Greyhound Mystique

Any markets not covered in the other boards
Post Reply
Archery1969
Posts: 3193
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am
Location: Newport

Hi,

Ever needed to know which Greyhound will shorten in price with 99% accuracy ?

Well, below is the method i use...

1. We are only interested in races graded A1 to A11. Today there are 93.
2. Head over to Sportling Life website, note down the best and last race times for each dog. Then take an average. See screenshot. What we are looking for his a difference between the 1st and 2nd dog average speed of 0.10 or higher. As you can see there is a significant difference between 1 and 5 of 0.19. So in this example dog 1 price will shorten.
3. Load up the race in BA. You will notice the back prices are very low and the lay prices are very high. See screenshot. This is because the market is not formed yet and money will start coming in from 3 minutes out.
4. What i do is from 30 minutes out start nipping in front of the lay price for, in this case, dog 1 with a back to lay trade. If someone nips in front of me then i cancel my order and nip back in front of them.

Any questions then let me know.

Have fun.
Last edited by Archery1969 on Mon Jan 13, 2020 12:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Archery1969
Posts: 3193
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am
Location: Newport

And as you can see from the screenshot dog 1 did indeed shorten in price allot!!!

Have fun,
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Archery1969
Posts: 3193
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am
Location: Newport

And so it continues....
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3205
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

In my time with greyhounds;

As a general rule in determining short distances: 0.08 secs = 1 length, 0.04 secs = 1/2 length, 0.03 secs = a neck, 0.02 secs = head and 0.01 secs = short head. Although the actual time it takes a dog to run a length, may be fractionally quicker 0.0676 secs = 1 length.

What made you come up with 0.10?

(by the way....if it's not broke, don't fix it)
Archery1969
Posts: 3193
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am
Location: Newport

wearthefoxhat wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:29 am
In my time with greyhounds;

As a general rule in determining short distances: 0.08 secs = 1 length, 0.04 secs = 1/2 length, 0.03 secs = a neck, 0.02 secs = head and 0.01 secs = short head. Although the actual time it takes a dog to run a length, may be fractionally quicker 0.0676 secs = 1 length.

What made you come up with 0.10?

(by the way....if it's not broke, don't fix it)
Hi,

Allot of data analysis gave me 0.09 but I rounded it up to 0.10. Not very scientific I know but it’s been working well for the last 3 months. On average around 60 races per day qualify. I start putting the runners in guardian from 7.00am to 10.30am and then let automation take over. Then have the rest of the day todo other things. :)

Thanks,
User avatar
Kai
Posts: 6092
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

Well done for finding something that works well for you, but why post detailed instructions for it and allow others to profit off your hard work on a forum filled with greyhound botters? Too much competition for prices on thin markets can severely weaken your edge and possibly ruin it.
User avatar
jimibt
Posts: 3641
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:42 pm
Location: Narnia

Kai wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:55 am
Well done for finding something that works well for you, but why post detailed instructions for it and allow others to profit off your hard work on a forum filled with greyhound botters? Too much competition for prices on thin markets can severely weaken your edge and possibly ruin it.
i completely agree with Kai on this. You've provided far too much info. Your edge will dissapear very fast as there will be a few busy making bots to reflect this is due course.

A vague hint would be a far better policy, followed by some before and after screenshots to demonstrate. better still, be gready and don't even hint at anything sucessful on here, otherwise you'll also be deluged with PM's from far and wide!!

but anyway, nice approach
Archery1969
Posts: 3193
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am
Location: Newport

Kai wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:55 am
Well done for finding something that works well for you, but why post detailed instructions for it and allow others to profit off your hard work on a forum filled with greyhound botters? Too much competition for prices on thin markets can severely weaken your edge and possibly ruin it.
Hi,

I dont think its a secret, many straight back bettors use a similiar method for picking winners.

Also, i havent provided details of the automation file i made as it has specific criteria around the book% and other things.

