Market manipulation on Betfair

News, chat and debate about the Betfair betting exchange.
RentonT
Posts: 201
Joined: Tue May 19, 2015 12:26 am

What markets are most people talking about here?

Personally I think pre-off racing markets can't be "controlled" by manipulation to be honest. I think we all see a bit of spoofing etc but surely that carries it's own risk. There is so much money flowing through the market to override manipulation. Surely there would be noticeable changes from historic volumes etc to support this theory that there's lots of manipulation.

Times when it's obvious a bot has pushed through your price holding you in a loss are at less fluid parts of markets or weak markets which is more than understandable so it should be obviously risky entering for a "trade" at these times.

A lot of people say it they can benefit from it and I agree but I think it's being painted out to be a lot bigger than it is. "Attempted manipulation" would be a better name.

Frankly it's a nice and more commonly used excuse now for when things don't go how people want it.
stueytrader
Posts: 863
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm

RentonT wrote:What markets are most people talking about here?

Personally I think pre-off racing markets can't be "controlled" by manipulation to be honest. I think we all see a bit of spoofing etc but surely that carries it's own risk. There is so much money flowing through the market to override manipulation. Surely there would be noticeable changes from historic volumes etc to support this theory that there's lots of manipulation.

A lot of people say it they can benefit from it and I agree but I think it's being painted out to be a lot bigger than it is. "Attempted manipulation" would be a better name.
This is an interesting point indeed - a manipulation bet (e.g. large blocking stake) can still be taken by an opposing big laying player. The only time this would be completely wrong (in all senses) would be similar to the financial market 'flasher' case, if there was the potential for a big bet to 'flash' but not be available to be matched. If that could ever happen on BF, then that would be a different level of problem I think, and potentially fraudulent.

But, if the manipulating bet can be matched, then I don't really see the problem as it is a fair asking price which can either be taken or refused.
kerberus
Posts: 366
Joined: Mon Aug 05, 2013 3:28 pm

Dear Stueytrader
Whaddya call this?
from the bomber thread.PNG
You've got it right about flash trading. These things are difficult to spot - and snip. Look above and below the 20k at 2.3 and the WOM and the total matched and the time.
I have no objection whatsoever about people throwing money into a market - I just want them to let me know when and where they are going to do it before you greedy sods get there first!!!!
Dallas can you PULLEASE send me a bot to spot this?
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jimibt
Posts: 3641
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:42 pm
Location: Narnia

kerberus wrote:Dear Stueytrader
Whaddya call this?
from the bomber thread.PNG
You've got it right about flash trading. These things are difficult to spot - and snip. Look above and below the 20k at 2.3 and the WOM and the total matched and the time.
I have no objection whatsoever about people throwing money into a market - I just want them to let me know when and where they are going to do it before you greedy sods get there first!!!!
Dallas can you PULLEASE send me a bot to spot this?
out of interest regards the 20k at 2.3. As and when that was removed, did the price drift out rapidly or were there further similar blocks placed to walk the price down further?? Really interested to know how to exploit this pattern also, from a data perspective.
kerberus
Posts: 366
Joined: Mon Aug 05, 2013 3:28 pm

I was working off a single screen/wifi at a library. I had 95p liability(practicing) .. ..
Saw the 20K and went for it - it is "flash trading" there is a "bomber" thread in the forum. Whomsoever is "flashing" "bombin2g" or is being a "loadaamoney" (do please forgive my miseplling)
who cares? I am perfectly willing to be a charitible receiver for any mug daft enough to flash the cash :mrgreen:
stueytrader
Posts: 863
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm

kerberus wrote:I was working off a single screen/wifi at a library. I had 95p liability(practicing) .. ..
Saw the 20K and went for it - it is "flash trading" there is a "bomber" thread in the forum. Whomsoever is "flashing" "bombin2g" or is being a "loadaamoney" (do please forgive my miseplling)
who cares? I am perfectly willing to be a charitible receiver for any mug daft enough to flash the cash :mrgreen:
May be getting crossed wires, but isn't a 'flash' bet one that can't be matched, or are you saying this 20k could not be matched?
kerberus
Posts: 366
Joined: Mon Aug 05, 2013 3:28 pm

