How do you become a winning trader then

We were all new to Bet Angel once. Ask any question you like here and fellow forum members promise not to laugh. Betfair trading made simple.
Post Reply
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 22711
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

Indeed
User avatar
Crumpets
Posts: 24
Joined: Fri Nov 05, 2021 4:38 pm

I've always wondered how important it is to enter trades when the 'big money' is arriving.
I accept that the big traders need that liquidity to manoeuvre in and out of markets, but have always wondered if there is more to it?

I've found that races are a lot easier to read when they heat up, but often this means only entering when there are about 2/3 mins left. And this means entering close to the mad final 2 minute moves! (Not much time to work!)

Am I right in suggesting there is no real advantage to trading before the 'real money' comes in? 🤔 Even with tiny stakes..?
Trader Pat
Posts: 4061
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Crumpets wrote:
Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:38 pm
Am I right in suggesting there is no real advantage to trading before the 'real money' comes in? 🤔 Even with tiny stakes..?
The 'real money' usually arrives when the previous race ends so it depends on what kind of run in you have. The markets today with 10 minutes between races means you have about a 7-8 minute window to trade (providing they go off on time). Personally I usually close any positions I have open before the 2 minute surge but usually get involved again after it settles down a bit.

You can still trade before the previous race has finished (thats where some of the best moves come from) but you just have to be aware of when that money is going to arrive.
User avatar
Crumpets
Posts: 24
Joined: Fri Nov 05, 2021 4:38 pm

Thanks for the reply, Pat. I have found more opportunities before the final 5 mins... but often feel the lack of volume (padding) can be deterring. Especially when a bad position can take minutes to reveal itself, unlike in highly liquid moments.

I think the problem for new traders, such as myself, is that we don't know if some of our theories and understandings of the markets are way off the mark, or have legs.
In essence, we are not looking for the correct answer/systems/secret sauce etc.

In fact, it would just be nice to know if we were getting closer, or whether we were due a slap around the head.
The title of that forum: Trading in the Dark is apt
User avatar
alexmr2
Posts: 708
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:32 am

Trader Pat wrote:
Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:54 pm
Personally I usually close any positions I have open before the 2 minute surge but usually get involved again after it settles down a bit.
Is the 2 minute surge smart money or just someone like bookies hedging? I assumed it was -EV to oppose and trigger my mean reversion bot so switch it off before it happens.

You would think whoever is putting so much down knows what they are doing, but there are times when a better price becomes available later. If that was the case it should be +EV to take a better price than what the 2 mins lot got
Trader Pat
Posts: 4061
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

alexmr2 wrote:
Thu Jun 23, 2022 4:31 pm
Trader Pat wrote:
Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:54 pm
Personally I usually close any positions I have open before the 2 minute surge but usually get involved again after it settles down a bit.
Is the 2 minute surge smart money or just someone like bookies hedging? I assumed it was -EV to oppose and trigger my mean reversion bot so switch it off before it happens.

You would think whoever is putting so much down knows what they are doing, but there are times when a better price becomes available later. If that was the case it should be +EV to take a better price than what the 2 mins lot got
To me it looks like bots reacting to other bots setting off some kind of chain reaction. It seems to settle down after 10 seconds or so but it can set off monster moves and sometimes false moves where it will go in one direction for 5-6 ticks and then head in the opposite direction. Can really ruin your day if you get caught on the wrong side of it!
jamesg46
Posts: 3693
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

Meme it. It’s always better with a meme.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 22711
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

wearthefoxhat wrote:
Tue Jun 21, 2022 7:08 am
The secret sauce in my view is, human behaviour and how it creates/moves a market. What you then do with the data is the magic bullet.

As you say, there are a few members on the forum that seemed to have got the measure of this, although it's a moving feast as punters come and go. So it's important to review/test and in some cases tweak to keep the outcome/profit fairly consistent. This invariably requires a little extra know how and therein lies their edge.

There is still room for form, stats, ratings and opinion, as this can be more appealing to some, and it some cases very profitable.
The closest thing to a magic bullet is human nature.

I spent years doing quant based analysis of markets, before it dawned on me that what I'm trying to do is outthink the market. So I then spent a few years digesting everything I could on human behaviour and biases. Then I would lurk in areas of the market where this sort of error is most likely to occur.
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 22711
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Jun 22, 2022 12:12 pm
goat68 wrote:
Tue Jun 21, 2022 3:01 pm
also what PeterW recommends over and over again that being if you trade randomly you will end up breakeven or there abouts in the long run so all you need to do is shift the profitability a tiny bit and bingo...

It's not that straight forward though,
It's not straight forward because it conveniently disregards commission.
I've always said break-even less commission.

The only reason for saying that time and time again is because that is where I started. I figured that was all I needed to do and it worked.
elofan0
Posts: 254
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 4:44 pm

interesting video .. how to trade or not to trade

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-IYdIQqHnw
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 22711
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

I can't understand why that video is popular? YouTube is a strange place. Though it has been well presented.

Laying at 1.01 has been done do death, If you google it, you will see loads of stats on it, many on this forum: -

https://www.google.com/search?q=laying+ ... e&ie=UTF-8
User avatar
Crumpets
Posts: 24
Joined: Fri Nov 05, 2021 4:38 pm

There is a consensus amongst long-term profitable traders that you need to continue to adapt over time; to stay ahead of the competition.

Are these adaptions more specific to individual strategies/methods, and are therefore more of a danger to automation traders?
Or are these adaptions also required at a more fundamental level? I'd have thought mechanical edges come and go, but the overall skill of reading a market is something that changes only subtly over a period of years...thus maybe not requiring a conscious effort to tweak (providing you are consistently involved in the markets)

Yesterday, my two main methods were hopless; which is quite unusual for a Thursday. I looked at the odds balances and race types beforehand and rubbed my hands together....then proceeded to dedicate the rest of the day to experimentation/research, after my afternoon results were shocking 😳

Looking back over the videos, I realised the 'method' was far less important than the 'reading' on days such as yesterday...

Am I chatting b******s?
User avatar
wearthefoxhat
Posts: 2644
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

elofan0 wrote:
Fri Jun 24, 2022 11:14 am
interesting video .. how to trade or not to trade

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-IYdIQqHnw

Also, on some of his other videos he covers a lot of ground and presents the subject well.
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 15481
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Crumpets wrote:
Fri Jun 24, 2022 12:45 pm
I'd have thought mechanical edges come and go, but the overall skill of reading a market is something that changes only subtly over a period of years...
I'd go along with that. A precise strategy can die, it's your ability to modify it, observe and find new opportunities that keep you going.
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 22711
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

I've seen a lot so traders burst onto the scene, but lose their edge very quickly.

Trading and keeping an edge is a continuous process.
Post Reply

Return to “Bet Angel for newbies / Getting started”