Higher rate Premium Charge hypothesis

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jamesedwards
Posts: 2234
Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm

I am a profitable full-time scalper with some in-play trading. Therefore I generate consistent profit but low commission so will fall foul of higher rate Premium Charge shortly.

I have been forecasting the impact and working out if I can leverage my commission rate payable to maximise net profit. With the below assumptions does my hypothesis sound correct?


Assumptions:
> Currently paying 2% commission and lower rate Premium Charge but fast approaching higher rate territory.
> Consistently profitable every week.
> Weekly [Commission generated / gross profit] = <2%
> Lifetime [Commission generated / gross profit] = 12% and falling fast.
> At 8% commission my weekly [commission generated / gross profits] ratio would increase to just above 5%.

Hypothesis:
I should continue to pay 2% commission until my lifetime [Commission generated / gross profit] approaches 5%. At this point I should move commission rate from 2% to 8% to maintain my lifetime [Commission generated / gross profit] ratio above 5% and therefore a PC rate of 50% rather than 60%.



Would appreciate any views or advice on the above.

Thanks
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3205
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

About the same for me too.

When I get there, I'll be treating it as a positive, as it's more like a badge of honour.

I won't be changing anything, currently 2% comms, unless Betfair themselves take it away and revert everyone back to 5% or higher. (I'll probably scale up if anything)
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

wearthefoxhat wrote:
Sun Nov 29, 2020 12:40 pm

When I get there, I'll be treating it as a positive, as it's more like a badge of honour.

I very much doubt you'll treat it as some honour when you hit it, especially as you'll most likely be on 60%+ with a 2% comm rate.
rik
Posts: 1583
Joined: Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:16 am
Location: London

jamesedwards wrote:
Sun Nov 29, 2020 5:15 am
I am a profitable full-time scalper with some in-play trading. Therefore I generate consistent profit but low commission so will fall foul of higher rate Premium Charge shortly.

I have been forecasting the impact and working out if I can leverage my commission rate payable to maximise net profit. With the below assumptions does my hypothesis sound correct?


Assumptions:
> Currently paying 2% commission and lower rate Premium Charge but fast approaching higher rate territory.
> Consistently profitable every week.
> Weekly [Commission generated / gross profit] = <2%
> Lifetime [Commission generated / gross profit] = 12% and falling fast.
> At 8% commission my weekly [commission generated / gross profits] ratio would increase to just above 5%.

Hypothesis:
I should continue to pay 2% commission until my lifetime [Commission generated / gross profit] approaches 5%. At this point I should move commission rate from 2% to 8% to maintain my lifetime [Commission generated / gross profit] ratio above 5% and therefore a PC rate of 50% rather than 60%.



Would appreciate any views or advice on the above.

Thanks
you must have been paying the 20% rate already for a while? are you close to 250k lifetime profit?
try to adjust your strategies or add strategies to generate more commission is better than choosing the 8% base rate imo
if your just generating 2% you definitely havent optimised your profits
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

jamesedwards wrote:
Sun Nov 29, 2020 5:15 am
I am a profitable full-time scalper with some in-play trading. Therefore I generate consistent profit but low commission so will fall foul of higher rate Premium Charge shortly.

I have been forecasting the impact and working out if I can leverage my commission rate payable to maximise net profit. With the below assumptions does my hypothesis sound correct?


Assumptions:
> Currently paying 2% commission and lower rate Premium Charge but fast approaching higher rate territory.
> Consistently profitable every week.
> Weekly [Commission generated / gross profit] = <2%
> Lifetime [Commission generated / gross profit] = 12% and falling fast.
> At 8% commission my weekly [commission generated / gross profits] ratio would increase to just above 5%.

Hypothesis:
I should continue to pay 2% commission until my lifetime [Commission generated / gross profit] approaches 5%. At this point I should move commission rate from 2% to 8% to maintain my lifetime [Commission generated / gross profit] ratio above 5% and therefore a PC rate of 50% rather than 60%.



Would appreciate any views or advice on the above.

Thanks
You'd be wise doing some "what if" type calculations as the last thing you want is to drop in the 60%+ rate but you don't want to pay unneccessary comms either if you don't need to. Remember implied comms is a killer if you win a lot more than you lose , that 8% could easily end up 4%.

It's hard for people to give hard advice as there's not much to go on, if you're on a lifetime 12% with 240K winnings it's a lot different than advising someone on 12% with 20K winnings. I think Derek has posted a PC calculation excel sheet before now so maybe use that to do a few what ifs and who knows the PC may have been rejigged by the time you get there :o
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

jamesedwards wrote:
Sun Nov 29, 2020 5:15 am
I am a profitable full-time scalper with some in-play trading. Therefore I generate consistent profit but low commission so will fall foul of higher rate Premium Charge shortly.

