Change in behaviour

[LeTiss]

I haven't noticed much change within the markets, but there again I don't dabble with Horse Racing when there's 30mins or less to go

However, I have an incredible story to tell! During the Olympics I sent customer support an email with an account issue. Shock Horror, somebody actually phoned me within 10mins to discuss my complaint. Even more incredible than that, they admitted their mistake and rectified the issue immediately

Not the change in behaviour that Peter was prompting, but nonetheless I was impressed

[mcfc1981]

did we not already cover all this a few weeks back in another thread????

[mcfc1981]

start of may was when i noticed the change which lasted about 3 week before the markets returned to the norm.
they then returned to as it is now around mid july(thou euler says 1st july) only returning to the norm the odd time.
it looks to me as 1 person/group are controlling the entire market.
who could it be???
maybe betfair but i still have my money on bomber.

[Euler]

did we not already cover all this a few weeks back in another thread????

I think it was racing this month. On seeing the thread I was undecided about whether a change had occured but since then we have done some research and can pin point the change. I raised this thread as I wanted to check my own sanity a bit.

[mcfc1981]

in the past we had phases of
1.flashing money
2.bombing
3.spikes
4.manipulation
5.huge lays
6.wall of money

i feel the same person is behind them all, rather then phases of each we now see a random mix on a daily basis with manipulation the current fav

[superfrank]

in the past we had phases of
1.flashing money
2.bombing
3.spikes
4.manipulation
5.huge lays
6.wall of money

i feel the same person is behind them all, rather then phases of each we now see a random mix on a daily basis with manipulation the current fav

that's just traders with deep pockets trying out new strategies. in the past we've had bouts of this stuff and then the market gets back to 'normal' (probably after said traders realise it doesn't pay in the longer term).

i think this is different and something closer to the exchange itself rather than rouge traders.

[mcfc1981]

if it was traders trying out new strategies why do these same strategies keep returning?

[superfrank]

if it was traders trying out new strategies why do these same strategies keep returning?

why would they not?
they may have been tweaked and returned for another try or others may have thought of the same thing and tried it.

[mcfc1981]

more then 1 bomber 1 flasher

[mcfc1981]

and now it begins 1st stop wall of money

[andyfuller]

Have to say I am with MCFC on his point, i feel the flasher and bomber are the same but I don't think we should take this thread down the line of discussing all of that.

I am intrigued to hear what Peter has noticed as of July 1st.....

[Euler]

I've had a curious afternoon today. Flying along till 4pm then it's like a switch was flicked and the market changed within a couple of races.

[Euler]

I am intrigued to hear what Peter has noticed as of July 1st.....

We have written an app to test the market in great depth. When we can see the results of that we will know. Till then it's just conjecture about what has changed.

At the moment it's curious that some stuff seems relatively unaffected, as are volumes; so that's confusing.

[PeterLe]

Anybody notice a change in behaviour on Betfair? By my estimate is that it started on the 1st July and has persisted since then.

Just interested if anybody else has noticed?

Hi
I can't be as specific as the 1st July, as the systems I'm using are still doing OK (ish), so we are obviously doing something different.
My main observations are that prior to and when XM was introduced, it was possible to offer money to the market (with the XM option in Betangel switched on OR Off) and bets were matched fairly frequently.
For the six months or so after XM was introduced, surprisingly it had a positive effect (we was all expecting it to be negative). Then slowly it reversed and has declined for the last 12 months.
If I had to summarise it, it would be "When 'offering' money to the market, the frequency at which your offer will be met, is significantly less that it was". A bit woolly I know, but I can think of how else to express it.
Either one entity is making bucketfuls of money or more likely betfair are intercepting those opportunities themselves.
In those six months post XM I made hay, but often wondered who it was I was taking that money from? Maybe Betfair recognised the opportunity and skimmed those bets themselves?
Anyone else notice anything similar in the 6 months post XM?
Regards
Peter

[mcfc1981]

16:10 newcastle
was when it changed for the day, wall of money was the 1st sign.