Is betfair dead?

News, chat and debate about the Betfair betting exchange.
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numberzero
Posts: 53
Joined: Sat Feb 04, 2023 9:53 am

Hi all
I am betfair trader for 10+ years.Probably didn't see the best times, but at the beginning it was good too.
I used 4 trading strategies. All of them are almost dead now
1)Markets with big spreads.By placing bets on these matches, I had big values. It was even possible not to trade, but simply only bet and have a profit at a distance.
It is unreal now because of a bot on 99% of markets.

2)Laying low prices.If anyone remembers, 10 and even more so 15 years ago, at the 90th minute, they already take the coefficient 1.01 lay(soccer). It seemed that added time for bettors did not exist, and this made it possible to earn.
Tennis was profitable using this strategy too. Now low prices are taken only by bots and when thay are not valuable in most situations.

3)Prematch trading in the markets of medium liquidity and low-liquidity.Is almost dead now .Prematch trading has now risk of losing especially on the old exchange. Now the amounts of odds in these markets before the start of the match are often 0. And even high liquidity matches are hard to trade because the odds dont move so much as earlier and even scapling is difficult.

4)Prematch and live trading exploiting market mismatches.For example ,different matrkets like correct score , time/match etc, combinations of them.
Betfair introduced automatically cross-market comparison and the strategy became unplayable too.

So i think. There is only one way left on the exchange now - scalping.But scalping is very hard and when the odds are tick to tick , there is a big risk that you miss the price and never take it after .Therefore, I think this strategy is dubious.All the more so, I think that now the markets are filled with the money of Bf and it is doubtful to beat their bot. If there is no exchange money on the market, the market is empty. I saw this in friendly matches where the bot was not launched and the bets were 1.09-1.1-.1.09. When the bot was launched, the odds stabilized at the bookmakers level.

Now, for example, even forks are difficult to use.The betting industry is dying and it is clear why the exchange is dying. You can find big forks between BF and asian bookies but now they have a right to void bets, when there are "ubnormal bets" .Even sbobet ,betibc etc start to do that. So, the strategy is hard to use too , profits may not cover losses on canceled bets.

In my experience, with a bank of 10,000, I could earn 5% per day 8-10 yeras ago .Now I can't guarantee even 0.5%.And this despite the fact that I have become more experienced.Someone will say that you can earn. But I think that the exchange has become simply inefficient, I see no reason to waste time on it. Efficiency has dropped significantly, just physics.What is the point of spending 10 days to earn the amount that you previously earned in 1 day?
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Derek27
Posts: 23478
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Those were the days. :)

I would say trading has become more competitive and we have to work harder to find new angels. I was gutted when the NSW giveaway was shut down due to the lowering of the turnover charge limit but it helps to have an interest in several sports or different markets. Rather like an electronics manufacturer, you don't specialize in tape decks and VCRs but keep up to date with new technologies.
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Kai
Posts: 6100
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

numberzero wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 10:36 am
So i think. There is only one way left on the exchange now - scalping.But scalping is very hard and when the odds are tick to tick , there is a big risk that you miss the price and never take it after .Therefore, I think this strategy is dubious.
Scalping nowadays

Image
numberzero
Posts: 53
Joined: Sat Feb 04, 2023 9:53 am

Derek27 wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 12:12 pm
Those were the days. :)

I would say trading has become more competitive and we have to work harder to find new angels. I was gutted when the NSW giveaway was shut down due to the lowering of the turnover charge limit but it helps to have an interest in several sports or different markets. Rather like an electronics manufacturer, you don't specialize in tape decks and VCRs but keep up to date with new technologies.

Yes you can keep up to date with new technologies but you will not earn now even half of what you could before. Simply because this money does not exist
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Kai
Posts: 6100
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

Nah don't think it's dead. Strategies run their course and need replacing eventually so that's normal.

Sure, easy pickings are gone for the most part but market always rewards trading ability, you say you want to trade without risk, but have to take risk and speculate and anticipate and find value or get fast pics etc.
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Derek27
Posts: 23478
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

numberzero wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 12:58 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 12:12 pm
Those were the days. :)

I would say trading has become more competitive and we have to work harder to find new angels. I was gutted when the NSW giveaway was shut down due to the lowering of the turnover charge limit but it helps to have an interest in several sports or different markets. Rather like an electronics manufacturer, you don't specialize in tape decks and VCRs but keep up to date with new technologies.

Yes you can keep up to date with new technologies but you will not earn now even half of what you could before. Simply because this money does not exist
Sony stopped manufacturing video recorders but they're still thriving. Just noticed I've got a Sony TV.
Cardano
Posts: 215
Joined: Mon Aug 21, 2017 12:02 pm

numberzero wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 12:58 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 12:12 pm
Those were the days. :)

I would say trading has become more competitive and we have to work harder to find new angels. I was gutted when the NSW giveaway was shut down due to the lowering of the turnover charge limit but it helps to have an interest in several sports or different markets. Rather like an electronics manufacturer, you don't specialize in tape decks and VCRs but keep up to date with new technologies.

