Is betfair dead?

News, chat and debate about the Betfair betting exchange.
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Trader724
Posts: 562
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:22 pm

Obviously any exchange depends on supply and demand and who the protagonists are shows its level of maturity. Any market goes through different stages throughout its life and bf exchange is quite saturated with people significantly reducing inefficiency and until they leave or are forced to leave (as premium charge did in the first stage) things will become increasingly unfavourable for all participants, including the organisers.
Unless things radically change in a smarter way I wouldn't be surprised to see bots banned in one way or another in addition to profitable accounts closed.
Cardano
Posts: 215
Joined: Mon Aug 21, 2017 12:02 pm

Trader724 wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 3:58 pm
Obviously any exchange depends on supply and demand and who the protagonists are shows its level of maturity. Any market goes through different stages throughout its life and bf exchange is quite saturated with people significantly reducing inefficiency and until they leave or are forced to leave (as premium charge did in the first stage) things will become increasingly unfavourable for all participants, including the organisers.
Unless things radically change in a smarter way I wouldn't be surprised to see bots banned in one way or another in addition to profitable accounts closed.
Trader724 wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 3:58 pm
Obviously any exchange depends on supply and demand and who the protagonists are shows its level of maturity. Any market goes through different stages throughout its life and bf exchange is quite saturated with people significantly reducing inefficiency and until they leave or are forced to leave (as premium charge did in the first stage) things will become increasingly unfavourable for all participants, including the organisers.
Unless things radically change in a smarter way I wouldn't be surprised to see bots banned in one way or another in addition to profitable accounts closed.
So how will BF determine a bet has been placed manually or by a bot :?:
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Cardano wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 4:22 pm
So how will BF determine a bet has been placed manually or by a bot :?:
Betting patterns. Speed, frequency 247 etc Or using api fields like CustomerRef to segregate strategies.

There's no way bots will be banned, in fact they're supporting their development. It's the automation community putting up the lions share of the money (aledgedly). Some of it is fairly useless admittedly but there's just as many bad bots as bad manual traders so it all helps. There's this odd idea that people automating are all good at this.
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Trader724
Posts: 562
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:22 pm

Cardano wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 4:22 pm
So how will BF determine a bet has been placed manually or by a bot :?:
By analysing the frequency of bets for example.
sniffer66
Posts: 1679
Joined: Thu May 02, 2019 8:37 am

Cardano wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 4:22 pm
Trader724 wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 3:58 pm
Obviously any exchange depends on supply and demand and who the protagonists are shows its level of maturity. Any market goes through different stages throughout its life and bf exchange is quite saturated with people significantly reducing inefficiency and until they leave or are forced to leave (as premium charge did in the first stage) things will become increasingly unfavourable for all participants, including the organisers.
Unless things radically change in a smarter way I wouldn't be surprised to see bots banned in one way or another in addition to profitable accounts closed.
Trader724 wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 3:58 pm
Obviously any exchange depends on supply and demand and who the protagonists are shows its level of maturity. Any market goes through different stages throughout its life and bf exchange is quite saturated with people significantly reducing inefficiency and until they leave or are forced to leave (as premium charge did in the first stage) things will become increasingly unfavourable for all participants, including the organisers.
Unless things radically change in a smarter way I wouldn't be surprised to see bots banned in one way or another in addition to profitable accounts closed.
So how will BF determine a bet has been placed manually or by a bot :?:
The poker sites have it down to a fine art. It's not difficult these days
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Trader724
Posts: 562
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:22 pm

Those who use automation substantially reduce inefficiencies compared to those who trade manually.
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Trader724
Posts: 562
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:22 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 4:56 pm


there's just as many bad bots as bad manual traders
There are obviously more good or bad bots than all manual traders, because what you can do with automation gives you a huge advantage over what you can do manually, both qualitatively and quantitatively.
Cardano
Posts: 215
Joined: Mon Aug 21, 2017 12:02 pm

Trader724 wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 4:59 pm
Cardano wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 4:22 pm
So how will BF determine a bet has been placed manually or by a bot :?:
By analysing the frequency of bets for example.
Rubbish :lol:
Cardano
Posts: 215
Joined: Mon Aug 21, 2017 12:02 pm

Trader724 wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 5:03 pm
Those who use automation substantially reduce inefficiencies compared to those who trade manually.
The 'inefficiencies' are created by 'manual' and 'automated' bets.
As long as you have 'manual' or 'automated' punters there will be inefficiencies
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Trader724
Posts: 562
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:22 pm

Cardano wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 5:30 pm
Trader724 wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 4:59 pm
Cardano wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 4:22 pm
So how will BF determine a bet has been placed manually or by a bot :?:
By analysing the frequency of bets for example.
Rubbish :lol:
If you placed 100 bets in a single second or place bets constantly 24/7 you obviously don't do it manually.
Cardano
Posts: 215
Joined: Mon Aug 21, 2017 12:02 pm

Trader724 wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 5:40 pm
Cardano wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 5:30 pm
Trader724 wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 4:59 pm

By analysing the frequency of bets for example.
Rubbish :lol:
If you placed 100 bets in a single second or place bets constantly 24/7 you obviously don't do it manually.
Of course - but who's placing 100 bets/sec or constantly 24/7 ( whatever that means ) on BF :?:
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Trader724
Posts: 562
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:22 pm

Cardano wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 5:48 pm
Trader724 wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 5:40 pm
Cardano wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 5:30 pm


Rubbish :lol:
If you placed 100 bets in a single second or place bets constantly 24/7 you obviously don't do it manually.
Of course - but who's placing 100 bets/sec or constantly 24/7 ( whatever that means ) on BF :?:
Me. And many many others.
Cardano
Posts: 215
Joined: Mon Aug 21, 2017 12:02 pm

Trader724 wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 5:50 pm
Cardano wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 5:48 pm
Trader724 wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 5:40 pm

If you placed 100 bets in a single second or place bets constantly 24/7 you obviously don't do it manually.
Of course - but who's placing 100 bets/sec or constantly 24/7 ( whatever that means ) on BF :?:
Me. And many many others.
Well in that case you are a marked man :!:
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Trader724
Posts: 562
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:22 pm

Cardano wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 5:34 pm
Trader724 wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 5:03 pm
Those who use automation substantially reduce inefficiencies compared to those who trade manually.
The 'inefficiencies' are created by 'manual' and 'automated' bets.
As long as you have 'manual' or 'automated' punters there will be inefficiencies
The efficiency of betting markets refers to their ability to reflect all available information in a betting odds. The more efficient a betting market is, the more accurately the odds reflect the real chances of an event.
If a market is extremely efficient, the odds can become so tight that there is no profit for bettors, as the winnings are compensated by losses. For example, if the odds for each option are exactly equal to the probability of this event, bettors will not have an advantage, as winnings and losses will balance each other out. In this case, the market is so efficient that there is no room for profit.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Cardano wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 5:52 pm
Trader724 wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 5:50 pm
Cardano wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 5:48 pm


Of course - but who's placing 100 bets/sec or constantly 24/7 ( whatever that means ) on BF :?:
Me. And many many others.
Well in that case you are a marked man :!:
Step back and think a minute or two... don't let your immediate bias come to a given conclusion.
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