Is betfair dead?

News, chat and debate about the Betfair betting exchange.
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Derek27
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Cardano wrote:
Tue Feb 07, 2023 6:16 am
Derek27 wrote:
Tue Feb 07, 2023 3:36 am
Cardano wrote:
Mon Feb 06, 2023 9:04 pm

I don't think it's wreck less.
Let me make an analogy. You ( BF ) are walking along and see £100 lying on the floor. Knowing that whoever the £100 belongs to is not coming back for it do you ( BF ) pick it up and pocket it (finders/keepers) or do you leave it for some other person ( bot ) to come along and pocket it
That's not a valid analogy because you won't get your cut of the money if you leave it. Here's a better analogy: What would you rather do, rob £100K from a bank and risk going to prison or pick up the £20K that the robbers dropped, risk-free?

That's what Betfair do. Instead of robbing their customers and risking getting shut down or fined by the gambling commission, they let customers win fair and square and then (legally) rob their winning customers in the form of PC. The trader that pinched your £100 will have £20, or maybe £40 taken off them by Betfair. :)
Re your comments underlined below

"But if it looked a very likely winner it would have been a very short price and I would be much more likely to lay it. Never in a million years would I back a horse in-running at a short price. It's a big risk for little profit, as you found out."

I wouldn't dream of losing money the way you do either.
But you stick to what you do best and I'll stick to what I do best :)

"Have you compared the time the bet was logged with a clock on the video? If you can't reply to such a simple question I don't know why you bother asking for an explanation!"

Yes I've compared the times

"The trader that pinched your £100 "

And your analogy is not valid either. You can't prove there was a trader that pinched my £100 in your words. The trader would have had to ''lay' £100 after I 'backed' £100 and before it 'ran out'
The question is - was BF that trader.
Oh! I forgot you are NOT SURE :)
Don't mean to sound snooty but you lost £100, I didn't and wouldn't in those circumstances. The fact that you don't even say what price the bet was placed at demonstrates your lack of attention to detail. You don't even seem to think it was relevant. There are players on here that have in-running bots that specialize in backing horses at 3-figure prices or laying at <1.05. What you don't seem to understand is that by the time one's bet hits the market in the closing stages of the race, the odds you're betting at will not match the actual conditions. That's something all good in-play traders will be aware of, that's the decision you make when you place the bet, not when it hits the market.

What really staggers me is that you use automation yet you think you're the only one and everybody else is manually trading. There are some bots that simply think, "this horse has hit 1.03, conditions A, B, and C are satisfied so I'll lay it". It's not watching the flipping race and doesn't care if the horse is about to run out. The idea is you do it 100 times and just need a few to get beaten. My bots will sometimes lay a tennis player at around 1.05. His opponent could have a broken leg for all it knows. It doesn't matter. As long as the majority of trades close successfully I'll be up.

My analogy had nothing to do with a trader pinching your £100, you took that from another paragraph. And when I said trader I was referring to human or bots, a bot is trading so it's a trader. You're the one with a CT idea so it's up to you to prove it's Betfair taking your money.
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Derek27
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Tue Feb 07, 2023 12:38 pm
Cardano wrote:
Tue Feb 07, 2023 6:16 am
Yes I've compared the times
The only hard facts are that you were betting with delayed pictures
Apparently, he wasn't watching the race but just looked at the replay. I suspect it's confirmation bias, he's got a hunch that Betfair has nicked his £100, looking for evidence to support it and thus, decided at what point his bet was placed. :)
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Derek27
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This discussion really highlights the folly of backing at short prices. Layers don't care about losers and are happy when they get their winners. Backers are happy with their winners but all that happiness is wiped out with a single loser and feelings of disbelief and being cheated!
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Derek27
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See the thread below Cardano. It's from a professional gambler who made a living sniping "certainties" before they won, so he claimed at least. :)

viewtopic.php?f=17&t=17078
Cardano
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Tue Feb 07, 2023 12:38 pm
Cardano wrote:
Tue Feb 07, 2023 6:16 am
Yes I've compared the times
No you haven't. If you want to see the bet matching time to the millisecond you need to save the order book from the api.

The only hard facts are that you were betting with delayed pictures, and then a 1s delay on top of that. If you bet 3 or 4 seconds after the live action has happened then sometimes it will be a bad bet. That's all that's happened here.

