Daily weather markets on Betfair

[Waterhouse]

Has anyone been successful betting on the daily Australian weather markets on Betfair?

This one for example: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/specia ... /29758441/

Could I not just look up the weather forecast for that particular day and gain an edge? Or am I missing something obvious here?

[sa7med]

market looks pretty thing, only 120 quid traded

[Kai]

Could I not just look up the weather forecast for that particular day and gain an edge? Or am I missing something obvious here?

Can't tell weather you're serious or trolling

[Derek27]

Has anyone been successful betting on the daily Australian weather markets on Betfair?

This one for example: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/specia ... /29758441/

Could I not just look up the weather forecast for that particular day and gain an edge? Or am I missing something obvious here?

You could, but so could everybody else, so it's not really an edge.

[Derek27]

Could I not just look up the weather forecast for that particular day and gain an edge? Or am I missing something obvious here?

Can't tell weather you're serious or trolling

Sounds like the first step in a long, long search for an edge.

[Kai]

Could I not just look up the weather forecast for that particular day and gain an edge? Or am I missing something obvious here?

Can't tell weather you're serious or trolling

Sounds like the first step in a long, long search for an edge.

Yikes, taking a meteorology course has to be the most scenic route a trader could ever take.

[ShaunWhite]

https://youtu.be/kZMUAd7OJc8

Screenshot_7.png

[wearthefoxhat]

There always a chance of 1.01 gub...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=82hBNQSfros

predict.jpg

[firlandsfarm]

Looks the same as over/under 2.5 goals!

[Waterhouse]

Looks the same as over/under 2.5 goals!

What do you mean? I didn't catch that.

[firlandsfarm]

Looks the same as over/under 2.5 goals!

What do you mean? I didn't catch that.

Hi Waterhouse, I'm just saying it's a two selection market … Over and Under and as the day approaches the definition time it's very similar to a match approaching 90 mins. … there is a degree of certainty but with a slight wind of doubt (pun intended ). I posted it a little lightheartedly in response to the teasing from others over the certainty of the market as they saw it. I'm guessing that the target temp. is set each day in line with the expected temp. to get as close a call as possible. I'm certainly not suggesting you trade it the same as an over/under 2.5 goals market!

[Waterhouse]

Looks the same as over/under 2.5 goals!

What do you mean? I didn't catch that.

Hi Waterhouse, I'm just saying it's a two selection market … Over and Under and as the day approaches the definition time it's very similar to a match approaching 90 mins. … there is a degree of certainty but with a slight wind of doubt (pun intended ). I posted it a little lightheartedly in response to the teasing from others over the certainty of the market as they saw it. I'm guessing that the target temp. is set each day in line with the expected temp. to get as close a call as possible. I'm certainly not suggesting you trade it the same as an over/under 2.5 goals market!

Ah, I see! Thanks for taking the time to explain.

This event is probably a lot easier to forecast than 2.5 goals markets since humans are pretty good at weather forecasting but surprises must still happen!

[firlandsfarm]

This event is probably a lot easier to forecast than 2.5 goals markets since humans are pretty good at weather forecasting but surprises must still happen!

Yes it may be easier to forecast if the temperature is way above or way below at say 12:30 or later but then the odds available would reflect that and I suspect the defined temperature is very carefully set to avoid that. The accuracy of forecasting is probably being used to set a target that will not be easy to predict. Today it's 19.1C at 13:00 for Brisbane … my phone is forecasting 19C at 13:00 but it only gives the forecast in whole numbers, no decimals, so I assume it's forecasting the temp. as being between 18.5C and 19.5C! So do you think it will be under or over 19.1C. When you look into it I think it's a very cleaver market and of course could be repeated all over the world. Maybe it could expand into rainfall and then be traded in conjunction with cricket, tennis and other weather related markets. I think this may be a case for 'watch this space'.

[Derek27]

This event is probably a lot easier to forecast than 2.5 goals markets since humans are pretty good at weather forecasting but surprises must still happen!

In order to make money betting it's useless forecasting what happens. You have to forecast what happens more accurately than the rest of the field. It's generally the more difficult markets to forecast that brings in skill, which in turn can give you an edge. I suspect somebody who works at the appropriate weather station or has accurate weather instruments in the area might make a bit of money.

[Kai]

This event is probably a lot easier to forecast than 2.5 goals markets since humans are pretty good at weather forecasting but surprises must still happen!

In order to make money betting it's useless forecasting what happens. You have to forecast what happens more accurately than the rest of the field. It's generally the more difficult markets to forecast that brings in skill, which in turn can give you an edge. I suspect somebody who works at the appropriate weather station or has accurate weather instruments in the area might make a bit of money.

In addition to what Derek said, in order to successfully trade weather patterns you also need good trading software (like Bet Angel) and bad joints (the older the better), because sticking your wet index finger in the air can only go so far in obtaining an advantage over other meteotraders.

I can post up some weather trading tips below.

https://www.sharecare.com/health/bone-j ... ct-weather

https://www.thoughtco.com/using-your-fi ... ne-3444499

For the more advanced tips like the link below you can always check out the weather trading subsection of the forum.

https://www.wikihow.com/Predict-the-Wea ... a-Forecast