Hi All,
Does anyone else do this? I trade and build up a free bet rather than spread it across the race.
Or am I mad ?
Building up a free bet
I used to. In theory it shouldn't make any difference, your profit or loss should average out in the long term. Greening up will give you more consistent results whereas free bets can give you a few good days when they come in but a few empty days where you walk away with nothing after all your hard work, which I think is what put me off it in the end.
+1Derek27 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 17, 2021 9:02 pmI used to. In theory it shouldn't make any difference, your profit or loss should average out in the long term. Greening up will give you more consistent results whereas free bets can give you a few good days when they come in but a few empty days where you walk away with nothing after all your hard work, which I think is what put me off it in the end.
Much of this game is psychological. You don’t want to feel the market is against you, that feeds negative emotions which might make you produce a free red rather than a free green. Sod’s law says that free red will go on to win.
I never thought of free reds, I'd red-up but let free bets run. That's one of the things that got to me, when good trades went to waste in free bets but I still suffered losses in red books.gazuty wrote: ↑Thu Jun 17, 2021 10:38 pm+1Derek27 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 17, 2021 9:02 pmI used to. In theory it shouldn't make any difference, your profit or loss should average out in the long term. Greening up will give you more consistent results whereas free bets can give you a few good days when they come in but a few empty days where you walk away with nothing after all your hard work, which I think is what put me off it in the end.
Much of this game is psychological. You don’t want to feel the market is against you, that feeds negative emotions which might make you produce a free red rather than a free green. Sod’s law says that free red will go on to win.
- ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
The fact you've got a green position doesn't have much bearing on whether your hedging bet is value or not. But if you wanted to know then look back at the bsp on all the selections you've taken the free bet on and assumed you'd hedged at that price. Is your bottom line better or worse?
tbh I think it comes down to how many selections you're trading. If it's just a few day, say 20-30 then waiting for the sp odds to even out would be a pain given the small chance there's a small improvement.
C̶o̶m̶m̶i̶s̶s̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶m̶u̶c̶h̶ ̶m̶o̶r̶e̶ ̶e̶x̶p̶e̶n̶s̶i̶v̶e̶ ̶w̶i̶t̶h̶ ̶f̶r̶e̶e̶ ̶b̶e̶t̶s̶
(Edited)
Last edited by Anbell on Fri Jun 18, 2021 3:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
If you have 5 £10 free bets on horses at 5.0, green up for £2 each and win £10 or let them run, one of them will win you £10, so you pay the same commission.
- jamesedwards
- Posts: 2309
- Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm
Many benefits to greening up such as psychology/bank management etc. But worth considering that if you have a winning strategy then technically you are likely to on average be giving a little back every time you green up.
Generally less variance the better so unless you favor one outcome or cant get a good price to green up, should always be better to greenup/redup that way your profit/loss will be more accurate and not luck dependent. Commission makes no difference.
jamesedwards wrote: ↑Fri Jun 18, 2021 3:18 amaverage be giving a little back every time you green up.
Can offer a price as well to green up or wait for the right moment to take when there is for example only little left at top price and large stakes behind you
I suppose the Over/Under markets may be an exception. You don't need to be an expert to see the likelihood of goals and sometimes a juicy free bet on the O/U markets may be worth letting run.