You are 100% correct that Betfair could 'steal' your money, the only thing missing from your argument is any evidence they did, or that it couldn't be anyone else, or that anything unusual has happened.
Re your comments underlined below

No you haven't. If you want to see the bet matching time to the millisecond you need to save the order book from the api.


Please see attached file

The only hard facts are that you were betting with delayed pictures, and then a 1s delay on top of that. If you bet 3 or 4 seconds after the live action has happened then sometimes it will be a bad bet. That's all that's happened here.

Where did you get those facts from - I didn't say I watched live pics while betting

You are 100% correct that Betfair could 'steal' your money, the only thing missing from your argument is any evidence they did, or that it couldn't be anyone else, or that anything unusual has happened.

That's the question - does BF have a bot that hoovers-up when horses run-out - YES/NO/NOT SURE
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jimibt
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Cardano wrote:
Tue Feb 07, 2023 2:09 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Tue Feb 07, 2023 12:38 pm
Cardano wrote:
Tue Feb 07, 2023 6:16 am
Yes I've compared the times
No you haven't. If you want to see the bet matching time to the millisecond you need to save the order book from the api.

The only hard facts are that you were betting with delayed pictures, and then a 1s delay on top of that. If you bet 3 or 4 seconds after the live action has happened then sometimes it will be a bad bet. That's all that's happened here.

You are 100% correct that Betfair could 'steal' your money, the only thing missing from your argument is any evidence they did, or that it couldn't be anyone else, or that anything unusual has happened.
Re your comments underlined below

No you haven't. If you want to see the bet matching time to the millisecond you need to save the order book from the api.


Please see attached file

The only hard facts are that you were betting with delayed pictures, and then a 1s delay on top of that. If you bet 3 or 4 seconds after the live action has happened then sometimes it will be a bad bet. That's all that's happened here.

Where did you get those facts from - I didn't say I watched live pics while betting

You are 100% correct that Betfair could 'steal' your money, the only thing missing from your argument is any evidence they did, or that it couldn't be anyone else, or that anything unusual has happened.

That's the question - does BF have a bot that hoovers-up when horses run-out - YES/NO/NOT SURE
Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that image showing PRACTICE mode bets?? those are even harder to validate in-play against real activity for a huge variety of reasons.
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Last edited by jimibt on Tue Feb 07, 2023 2:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Kai
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I've probably lost track of the discussion but could have just been their exit bet or whatever, doesn't mean "they" were necessarily trying to go against popular opinion, even though you often should try and do exactly that.

But think about that concept for a moment, placing a few bets on a seemingly "sure thing" and then getting upset over the fact that there was some risk involved after all. Surely a flaw somewhere in that logic. Similar theme to OP expecting all the easy pickings to still be there after 20+ years and being overly upset over the fact that nowadays you have to learn how to trade and take risk.

This line of thinking in general is such a slippery slope, that the fault is not with you or your logic but always with the market itself. Not saying there's no potential shenanigans sometimes going on behind the scenes and I'm sure we've all come up with market conspiracy theories at one point or another, but can't let it drive you up the wall.
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Kai
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jimibt wrote:
Tue Feb 07, 2023 2:13 pm
Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that image showing PRACTICE mode bets?? those are even harder to validate in-play against real activity for a huge variety of reasons.
I really hope not Jim because getting overly upset over a few practice bets would surely be a first
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Derek27
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Location: UK

Cardano wrote:
Tue Feb 07, 2023 2:09 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Tue Feb 07, 2023 12:38 pm
Cardano wrote:
Tue Feb 07, 2023 6:16 am
Yes I've compared the times
No you haven't. If you want to see the bet matching time to the millisecond you need to save the order book from the api.

The only hard facts are that you were betting with delayed pictures, and then a 1s delay on top of that. If you bet 3 or 4 seconds after the live action has happened then sometimes it will be a bad bet. That's all that's happened here.

You are 100% correct that Betfair could 'steal' your money, the only thing missing from your argument is any evidence they did, or that it couldn't be anyone else, or that anything unusual has happened.
Re your comments underlined below

No you haven't. If you want to see the bet matching time to the millisecond you need to save the order book from the api.


Please see attached file

The only hard facts are that you were betting with delayed pictures, and then a 1s delay on top of that. If you bet 3 or 4 seconds after the live action has happened then sometimes it will be a bad bet. That's all that's happened here.

Where did you get those facts from - I didn't say I watched live pics while betting

You are 100% correct that Betfair could 'steal' your money, the only thing missing from your argument is any evidence they did, or that it couldn't be anyone else, or that anything unusual has happened.

