Daily weather markets on Betfair

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firlandsfarm
Posts: 1334
Joined: Sat May 03, 2014 8:20 am

Waterhouse wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 9:04 pm
firlandsfarm wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 11:27 am
Looks the same as over/under 2.5 goals! :)
What do you mean? I didn't catch that. :)
Hi Waterhouse, I'm just saying it's a two selection market … Over and Under and as the day approaches the definition time it's very similar to a match approaching 90 mins. … there is a degree of certainty but with a slight wind of doubt (pun intended :lol: ). I posted it a little lightheartedly in response to the teasing from others over the certainty of the market as they saw it. I'm guessing that the target temp. is set each day in line with the expected temp. to get as close a call as possible. I'm certainly not suggesting you trade it the same as an over/under 2.5 goals market! :D
Waterhouse
Posts: 5
Joined: Tue May 19, 2020 6:07 pm

firlandsfarm wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 9:01 am
Waterhouse wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 9:04 pm
firlandsfarm wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 11:27 am
Looks the same as over/under 2.5 goals! :)
What do you mean? I didn't catch that. :)
Hi Waterhouse, I'm just saying it's a two selection market … Over and Under and as the day approaches the definition time it's very similar to a match approaching 90 mins. … there is a degree of certainty but with a slight wind of doubt (pun intended :lol: ). I posted it a little lightheartedly in response to the teasing from others over the certainty of the market as they saw it. I'm guessing that the target temp. is set each day in line with the expected temp. to get as close a call as possible. I'm certainly not suggesting you trade it the same as an over/under 2.5 goals market! :D
Ah, I see! Thanks for taking the time to explain.

This event is probably a lot easier to forecast than 2.5 goals markets since humans are pretty good at weather forecasting but surprises must still happen!
firlandsfarm
Posts: 1334
Joined: Sat May 03, 2014 8:20 am

Waterhouse wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 12:52 pm
This event is probably a lot easier to forecast than 2.5 goals markets since humans are pretty good at weather forecasting but surprises must still happen!
Yes it may be easier to forecast if the temperature is way above or way below at say 12:30 or later but then the odds available would reflect that and I suspect the defined temperature is very carefully set to avoid that. The accuracy of forecasting is probably being used to set a target that will not be easy to predict. Today it's 19.1C at 13:00 for Brisbane … my phone is forecasting 19C at 13:00 but it only gives the forecast in whole numbers, no decimals, so I assume it's forecasting the temp. as being between 18.5C and 19.5C! So do you think it will be under or over 19.1C. When you look into it I think it's a very cleaver market and of course could be repeated all over the world. Maybe it could expand into rainfall and then be traded in conjunction with cricket, tennis and other weather related markets. :D I think this may be a case for 'watch this space'.
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Derek27
Posts: 10004
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Waterhouse wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 12:52 pm
This event is probably a lot easier to forecast than 2.5 goals markets since humans are pretty good at weather forecasting but surprises must still happen!
In order to make money betting it's useless forecasting what happens. You have to forecast what happens more accurately than the rest of the field. It's generally the more difficult markets to forecast that brings in skill, which in turn can give you an edge. I suspect somebody who works at the appropriate weather station or has accurate weather instruments in the area might make a bit of money.
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Kai
Posts: 2241
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm
Location: Behind Ivanka Trump

Derek27 wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 4:24 pm
Waterhouse wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 12:52 pm
This event is probably a lot easier to forecast than 2.5 goals markets since humans are pretty good at weather forecasting but surprises must still happen!
In order to make money betting it's useless forecasting what happens. You have to forecast what happens more accurately than the rest of the field. It's generally the more difficult markets to forecast that brings in skill, which in turn can give you an edge. I suspect somebody who works at the appropriate weather station or has accurate weather instruments in the area might make a bit of money.
In addition to what Derek said, in order to successfully trade weather patterns you also need good trading software (like Bet Angel) and bad joints (the older the better), because sticking your wet index finger in the air can only go so far in obtaining an advantage over other meteotraders.

