine anyone is putting that bet on pre the miss, as you'd have to be an idiot to back someone at 3.4 when their opponent is at the table in the balls.
That's exactly what the smart money does. In this situation there is no value (over time) in backing the guy at the table because the market has already factored in that he'll probably win the frame. By laying the same player its a fairly cheap bet because if he does go on to win the frame then his odds aren't going to get much shorter but by laying him you'll get a nice move in odds because the market didn't expect him to miss. The other problem with backing that player is you've locked yourself into a straight bet on him winning the frame but if you lay him you give yourself more possible situations to profit from if he misses.

Game it out on other sports. Liverpool are playing Man Utd, it's 0-0 and you've got no bets in the market. Liverpool go 1 up, by your logic you then back Liverpool. Makes more sense to lay them not back them. Now they could go on and win the game 2 or 3 nil but over time you'll make your profit by laying the in play market leader as it opens up more potential ways to profit.

Tennis would be more similiar to snooker from a trading perspective because there are only two possible outcomes so imagine watching a set of tennis and backing the player who gets the first break in serve, doesn't make much sense. That players odds will shorten and the market will consider them the winner of the set unless they're a big underdog. Makes more sense to lay them or back the other guy. If no further breaks happen then the amount you lose would be much less than the amount you could potentially profit by.

Ultimately the smart money takes a position for the minimal outlay on what may happen , not always on what's most likely to happen. If you can lay an outcome cheaply even though it's unlikely to happen, over time you'll find yourself up compared to the approach you're taking. You're reacting to what's going on in real time rather than playing the percentages and working out what's more potentially profitable in the long run.

All of the above is ifs, buts and maybes but the trick is to try and figure out what's profitable in the long term.
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