Downward spiral advice

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Smokestak
Posts: 35
Joined: Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:18 am

I've been trying to get the hang of this trading since before lockdown. The only constant for me is losses. From 2019-2022 I've lost more than I've gained, seemingly by a ratio of 2:1. Out of 48 months I turned a profit in only 15. Max profit was 5 points. Losses went up to 25 points, losing on average 5-7 points a month.
I've tried everything, record keeping, low stakes, simple trades, bots, tips, punts, praying, shouting and enough advice to fill my ears with wax.
Started the new year with fresh impetus and started to make small progress only for it to go south in one day. BA froze and my position went against me within seconds, wiped out all my gains up to that point.
Consensus wise, should I just give up? I haven't really lost any huge money, I started with a £700 bank made from matched betting but that's gone now.
I've never put so much effort and time into something for such little return.
Any ideas that can turn it round? Because I've run out of them
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Derek27
Posts: 23476
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Smokestak wrote:
Mon Feb 13, 2023 9:34 pm
I've been trying to get the hang of this trading since before lockdown. The only constant for me is losses. From 2019-2022 I've lost more than I've gained, seemingly by a ratio of 2:1. Out of 48 months I turned a profit in only 15. Max profit was 5 points. Losses went up to 25 points, losing on average 5-7 points a month.
I've tried everything, record keeping, low stakes, simple trades, bots, tips, punts, praying, shouting and enough advice to fill my ears with wax.
Started the new year with fresh impetus and started to make small progress only for it to go south in one day. BA froze and my position went against me within seconds, wiped out all my gains up to that point.
Consensus wise, should I just give up? I haven't really lost any huge money, I started with a £700 bank made from matched betting but that's gone now.
I've never put so much effort and time into something for such little return.
Any ideas that can turn it round? Because I've run out of them
Sorry to hear you're not enjoying your trading. One thing missing from the list above is analysis. Have you analysed, not so much your results but individual trades? Do you have a clear plan or objective with each trade? Have you tried screen-recording and reviewing your trading, considering what would have worked?

I don't screen-record myself but I know a lot of people on here find it useful when analysing their trading.
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

What you've done is pretty normal, it sounds like you've had a bit of a go at just about everything and found out it's all equally difficult. There's no shortcut now apart from to choose one small part of any particular sport you fancy and get good at it. Maybe the last minute or price action around crossover prices or something equally well defined and managable. But I'd strongly suggest you don't try bots again at this stage, unless you've got a serious database and some reasonable analytical skill you'll get eaten alive just altering things on the fly. Manual trading is much easier unless you have something you know is good that you can try to implement.

When you've decided what you're going to do then just concentrate on losing less each month rather than making money. And lose the idea of 'points', because trading is much more fluid and liability rises and falls throughout a market, measure your perfomance as pl/turnover. Same with "tips" and "punts", that's not going to help much with price movement and should be left to the mug punters.
WisdomOfCrowds
Posts: 48
Joined: Tue Nov 09, 2021 2:55 pm

Smokestak wrote:
Mon Feb 13, 2023 9:34 pm

Started the new year with fresh impetus and started to make small progress only for it to go south in one day. BA froze and my position went against me within seconds, wiped out all my gains up to that point.

Consensus wise, should I just give up? I haven't really lost any huge money, I started with a £700 bank made from matched betting but that's gone now.
I've never put so much effort and time into something for such little return.
Any ideas that can turn it round? Because I've run out of them
I'm sorry things haven't gone well. It can be exasperating trying new things, looking for something that works and never finding it. I understand how you feel.

Regarding BA freezing and wiping out your gains, that's really bad luck. You need to ignore that in your profits assessment.

I suspect the difference between people who win in the long-term and those that lose is that the winners collect and analyse data - trying to understand what approaches work well and what works badly, adapting methods along the way.

There's no quick fix as it takes time to build up data. Without enough of it, we draw conclusions from meaningless samples as the data is identifying coincidences from the past that are not a useful guide as to what might happen in the future. Even data from 1,000 events is 'small' in the great scheme of things.

Unless you've got a liking for crunching numbers, this side of things can be boring but without doing it, I suspect most people's chances of winning will be much reduced.