In this instance you have 19229 at 2.3 and 1385 at 2.24. with 890 and 44 inbetween.
tight as a badgers bum (but the damn badgers got diarrhea).PNG
It's 13 minutes before the off - which way is it going to break?
It's the timing (BF delay, WiFi delay and (in my case sub £2 bet delay)).
The 19k and/or 1.3k can be removed in seconds/ a click - and look what will happen to the WOM (at the bottom) if you remove either. There are theories floating around (I am keeping my copy of the Metro (newspaper) which has front page stating "Britain looked set to remain a member...." Stick to sporting pundits, PW doesn't much like 'em but at least it's only a game! Mr Benn has already been sacked and Mr Cameron is trying to sack himself the media has already got them buried. I stick to horseracing because they use vets not media. Got broadband in on Thursday so hopefully life will be easier. Check the BF down thread - you'll see I've still got wrinkles, BA/BF seemed to be working but there was some sort of glitch on the BF site - I couldn't even give 'em money.
But at least it's not WWIII so why worry?
Good luck!
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tiha_patnja
Posts: 30
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2015 8:03 pm

(1) Do you think that market manipulation happens on the markets?

yes

(2) What form do you think manipulation takes? I.e. can you describe it?

think the traditional spoofing is the easiest to see. It can happen in inplay markets for example soccer, not only on pre race markets.

but every manipulation on the market is in its essence a spoofing manipulation because it forces a person to do something he or she didn't intend to do because the things aren't going the way this person has anticipated.

(3) How does it affect your trading?

I think that people don't need to think about manipulation when trading because it will only disturb them. Manipulation works only on people who dont know what they are doing because those people are the only ones that can get spoofed.

For example, it is easy to spoof a child with a ghost costume bit a grown up will laugh at you. Same goes for spoofing on the markets.

Calm mind and logic can protect you from any manipulation long term. And of course experience is the king. When you have all 3 then you are trained trader, logic without exp is good but not as good as with exp because exp is the icing on the cake that makes you 100% certain something will work

(4) Do you think Betfair care about manipulation, what do you think they do about it?

I dont know do they care but I do not think they should care


P.S. I didnt rate from 1-10 because I strongly believe in what I have said is true. Something like trading, If your not 100% sure then dont do it, wait and learn what happens until you are sure :)
steven1976
Posts: 1744
Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am

Why do horse racing markets attract so many matched bets across so many runners, compared to other sports within a small period of time?
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boardrep
Posts: 117
Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2015 4:52 pm

Now was that my connection or .....in the 18.20 at Stratford ...a perfect race to trade pre race and in play yet as soon as the favourite faltered so did Bet Angel and Betfair ......mmmm maybe thats the fish cooking in the kitchen ..I feel sorry for new users who maybe dont have contingency
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jimibt
Posts: 3641
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:42 pm
Location: Narnia

boardrep wrote:Now was that my connection or .....in the 18.20 at Stratford ...a perfect race to trade pre race and in play yet as soon as the favourite faltered so did Bet Angel and Betfair ......mmmm maybe thats the fish cooking in the kitchen ..I feel sorry for new users who maybe dont have contingency
i have had quite a few similar occurrences on my trades today. trades that should green out effortlessly on a given signal are not being honoured and then i'm obviously having to invoke my red out scenario. have pulled back a bit to examine this in more detail as this has derailed a seemingly neat rule that hits a known sweetspot with good results 80-90% of the time
steven1976
Posts: 1744
Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am

Any input yet Euler? You pointed me to the thread, so also hoping for your input.
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harsh
Posts: 131
Joined: Tue Jul 18, 2017 1:26 am

puzzling
dirkg
Posts: 2
Joined: Thu May 23, 2013 7:28 am

Interesting thread to read.
I wonder: is there regulation out there governing the market's integrity? I mean, stock markets are highly regulated and market manipulation is prohibited. I can't find anything on betting markets though. All thoughts appreciated!
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megarain
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Joined: Thu May 16, 2013 1:26 pm
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Some of the historical data is like a suspense novel.

There is a lot of stuff going on.
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