Greyhound Mystique

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Archery1969
Posts: 1082
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am

Hi,

Ever needed to know which Greyhound will shorten in price with 99% accuracy ?

Well, below is the method i use...

1. We are only interested in races graded A1 to A11. Today there are 93.
2. Head over to Sportling Life website, note down the best and last race times for each dog. Then take an average. See screenshot. What we are looking for his a difference between the 1st and 2nd dog average speed of 0.10 or higher. As you can see there is a significant difference between 1 and 5 of 0.19. So in this example dog 1 price will shorten.
3. Load up the race in BA. You will notice the back prices are very low and the lay prices are very high. See screenshot. This is because the market is not formed yet and money will start coming in from 3 minutes out.
4. What i do is from 30 minutes out start nipping in front of the lay price for, in this case, dog 1 with a back to lay trade. If someone nips in front of me then i cancel my order and nip back in front of them.

Any questions then let me know.

Have fun.
Last edited by Archery1969 on Mon Jan 13, 2020 12:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Archery1969
Posts: 1082
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am

And as you can see from the screenshot dog 1 did indeed shorten in price allot!!!

Have fun,
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Archery1969
Posts: 1082
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am

And so it continues....
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 1864
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

In my time with greyhounds;

As a general rule in determining short distances: 0.08 secs = 1 length, 0.04 secs = 1/2 length, 0.03 secs = a neck, 0.02 secs = head and 0.01 secs = short head. Although the actual time it takes a dog to run a length, may be fractionally quicker 0.0676 secs = 1 length.

What made you come up with 0.10?

(by the way....if it's not broke, don't fix it)
Archery1969
Posts: 1082
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am

wearthefoxhat wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:29 am
In my time with greyhounds;

As a general rule in determining short distances: 0.08 secs = 1 length, 0.04 secs = 1/2 length, 0.03 secs = a neck, 0.02 secs = head and 0.01 secs = short head. Although the actual time it takes a dog to run a length, may be fractionally quicker 0.0676 secs = 1 length.

What made you come up with 0.10?

(by the way....if it's not broke, don't fix it)
Hi,

Allot of data analysis gave me 0.09 but I rounded it up to 0.10. Not very scientific I know but it’s been working well for the last 3 months. On average around 60 races per day qualify. I start putting the runners in guardian from 7.00am to 10.30am and then let automation take over. Then have the rest of the day todo other things. :)

Thanks,
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Kai
Posts: 2341
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm
Location: Ivanka Trump

Well done for finding something that works well for you, but why post detailed instructions for it and allow others to profit off your hard work on a forum filled with greyhound botters? Too much competition for prices on thin markets can severely weaken your edge and possibly ruin it.
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jimibt
Posts: 2873
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:42 pm

Kai wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:55 am
Well done for finding something that works well for you, but why post detailed instructions for it and allow others to profit off your hard work on a forum filled with greyhound botters? Too much competition for prices on thin markets can severely weaken your edge and possibly ruin it.
i completely agree with Kai on this. You've provided far too much info. Your edge will dissapear very fast as there will be a few busy making bots to reflect this is due course.

A vague hint would be a far better policy, followed by some before and after screenshots to demonstrate. better still, be gready and don't even hint at anything sucessful on here, otherwise you'll also be deluged with PM's from far and wide!!

but anyway, nice approach
Archery1969
Posts: 1082
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am

Kai wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:55 am
Well done for finding something that works well for you, but why post detailed instructions for it and allow others to profit off your hard work on a forum filled with greyhound botters? Too much competition for prices on thin markets can severely weaken your edge and possibly ruin it.
Hi,

I dont think its a secret, many straight back bettors use a similiar method for picking winners.

Also, i havent provided details of the automation file i made as it has specific criteria around the book% and other things.

Just a shame i cant fully automate it. But 3.5 hours work per day is not too bad. Biggest problem is getting matched. £20 seems to be fine but £200 seems to spook the market somewhat. :lol:

Cheers,
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Naffman
Posts: 4714
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

Screenshotted ;)

No seriously I'd delete it - it's very generous but no point putting all that effort into something just for someone to come along and destroy your edge
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Kai
Posts: 2341
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm
Location: Ivanka Trump

I would strongly urge you to edit your opening post, it hasn't been long since you posted it. Protecting your edge in general is part of the discipline that every trader needs, it's tempting to talk in detail about how brilliant we can be at times but you simply must resist the temptation :)
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