Just a shame i cant fully automate it. But 3.5 hours work per day is not too bad. Biggest problem is getting matched. £20 seems to be fine but £200 seems to spook the market somewhat. :lol:

Cheers,
User avatar
Naffman
Posts: 5626
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

Screenshotted ;)

No seriously I'd delete it - it's very generous but no point putting all that effort into something just for someone to come along and destroy your edge
User avatar
Kai
Posts: 6092
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

I would strongly urge you to edit your opening post, it hasn't been long since you posted it. Protecting your edge in general is part of the discipline that every trader needs, it's tempting to talk in detail about how brilliant we can be at times but you simply must resist the temptation :)
User avatar
wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3205
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

Kai wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:55 am
Well done for finding something that works well for you, but why post detailed instructions for it and allow others to profit off your hard work on a forum filled with greyhound botters? Too much competition for prices on thin markets can severely weaken your edge and possibly ruin it.
I've often found you get more feedback on a thread, or by PM, if you're willing to explore a method.

With greyhounds, it's more "scientific" and a lot more than just to do with times, but it's a large part of it.

One thing it has done for me is to "rediscover" some of the value in the greyhound market.
e.g. The Henlow 11.39 Qualifier T6; Silverview Sooty, won the race @ 9/4 (BSP 4.54) ;)
Archery1969
Posts: 3193
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am
Location: Newport

Hi,

I have removed the screenshots from my 1st post.

Sorry if i have upset anyone. Use to be a maths teacher and like helping people. Although i guess thats a bad thing on this forum for reasons you have all stated. I generally find it easy to come up with an edge just by watching different markets, biggest problem is getting matched at value prices etc.

I also find it very disheartening with all the threads with people who are struggling and might aswell go set alight to their money as they will probably never crack trading.

Got a few more edges but will respect the forum and keep to myself.

Cheers for the constrcutive words,

Thanks,
User avatar
wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3205
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

Archery1969 wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 12:01 pm

But 3.5 hours work per day is not too bad. Biggest problem is getting matched. £20 seems to be fine but £200 seems to spook the market somewhat. :lol:
If you're not already doing so, you could drip-feed the stakes into the market. That way it won't spook the market or other bots.

A quickfire 10x £5 bets, repeat and rinse...soon adds up. (as long as the trend is still favourable of course)
User avatar
jimibt
Posts: 3641
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:42 pm
Location: Narnia

Archery1969 wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 12:27 pm
Hi,

I have removed the screenshots from my 1st post.

Sorry if i have upset anyone. Use to be a maths teacher and like helping people. Although i guess thats a bad thing on this forum for reasons you have all stated. I generally find it easy to come up with an edge just by watching different markets, biggest problem is getting matched at value prices etc.

I also find it very disheartening with all the threads with people who are struggling and might aswell go set alight to their money as they will probably never crack trading.

Got a few more edges but will respect the forum and keep to myself.

Cheers for the constrcutive words,

Thanks,
I don't think you upset anyone and it is admirable that you posted so much detail. I think it's a pretty tough choice to make. As fox mentioned earlier, you can get some good feedback that helps you refine your approach by posting a lot of detail. However, on the flipside, by posting too much detail, you effectively degrade (in the future) the lifespan of your edge.

FWIW - i have no interest in the dogs tbh, BUT if i were starting out, I'd probably have tried very hard to emulate your approach, as would 100's of others. As a result of this, even just those potential bets entering the market (on the copy bots), could disrupt your approach. However, if one were to be obtuse, it WOULD be potentialy advantageous to detail an approach, knowing that it would be widely copied. You would then sit back and do the opposite -lol. That's how i'd do it anyway..

anyway, as mentioned earlier, it's nice to see alternative approaches to basically the same nut that needs to be cracked.
User avatar
Kai
Posts: 6092
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

Archery1969 wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 12:27 pm
Hi,

I have removed the screenshots from my 1st post.

Sorry if i have upset anyone. Use to be a maths teacher and like helping people. Although i guess thats a bad thing on this forum for reasons you have all stated. I generally find it easy to come up with an edge just by watching different markets, biggest problem is getting matched at value prices etc.

I also find it very disheartening with all the threads with people who are struggling and might aswell go set alight to their money as they will probably never crack trading.

Got a few more edges but will respect the forum and keep to myself.

Cheers for the constrcutive words,

Thanks,
Well that's quite an overreaction, not sure exactly how you found yourself genuinely offended :?

Why would anyone here be upset if someone was generous enough to share a part of their edge with others, there's nothing negative here, it's certainly not against the forum rules either. You can easily reply back that you don't mind sharing any of this and don't care too much about this information and keep discussing it etc, no need to edit your post if you don't want to.
Post Reply

Return to “Other Betfair Sports Trading markets”