I can post up some weather trading tips below.

https://www.sharecare.com/health/bone-j ... ct-weather

https://www.thoughtco.com/using-your-fi ... ne-3444499

For the more advanced tips like the link below you can always check out the weather trading subsection of the forum.

https://www.wikihow.com/Predict-the-Wea ... a-Forecast
Waterhouse
Posts: 5
Joined: Tue May 19, 2020 6:07 pm

Kai wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 5:01 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 4:24 pm
Waterhouse wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 12:52 pm
This event is probably a lot easier to forecast than 2.5 goals markets since humans are pretty good at weather forecasting but surprises must still happen!
In order to make money betting it's useless forecasting what happens. You have to forecast what happens more accurately than the rest of the field. It's generally the more difficult markets to forecast that brings in skill, which in turn can give you an edge. I suspect somebody who works at the appropriate weather station or has accurate weather instruments in the area might make a bit of money.
In addition to what Derek said, in order to successfully trade weather patterns you also need good trading software (like Bet Angel) and bad joints (the older the better), because sticking your wet index finger in the air can only go so far in obtaining an advantage over other meteotraders.

I can post up some weather trading tips below.

https://www.sharecare.com/health/bone-j ... ct-weather

https://www.thoughtco.com/using-your-fi ... ne-3444499

For the more advanced tips like the link below you can always check out the weather trading subsection of the forum.

https://www.wikihow.com/Predict-the-Wea ... a-Forecast
Is there a weather section on this forum? I looked but couldn't find one.

Also, thanks for the links but I doubt you'd actually be able to predict the temperature using your fingers, joints and whatnot. If you think you can then I would happily take the other side of that bet. :roll:
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The Silk Run
Posts: 173
Joined: Mon May 14, 2018 12:53 am

Hi Hi Waterhouse

Forgive me if I have missed something but what's your target sport.

The reason I ask is I am aware Greyhound punters factor weather conditions into track bias, especially rain !!! It's an interesting theory.

Stay safe
Minnie LAI
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The Silk Run
Posts: 173
Joined: Mon May 14, 2018 12:53 am

Hi Hi Waterhouse

Just pulled this from archives if of interest to you source Betfair AUS

WEATHER
Weather does have an impact on greyhound racing but no way near as much as the gallops. Most of the theories are opinion based and no real evidence to prove it and would depend on who you talk to. The most common theories are:

If there has been heavy rain before or during the meeting the dogs drawn inside can be disadvantaged as the mud and water are more likely to gravitate to the sand on the rail hence the going will be heavier and a bias created to dogs from wide draws in the better going.
Dogs race better in the wet than bitches. Dogs are heavier and have better traction on a sloppy track.
Greyhounds can’t run fast times in the wet and needs to be accounted for in future form
Here is an attached video of the Group 1 2016 Top Gun at The Meadows in pouring rain.

Pantera Nera in Box 1 started favourite and seemed to be disadvantaged by the inside draw. The winner Dundee Osprey, a wide runner using plenty of the track.

Personally, I think Point 1 has merit but don’t subscribe to Points 2 and 3. My belief that a superstar dog will still run slick time even if in the wet. Punting is an opinion based game and your better to back yourself in on theories that work for you.

Here is an attached video of the Group 1 2016 Top Gun at The Meadows in pouring rain.
https://fasttrack.grv.org.au/RaceVideo/ ... /163331518

Pantera Nera in Box 1 started favourite and seemed to be disadvantaged by the inside draw. The winner Dundee Osprey, a wide runner using plenty of the track.

Stay safe
Minnie LAI
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Derek27
Posts: 10004
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Waterhouse wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 8:51 am
Is there a weather section on this forum? I looked but couldn't find one.

Also, thanks for the links but I doubt you'd actually be able to predict the temperature using your fingers, joints and whatnot. If you think you can then I would happily take the other side of that bet. :roll:
You can always start a new thread in the 'other sports' section.

You need to brush up on gambling. Being happy to take the other side of a bet regardless of what price is being asked for is futile and guaranteed to lose. By the way, Kai's post was tongue-in-cheek!
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Derek27
Posts: 10004
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

The Silk Run wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 11:26 am
Hi Hi Waterhouse

Forgive me if I have missed something but what's your target sport.

The reason I ask is I am aware Greyhound punters factor weather conditions into track bias, especially rain !!! It's an interesting theory.

Stay safe
Minnie LAI
If you want to make money on horses or greyhounds, weather/going, whilst crucial information for horse racing, it is a very small piece of a large jigsaw. He won't get very far using that as a starting point or taking tips from a weather forecaster!
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