Baseball

Any markets not covered in the other boards
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cloud88111
Posts: 36
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2011 8:56 am

Has anyone ever looked at trading Baseball? There's nothing like good liquidity there but the price movements are massive and predictable.

I Wondered if anyone took interest in any of the American sports? I saw an NFL post earlier but that's the one I'd stay away from as anything can happen in a second and teams change so much it's not worth keeping up with. Does anyone know if Basketball or NHL are worth a look?
Talkbet
Posts: 67
Joined: Tue Apr 26, 2011 6:35 am

Cassini over at http://dont-tell-anybody-i-ran-a-tipping-service.blogspot.com/ trades the US sports and makes very decent profits by all accounts. Obviously I have no idea of his strategies except that he seems to intimate that the markets overreact after touchdowns etc so he looks to get in at that point and then get out after the market has corrected itself.
He also looks for changes in the pattern of play when teams suddenly seem to up their game and the momentum changes.
Excellent blog and well worth reading.
cloud88111
Posts: 36
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2011 8:56 am

If anyone is interested in looking at Baseball as a trading option these are the types of movements you get and they are relatively predictable.
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cloud88111
Posts: 36
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2011 8:56 am

I'll throw this one in for good measure as well.
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aligammack
Posts: 104
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 2:49 pm

During the NBA playoffs I spent some time looking at the markets and I was pleasantly surprised.

Good liquidity and an interesting market with smooth price movements.

I believe that if it wasn't for the time difference basketball would be a more popular market because of the way it scores.

Ok for me as I'm over this side of the world.
SilentDave
Posts: 199
Joined: Wed Jan 20, 2010 11:30 am
Location: Bogota, Colombia

NBA is great for trading. Well worth a look.
Baseball there is just not enough liquidity to trade in-play imo but I do get involved pre-game.
convoysur-2
Posts: 1110
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:00 am

THis must be the best sport to trade,
CHECK IT
http://www.mindblowingvideos.com/this-s ... l-day.html
tc_uk
Posts: 21
Joined: Sat Apr 29, 2017 2:50 am

I've got a keen interest in Baseball and sometimes I purchase the MLB package in order to watch games through the season (just for my own enjoyment - not trading). With the new season starting yesterday I were all set for trading in play this season though (I did a little bit last season).

What I found were that there were the slight possibility to trade pre-start but the in-play were basically impossible. No money at all :-( Extremely disappointing I must admit as I have a couple of strategies I thought had a really good chance of success and I wanted to try.

Maybe it were the games I were looking at but in many games the back price simply didn't shift from 1.01 for both teams the entire time :-( I'll keep an eye on it from time to time as maybe it were because it were the start of the season and people hadn't realised it had started yet?

I for one would be jumping for joy if Betfair were ever allowed to operate in the US as clearly the liquidity for baseball would go through the roof and the in-play would then be possible. Shame it's never likely to happen though.
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LeTiss
Posts: 5386
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

I'll have another look, but Baseball liquidity seemed to dwindle when BF started banning certain locations

There's an interest there pre-match, but you can't trade in large numbers, as you'll end up with a huge liability through not getting matched, and IP trading being hopeless.
tc_uk
Posts: 21
Joined: Sat Apr 29, 2017 2:50 am

LeTiss wrote:
Fri Mar 30, 2018 11:14 am
There's an interest there pre-match, but you can't trade in large numbers, as you'll end up with a huge liability through not getting matched, and IP trading being hopeless.
Unfortunately, that does seem to be the current situation :(
It's a pity though as imo baseball could be a really good sport to trade given how the sport is played out.
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megarain
Posts: 2040
Joined: Thu May 16, 2013 1:26 pm
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If exchanges had any idea, they would give market maker rebates. simple.

But, we know they don’t give a stuff.

Mkts die, and sportsbook gets the mugs.

Which is probably what they want.

Never forget, things happen for a reason.
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Kafkaesque
Posts: 886
Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:20 am

I cannot for the life of me understand why BF would remove the 1.5 run handicaps and replace them with the option with a gazzillion handicaps, as they have for most sports. It seems there's been a decision in BF bunker to offer as many options with no understanding whatsoever of the sports or the liquidity for said sports. There's no need for anything other than the 1.5, as there'll - likely - never be liquidity to warrant it. At the very least they should have kept 1.5 seperat for simplicity and crossmatched to the gazzilion option-one.

On that note, I remember someone asking in a thread about this new handicap layout not working in Guardian, with the answer being that the software hasn't caught up yet. I cannot for life of me remember the thread, so I'll ask here, whether there's any update on that front?
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Dallas
Posts: 22672
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Location: Working From Home

Kafkaesque wrote:
Tue Apr 10, 2018 10:50 pm

On that note, I remember someone asking in a thread about this new handicap layout not working in Guardian, with the answer being that the software hasn't caught up yet. I cannot for life of me remember the thread, so I'll ask here, whether there's any update on that front?
viewtopic.php?f=20&t=15505

There has not been any new updates released since that thread but the dev team will know about it
Emmson
Posts: 3363
Joined: Mon Feb 29, 2016 6:47 pm

There is a massive baseball game occurring right now, World Series decider and the scarcity of volume is staggering, by comparison NBA on betfair is in reasonable shape. Anyway haven't got a clue what's going on but may try and extract something.

EDIT

How on earth could this ever be *America's sport* ? so boring, endless swinging and missing :)

EDIT 2

I just did witness a Pinch Hit Home Run mind you. ;)

EDIT 3

Was successful in extracting £3 despite having no idea what was going on and I doubt I'll be back. :D only 37K matched on whole game
MoRobo44
Posts: 6
Joined: Mon Jul 12, 2021 2:15 pm

Shohei Ohtani is +360 in Home Run Derby. Maybe never been a more nailed on winner!?
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