Is betfair dead?

[ShaunWhite]

Well that looks like a NOT SURE answer from Derek

A question for you now, what odds would you put on it being Betfair?

Nobody will deny it's technically possible but it's so wreckless it's difficult to imagine. Like a faked moon landing, if it was true then the news would get out and 20% of everything would turn onto 100% of nothing.

Lots of people ask what you did so that's no problem. But it's exactly the same for everyone here and some people make money, some don't, so I don't think you can blame the pitch.

[goat68]

I think you need to move on from 10yrs ago, work and think harder..
January was my best so far earned average £105 a day

if it's not a secret, what is your trading amount ?

I think you trade big markets with a large amount, with a certain risk, but value at a distance. I'm right?
I think so Because another is not viable now .An exception is possible only if you use arbitrage using bookies but arbitrage has many risks. Or if you personally have a powerful api that buys everything "delicious" on the market.

If by trading amount you mean "stake size", it varies by strategy and price, typically between £10 to £50 bet liability

[Cardano]

Well that looks like a NOT SURE answer from Derek

A question for you now, what odds would you put on it being Betfair?

Nobody will deny it's technically possible but it's so wreckless it's difficult to imagine. Like a faked moon landing, if it was true then the news would get out and 20% of everything would turn onto 100% of nothing.

Lots of people ask what you did so that's no problem. But it's exactly the same for everyone here and some people make money, some don't, so I don't think you can blame the pitch.

I don't think it's wreck less.
Let me make an analogy. You ( BF ) are walking along and see £100 lying on the floor. Knowing that whoever the £100 belongs to is not coming back for it do you ( BF ) pick it up and pocket it (finders/keepers) or do you leave it for some other person ( bot ) to come along and pocket it

[jimibt]

Well that looks like a NOT SURE answer from Derek

A question for you now, what odds would you put on it being Betfair?

Nobody will deny it's technically possible but it's so wreckless it's difficult to imagine. Like a faked moon landing, if it was true then the news would get out and 20% of everything would turn onto 100% of nothing.

Lots of people ask what you did so that's no problem. But it's exactly the same for everyone here and some people make money, some don't, so I don't think you can blame the pitch.

I don't think it's wreck less.
Let me make an analogy. You ( BF ) are walking along and see £100 lying on the floor. Knowing that whoever the £100 belongs to is not coming back for it do you ( BF ) pick it up and pocket it (finders/keepers) or do you leave it for some other person ( bot ) to come along and pocket it

i think the only flaw here is of course that BF *MUST* be able to demonstrate impartiality and that the playing field is level. For sure with access via a co-located server, then of course they will pick this up if they have a few ms advantage. However, given that their (charging) model (afaik) is based on PC, then this would be easy to observe and even easier for the great unwashed to complain about and publish.

I may be well off here, but it's all sounding a bit consparitorial now and a tiny bit trollish!!

[Cardano]

A question for you now, what odds would you put on it being Betfair?

Nobody will deny it's technically possible but it's so wreckless it's difficult to imagine. Like a faked moon landing, if it was true then the news would get out and 20% of everything would turn onto 100% of nothing.

Lots of people ask what you did so that's no problem. But it's exactly the same for everyone here and some people make money, some don't, so I don't think you can blame the pitch.

I don't think it's wreck less.
Let me make an analogy. You ( BF ) are walking along and see £100 lying on the floor. Knowing that whoever the £100 belongs to is not coming back for it do you ( BF ) pick it up and pocket it (finders/keepers) or do you leave it for some other person ( bot ) to come along and pocket it

i think the only flaw here is of course that BF *MUST* be able to demonstrate impartiality and that the playing field is level. For sure with access via a co-located server, then of course they will pick this up if they have a few ms advantage. However, given that their (charging) model (afaik) is based on PC, then this would be easy to observe and even easier for the great unwashed to complain about and publish.

I may be well off here, but it's all sounding a bit consparitorial now and a tiny bit trollish!!

It's not a conspiracy. I'm not accusing BF of actively being participants in the market.
It's just certain events like horses falling/running out where some/all money falls into a Black Hole and BF say 'Thank you very much'

Oh by the way I don't think you can successfully have a 'Bot' that 'lays' a horse that has already lost or conversely 'back' a horse that has already won
However, if Dallas is reading this he might be able to come up with a solution

[goat68]

I think you need to move on from 10yrs ago, work and think harder..
January was my best so far earned average £105 a day

if it's not a secret, what is your trading amount ?

I think you trade big markets with a large amount, with a certain risk, but value at a distance. I'm right?
I think so Because another is not viable now .An exception is possible only if you use arbitrage using bookies but arbitrage has many risks. Or if you personally have a powerful api that buys everything "delicious" on the market.

Oh, and i'm just a Minnow !