I have been forecasting the impact and working out if I can leverage my commission rate payable to maximise net profit. With the below assumptions does my hypothesis sound correct?


Assumptions:
> Currently paying 2% commission and lower rate Premium Charge but fast approaching higher rate territory.
> Consistently profitable every week.
> Weekly [Commission generated / gross profit] = <2%
> Lifetime [Commission generated / gross profit] = 12% and falling fast.
> At 8% commission my weekly [commission generated / gross profits] ratio would increase to just above 5%.

Hypothesis:
I should continue to pay 2% commission until my lifetime [Commission generated / gross profit] approaches 5%. At this point I should move commission rate from 2% to 8% to maintain my lifetime [Commission generated / gross profit] ratio above 5% and therefore a PC rate of 50% rather than 60%.



Would appreciate any views or advice on the above.

Thanks
Well done.
So scalping is not dead? Like some say with the increased volatility.....
User avatar
goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

The reason I ask is because I am absolutely useless at anticipating market direction...hence scalping maybe my thing...
User avatar
jamesedwards
Posts: 2234
Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm

rik wrote:
Sun Nov 29, 2020 1:03 pm

you must have been paying the 20% rate already for a while? are you close to 250k lifetime profit?
try to adjust your strategies or add strategies to generate more commission is better than choosing the 8% base rate imo
if your just generating 2% you definitely havent optimised your profits
I've spent hundreds of hours over the past year trying to find ways to churn more commission and increase my % without success. If you have any ideas feel free to PM me :D

spreadbetting wrote:
Sun Nov 29, 2020 1:07 pm

You'd be wise doing some "what if" type calculations as the last thing you want is to drop in the 60%+ rate but you don't want to pay unneccessary comms either if you don't need to. Remember implied comms is a killer if you win a lot more than you lose , that 8% could easily end up 4%.
Including the impact of implied comms calculation, switching to 8% commission would keep me permanently just above the 5% line that would trigger 60% PC. Increasing commission from 2% to 8% is highly undesirable, but for me the 6% of win markets is a smaller hit than a further 10% hit to weekly profit.

Just wanted to check I have the correct handle on how the higher rates are applied and if this conclusion sounds plausible to the PC experts out there.
rik
Posts: 1583
Joined: Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:16 am
Location: London

with your style its not possible to increase stakes or add markets where your edge is more marginal?
2% generated is a win rate of 3.5 to 1 which is too good there is no way thats optimising total profit
if you doubles your stakes would your win rate drop below 2 to 1?
User avatar
wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3205
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

goat68 wrote:
Sun Nov 29, 2020 1:45 pm
The reason I ask is because I am absolutely useless at anticipating market direction...hence scalping maybe my thing...
Worth watching this PW video a few times.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=os05kv4LncA
User avatar
goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

wearthefoxhat wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 8:52 am
goat68 wrote:
Sun Nov 29, 2020 1:45 pm
The reason I ask is because I am absolutely useless at anticipating market direction...hence scalping maybe my thing...
Worth watching this PW video a few times.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=os05kv4LncA
Thanks, yes that's a great video.
I must say though very few markets seem to be that stable nowadays, so it seems directional scalping seems to be more relevant on these markets.
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

jamesedwards wrote:
Sun Nov 29, 2020 8:15 pm
rik wrote:
Sun Nov 29, 2020 1:03 pm

you must have been paying the 20% rate already for a while? are you close to 250k lifetime profit?
try to adjust your strategies or add strategies to generate more commission is better than choosing the 8% base rate imo
if your just generating 2% you definitely havent optimised your profits
I've spent hundreds of hours over the past year trying to find ways to churn more commission and increase my % without success. If you have any ideas feel free to PM me :D

spreadbetting wrote:
Sun Nov 29, 2020 1:07 pm

You'd be wise doing some "what if" type calculations as the last thing you want is to drop in the 60%+ rate but you don't want to pay unneccessary comms either if you don't need to. Remember implied comms is a killer if you win a lot more than you lose , that 8% could easily end up 4%.
Including the impact of implied comms calculation, switching to 8% commission would keep me permanently just above the 5% line that would trigger 60% PC. Increasing commission from 2% to 8% is highly undesirable, but for me the 6% of win markets is a smaller hit than a further 10% hit to weekly profit.

Just wanted to check I have the correct handle on how the higher rates are applied and if this conclusion sounds plausible to the PC experts out there.


This was covered in another thread a while back and I think the general consensus was it was better to stay at 2%.

viewtopic.php?f=15&t=19507
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