Yes you can keep up to date with new technologies but you will not earn now even half of what you could before. Simply because this money does not exist
There's always In-Play :?:
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napshnap
Posts: 1189
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2017 6:21 am

Kai wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 12:27 pm
numberzero wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 10:36 am
So i think. There is only one way left on the exchange now - scalping.But scalping is very hard and when the odds are tick to tick , there is a big risk that you miss the price and never take it after .Therefore, I think this strategy is dubious.
Scalping nowadays

Image
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
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napshnap
Posts: 1189
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2017 6:21 am

numberzero wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 10:36 am
Hi all
...
But I think that the exchange has become simply inefficient <-- WRONG more efficient <-- CORRECT, I see no reason to waste time on it. (MY) Efficiency has dropped significantly, just physics.What is the point of spending 10 days to earn the amount that you previously earned in 1 day?
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napshnap
Posts: 1189
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2017 6:21 am

numberzero wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 12:58 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 12:12 pm
Those were the days. :)

I would say trading has become more competitive and we have to work harder to find new angels. I was gutted when the NSW giveaway was shut down due to the lowering of the turnover charge limit but it helps to have an interest in several sports or different markets. Rather like an electronics manufacturer, you don't specialize in tape decks and VCRs but keep up to date with new technologies.

Yes you can keep up to date with new technologies but you will not earn now even half of what you could before. Simply because this money does not exist
Didn't see the numbers, but yeah I believe now it's more about sharks eating each other.
Emmson
Posts: 3363
Joined: Mon Feb 29, 2016 6:47 pm

These questions/statements have been asked/made consistently since 2008 when I opened my account, not dead but in slow decline, apart from cricket and politics markets which are healthy.
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ANGELS15
Posts: 844
Joined: Wed Mar 22, 2017 9:57 am

Emmson wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 2:49 pm
These statements have been made consistently since 2008 when I opened my account, not dead but in slow decline, apart from cricket and politics markets which are healthy.
Absolutely.

Also in the past people would have migrated to the exchanges from betting backgrounds. Fewer young people millenials are taking up betting than in the past. There is a big cultural change going on these days and particularly in the current climate. Ask the average person in the street what a bookmaker is, chances are they will know. Try asking them what a betting exchange is.

The worst thing was exchanges being bought by bookmakers who've just sidelined them and done a piss poor job of promoting them.

In the old days the exchanges wouldn't close your account for being profitable. Now profitable accounts with high turnovers can trigger their affordability checks and get customer's accounts closed. This at last gives them the weapon to get rid of the shrewd customers and also will affect liquidity.
numberzero
Posts: 53
Joined: Sat Feb 04, 2023 9:53 am

napshnap wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 2:13 pm
numberzero wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 10:36 am
Hi all
...
But I think that the exchange has become simply inefficient <-- WRONG more efficient <-- CORRECT, I see no reason to waste time on it. (MY) Efficiency has dropped significantly, just physics.What is the point of spending 10 days to earn the amount that you previously earned in 1 day?
Inefficient for me but definitely more efficient as a bookmakers model. But what is the use of this for me or for you? Others benefit .
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Kai
Posts: 6100
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

We get where you're coming from but by now you should know what it takes to be profitable and how markets evolve.

Bottom line is, if you don't want to adapt to the new markets then Betfair might as well be technically dead in your case.
User avatar
goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

numberzero wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 10:36 am
Hi all
I am betfair trader for 10+ years.Probably didn't see the best times, but at the beginning it was good too.
I used 4 trading strategies. All of them are almost dead now
1)Markets with big spreads.By placing bets on these matches, I had big values. It was even possible not to trade, but simply only bet and have a profit at a distance.
It is unreal now because of a bot on 99% of markets.

2)Laying low prices.If anyone remembers, 10 and even more so 15 years ago, at the 90th minute, they already take the coefficient 1.01 lay(soccer). It seemed that added time for bettors did not exist, and this made it possible to earn.
Tennis was profitable using this strategy too. Now low prices are taken only by bots and when thay are not valuable in most situations.

3)Prematch trading in the markets of medium liquidity and low-liquidity.Is almost dead now .Prematch trading has now risk of losing especially on the old exchange. Now the amounts of odds in these markets before the start of the match are often 0. And even high liquidity matches are hard to trade because the odds dont move so much as earlier and even scapling is difficult.

4)Prematch and live trading exploiting market mismatches.For example ,different matrkets like correct score , time/match etc, combinations of them.
Betfair introduced automatically cross-market comparison and the strategy became unplayable too.

So i think. There is only one way left on the exchange now - scalping.But scalping is very hard and when the odds are tick to tick , there is a big risk that you miss the price and never take it after .Therefore, I think this strategy is dubious.All the more so, I think that now the markets are filled with the money of Bf and it is doubtful to beat their bot. If there is no exchange money on the market, the market is empty. I saw this in friendly matches where the bot was not launched and the bets were 1.09-1.1-.1.09. When the bot was launched, the odds stabilized at the bookmakers level.

Now, for example, even forks are difficult to use.The betting industry is dying and it is clear why the exchange is dying. You can find big forks between BF and asian bookies but now they have a right to void bets, when there are "ubnormal bets" .Even sbobet ,betibc etc start to do that. So, the strategy is hard to use too , profits may not cover losses on canceled bets.

In my experience, with a bank of 10,000, I could earn 5% per day 8-10 yeras ago .Now I can't guarantee even 0.5%.And this despite the fact that I have become more experienced.Someone will say that you can earn. But I think that the exchange has become simply inefficient, I see no reason to waste time on it. Efficiency has dropped significantly, just physics.What is the point of spending 10 days to earn the amount that you previously earned in 1 day?
I think you need to move on from 10yrs ago, work and think harder..
January was my best so far earned average £105 a day :-)
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