[Derek27]

I don't think it's wreck less.
Let me make an analogy. You ( BF ) are walking along and see £100 lying on the floor. Knowing that whoever the £100 belongs to is not coming back for it do you ( BF ) pick it up and pocket it (finders/keepers) or do you leave it for some other person ( bot ) to come along and pocket it

i think the only flaw here is of course that BF *MUST* be able to demonstrate impartiality and that the playing field is level. For sure with access via a co-located server, then of course they will pick this up if they have a few ms advantage. However, given that their (charging) model (afaik) is based on PC, then this would be easy to observe and even easier for the great unwashed to complain about and publish.

I may be well off here, but it's all sounding a bit consparitorial now and a tiny bit trollish!!

It's not a conspiracy. I'm not accusing BF of actively being participants in the market.
It's just certain events like horses falling/running out where some/all money falls into a Black Hole and BF say 'Thank you very much'

It didn't fall into a black hole. It went into somebody's Betfair account. The question we're all asking is why do you think Betfair have won it?

Somebody on course or with fast pics might have seen the horse run out and placed a lay bet at 1.5 at the same time you placed your £100 back bet.

[Cardano]

i think the only flaw here is of course that BF *MUST* be able to demonstrate impartiality and that the playing field is level. For sure with access via a co-located server, then of course they will pick this up if they have a few ms advantage. However, given that their (charging) model (afaik) is based on PC, then this would be easy to observe and even easier for the great unwashed to complain about and publish.

I may be well off here, but it's all sounding a bit consparitorial now and a tiny bit trollish!!

It's not a conspiracy. I'm not accusing BF of actively being participants in the market.
It's just certain events like horses falling/running out where some/all money falls into a Black Hole and BF say 'Thank you very much'

It didn't fall into a black hole. It went into somebody's Betfair account. The question we're all asking is why do you think Betfair have won it?

Somebody on course or with fast pics might have seen the horse run out and placed a lay bet at 1.5 at the same time you placed your £100 back bet.

Derek you keep saying somebody - there isn't a somebody
Why would somebody in there right mind lay a horse that's coasting before it runs out what were they thinking - oh look it's coasting but it looks like it's going to run out - I think I'll 'lay' it in that case.
Derek, that's another thing - Horse Racing is obviously not your Forte
Please have a look at the replay and tell me whether you would have 'backed' it as it approached the second last hurdle or 'layed' it

[jimibt]

It's not a conspiracy. I'm not accusing BF of actively being participants in the market.
It's just certain events like horses falling/running out where some/all money falls into a Black Hole and BF say 'Thank you very much'

It didn't fall into a black hole. It went into somebody's Betfair account. The question we're all asking is why do you think Betfair have won it?

Somebody on course or with fast pics might have seen the horse run out and placed a lay bet at 1.5 at the same time you placed your £100 back bet.

Derek you keep saying somebody - there isn't a somebody
Why would somebody in there right mind lay a horse that's coasting before it runs out.
If they have 'layed' it it's for some other reason = it's coasting and looking like winning - have a look at the replay

i'll be honest here, when i was using betfair/BA in anger (i no longer focus on BF too much), I would look for *mechanical* deviations that were temporary and based on a number of factors. without access to pictures, i'd take advantage of these wild swings in relational price and take xx number of ticks out of the market, all within less than 1-2 seconds. these data points are only *visible* when using automation and therefore, what you might SEE on screen could have impacted across the board in many weird and wonderful ways. not sure if it's the same theses days, but if you graphed it, you'd see inversely symmetrical parabolas that bore little or no resemblance to the on-course activity (not that i ever monitored live pictures).

in short, there is a story being told way under the covers which is fairly obvious once you look at the inter-relationships and the opposing nature of competing runners.

[Derek27]

It's not a conspiracy. I'm not accusing BF of actively being participants in the market.
It's just certain events like horses falling/running out where some/all money falls into a Black Hole and BF say 'Thank you very much'

It didn't fall into a black hole. It went into somebody's Betfair account. The question we're all asking is why do you think Betfair have won it?

Somebody on course or with fast pics might have seen the horse run out and placed a lay bet at 1.5 at the same time you placed your £100 back bet.

Derek you keep saying somebody - there isn't a somebody
Why would somebody in there right mind lay a horse that's coasting before it runs out what were they thinking - oh look it's coasting but it looks like it's going to run out - I think I'll 'lay' it in that case.
Derek, that's another thing - Horse Racing is obviously not your Forte
Please have a look at the replay and tell me whether you would have 'backed' it as it approached the second last hurdle or 'layed' it

I've been betting on horse racing since the age of 8 and was profitable for the last 10 years before I switched to trading.

Obviously you don't bother reading the posts you reply to but the answer to your question is in the post you've quoted. I've underlined it for you.

As Shaun and Dallas have already explained to you, people have faster information than you. The pictures you're looking at are delayed by a few seconds. That horse may have ALREADY ran out when you placed your bet and the layer who took it may have known that it already ran out.

[Cardano]

It didn't fall into a black hole. It went into somebody's Betfair account. The question we're all asking is why do you think Betfair have won it?