That's the question - does BF have a bot that hoovers-up when horses run-out - YES/NO/NOT SURE
:lol: :lol: :lol: So you were in practice mode and claiming that Betfair is nicking your virtual money, that doesn't even exist! I think that's all the proof we need. :lol:

Have you ever placed real bets Carnano? If you had you would have realised Betfair bet numbers are about 10-12 digits. It's possible that somebody closed their position at a higher price, laid the horse for just £2, or even less. Practice mode will sometimes report £100 being taken when in real life only £2 was matched at a higher price.

But I agree with Kai. If you're going to get this upset losing in practice mode how are you going to cope with real trading?
Last edited by Derek27 on Tue Feb 07, 2023 5:50 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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jimibt
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Kai wrote:
Tue Feb 07, 2023 2:16 pm
jimibt wrote:
Tue Feb 07, 2023 2:13 pm
Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that image showing PRACTICE mode bets?? those are even harder to validate in-play against real activity for a huge variety of reasons.
I really hope not Jim because getting overly upset over a few practice bets would surely be a first
let's wait and see ;)
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Kai
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Also, this obsession over where the money comes from etc that I often see pop up in threads, you can of course have a rough idea but I fail to see how that is relevant to your bottom line.

I think it's less important where the money is coming from and more important when is it coming and what it wants to do on a market.

Can't do much wrong if you follow the money a bit in general, if larger money can move prices then logically should be worth paying attention to larger amounts, they should be slightly better informed than the smaller amounts that come from market makers and such.
Last edited by Kai on Tue Feb 07, 2023 2:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Derek27
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Cardano wrote:
Tue Feb 07, 2023 6:16 am
But you stick to what you do best and I'll stick to what I do best :)
What exactly do you do best? Losing money on odds-on shots in practice mode? :lol: :lol:
Cardano
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Derek27 wrote:
Tue Feb 07, 2023 2:22 pm
Cardano wrote:
Tue Feb 07, 2023 2:09 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Tue Feb 07, 2023 12:38 pm

No you haven't. If you want to see the bet matching time to the millisecond you need to save the order book from the api.

The only hard facts are that you were betting with delayed pictures, and then a 1s delay on top of that. If you bet 3 or 4 seconds after the live action has happened then sometimes it will be a bad bet. That's all that's happened here.

You are 100% correct that Betfair could 'steal' your money, the only thing missing from your argument is any evidence they did, or that it couldn't be anyone else, or that anything unusual has happened.
Re your comments underlined below

No you haven't. If you want to see the bet matching time to the millisecond you need to save the order book from the api.


Please see attached file

The only hard facts are that you were betting with delayed pictures, and then a 1s delay on top of that. If you bet 3 or 4 seconds after the live action has happened then sometimes it will be a bad bet. That's all that's happened here.

Where did you get those facts from - I didn't say I watched live pics while betting

You are 100% correct that Betfair could 'steal' your money, the only thing missing from your argument is any evidence they did, or that it couldn't be anyone else, or that anything unusual has happened.

That's the question - does BF have a bot that hoovers-up when horses run-out - YES/NO/NOT SURE
:lol: :lol: :lol: So you were in practice mode can claiming that Betfair is nicking your virtual money, that doesn't even exist! I think that's all the proof we need. :lol:

Have you ever placed real bets Carnano? If you had you would have realised Betfair bet numbers are about 10-12 digits. It's possible that somebody closed their position at a higher price, laid the horse for just £2, or even less. Practice mode will sometimes report £100 being taken when in real life only £2 was matched at a higher price.

But I agree with Kai. If you're going to get this upset losing in practice mode how are you going to cope with real trading?
I'm not getting upset - if anything everybody else seems to be a getting upset.
It's got nothing to do with losses - you win some you lose some as long as you win more than you lose

I'm just wondering if Betfair hoovers up when a horse runs out - it's a simple question YES/NO/NOT SURE
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ShaunWhite
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Cardano wrote:
Tue Feb 07, 2023 2:09 pm
If you want to see the bet matching time to the millisecond you need to save the order book from the api.

Please see attached file
You've highlighted the bet reference not the time. The time is in whole seconds, And it shows bets over a 7 second time period?
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ShaunWhite
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Cardano wrote:
Tue Feb 07, 2023 2:33 pm
- it's a simple question YES/NO/NOT SURE
And it's a simple answer, NO.
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