Somebody on course or with fast pics might have seen the horse run out and placed a lay bet at 1.5 at the same time you placed your £100 back bet.

Derek you keep saying somebody - there isn't a somebody
Why would somebody in there right mind lay a horse that's coasting before it runs out what were they thinking - oh look it's coasting but it looks like it's going to run out - I think I'll 'lay' it in that case.
Derek, that's another thing - Horse Racing is obviously not your Forte
Please have a look at the replay and tell me whether you would have 'backed' it as it approached the second last hurdle or 'layed' it

I've been betting on horse racing since the age of 8 and was profitable for the last 10 years before I switched to trading.

Obviously you don't bother reading the posts you reply to but the answer to your question is in the post you've quoted. I've underlined it for you.

As Shaun and Dallas have already explained to you, people have faster information than you. The pictures you're looking at are delayed by a few seconds. That horse may have ALREADY ran out when you placed your bet and the layer who took it may have known that it already ran out.

I wasn't watching any pics, making use of TPD or flying any drones - I placed a few bets using automation when it was 'coasting' and looked the likely winner 5 secs before it 'ran out' I cant imagine anybody was looking to lay it at that point and up until it ran out which was obviously then too late to 'lay' as at that point it had lost. I dont think the jockey would even have time to get a bet on and he'd be the first one to know

[jimibt]

.. I dont think the jockey would even have time to get a bet on and he'd be the first one to know

playing devil's advocate here. in the above case, how then would BF have been able to get in on the action if the jockey was unaware (in your words) of the event.

I refer back to my post earlier where i discuss mechanical machinations on opposing prices - not always obvious unless you are actively aware of what to look for. none of these things truly spike out of no-where... there is always a trajectory!

i think tbh, you have just been truly unlucky (and haven't fully mastered automation in terms of feeling all the emerging edges in-play [not a criticism, just a well trodden path in my experience]) and the rational part of your brain is looking for an explanation. i know i certainly always used to dig deep when losses came *out of the blue*. delve into things like book % suddenly going > 120%/top 2 runners prices going awol etc, etc and i'm certain you'll find some interesting approaches on the topic in question.

[Cardano]

.. I dont think the jockey would even have time to get a bet on and he'd be the first one to know

playing devil's advocate here. in the above case, how then would BF have been able to get in on the action if the jockey was unaware (in your words) of the event.

I refer back to my post earlier where i discuss mechanical machinations on opposing prices - not always obvious unless you are actively aware of what to look for. none of these things truly spike out of no-where... there is always a trajectory!

Exactly - BF just hoovered-up by virtue of nobody else getting on because it was too late - it effectively fell into a black-hole. Who on earth would lay a horse that was coasing but ran- out just before it jumped the second last hurdle.
Have a look at the replay
Derek hasn't looked at the replay yet - he obviously doesn't read my replies

[jimibt]

.. I dont think the jockey would even have time to get a bet on and he'd be the first one to know

playing devil's advocate here. in the above case, how then would BF have been able to get in on the action if the jockey was unaware (in your words) of the event.

I refer back to my post earlier where i discuss mechanical machinations on opposing prices - not always obvious unless you are actively aware of what to look for. none of these things truly spike out of no-where... there is always a trajectory!

Exactly - BF just hoovered-up by virtue of nobody else getting on because it was too late - it effectively fell into a black-hole. Who on earth would lay a horse that was coasing but ran- out just before it jumped the second last hurdle.
Have a look at the replay
Derek hasn't he obviously doesn't read my replies

i'm not a betting man, but i'd say that a replay with the BA screen in focus also, would demonstrate my point perfectly.

[Derek27]

Derek you keep saying somebody - there isn't a somebody
Why would somebody in there right mind lay a horse that's coasting before it runs out what were they thinking - oh look it's coasting but it looks like it's going to run out - I think I'll 'lay' it in that case.
Derek, that's another thing - Horse Racing is obviously not your Forte
Please have a look at the replay and tell me whether you would have 'backed' it as it approached the second last hurdle or 'layed' it

I've been betting on horse racing since the age of 8 and was profitable for the last 10 years before I switched to trading.

Obviously you don't bother reading the posts you reply to but the answer to your question is in the post you've quoted. I've underlined it for you.

As Shaun and Dallas have already explained to you, people have faster information than you. The pictures you're looking at are delayed by a few seconds. That horse may have ALREADY ran out when you placed your bet and the layer who took it may have known that it already ran out.

I wasn't watching any pics, making use of TPD or flying any drones - I placed a few bets using automation when it was 'coasting' and looked the likely winner 5 secs before it 'ran out' I cant imagine anybody was looking to lay it at that point and up until it ran out which was obviously then too late to 'lay' as at that point it had lost. I dont think the jockey would even have time to get a bet on and he'd be the first one to know

How do you know it was coasting at the time you placed your bet if you weren't watching the pictures?