Good luck for the future.
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Euler
Posts: 24701
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

It's not clear if you have a standard approach, but working with a base level strategy then refining it is the way most people get profitable and better over time. So focusing on one market and one strategy until you master it, will help you get to first base. You can then layer variations and improvements on top of that.

It's not clear from your original post if you are working in one market with one strategy or not?
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Smokestak
Posts: 35
Joined: Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:18 am

Thanks for all your advice.
In terms of analysis I've collected data on each trade religiously. On football and horses mainly, less said about tennis the better.
I understand the ebb & flow of football better than racing so that's where most of my trading is.
I record date, stake, winnings, %, % of overall bank and profir/loss. I record the teams/leagues/comp type. With horses it's distance/course and race type (usually sticking to hcaps over 10f) I log what strategy used and if it's a punt/trade/bot/test etc. My data shows me what techniques work/should work and I have specific entry points when conditions are met. If not I've learnt to sit on my hands and not trade.
I reckon my mindset is ok now. I don't get wound up by losses or excited by wins, just building that steely focus.
I could cope with my techniques showing variance, that is expected, but they all seem to start well then tail off into a sustained loss. So I tighten parameters and it repeats. I then have a look at them again, say a month later to see what could be changed.
Also it was BF that failed me, connection wise, not BA.

I guess I'll press on. Optimism will return and I'll return a consistent profit one day. I shall report it on here if I do, probably with photos of me doing a lap of honour.
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jamesedwards
Posts: 2234
Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm

Smokestak wrote:
Wed Feb 15, 2023 5:24 pm
I could cope with my techniques showing variance, that is expected, but they all seem to start well then tail off into a sustained loss. So I tighten parameters and it repeats. I then have a look at them
Does the tail-off correspond with increase in stake? It took me years to realise the impact that seemingly insignificant stake increases has on profitability.
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Smokestak wrote:
Wed Feb 15, 2023 5:24 pm
but they all seem to start well then tail off into a sustained loss. So I tighten parameters and it repeats. I then have a look at them
Sounds like you're backfitting. Ie looking at a previous anomoly and expecting it to continue rather than revert. I'd guess you're looking at your entire data history rather than splitting it into a research set and a test set to prove your theory in. The assumption is that the more data the better but without a control set you're always going to backfit and it's always going to fail when you implement it.
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Smokestak
Posts: 35
Joined: Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:18 am

jamesedwards wrote:
Wed Feb 15, 2023 8:47 pm
Smokestak wrote:
Wed Feb 15, 2023 5:24 pm
I could cope with my techniques showing variance, that is expected, but they all seem to start well then tail off into a sustained loss. So I tighten parameters and it repeats. I then have a look at them
Does the tail-off correspond with increase in stake? It took me years to realise the impact that seemingly insignificant stake increases has on profitability.
Every time
User avatar
Smokestak
Posts: 35
Joined: Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:18 am

ShaunWhite wrote:
Tue Feb 14, 2023 2:32 am
What you've done is pretty normal, it sounds like you've had a bit of a go at just about everything and found out it's all equally difficult. There's no shortcut now apart from to choose one small part of any particular sport you fancy and get good at it. Maybe the last minute or price action around crossover prices or something equally well defined and managable. But I'd strongly suggest you don't try bots again at this stage, unless you've got a serious database and some reasonable analytical skill you'll get eaten alive just altering things on the fly. Manual trading is much easier unless you have something you know is good that you can try to implement.

When you've decided what you're going to do then just concentrate on losing less each month rather than making money. And lose the idea of 'points', because trading is much more fluid and liability rises and falls throughout a market, measure your perfomance as pl/turnover. Same with "tips" and "punts", that's not going to help much with price movement and should be left to the mug punters.
As I've never really 'made' much money at it my main target is not losing money. This is where I started again, in January. I've had one profitable week (£16+ so I'm not a huge player here) and 8 loss weeks (ranging from £15-54). That is me trying to limit losses. As for ladder trading. I did better when I was guessing. As soon as I put advice into practice my strike rate plummeted.
I'm going to throw the kitchen sink (modest bank) at it then call it quits if nothing sticks.
deestar
Posts: 178
Joined: Thu Feb 20, 2020 6:17 pm

Get yer head around this and see if it helps.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3708927/

Some will disagree with this but the best piece of advice I can give (and it is why i have almost exclusively gone down a bot route) is prioritise consistency of action over analysis.

Set up a simple rule and do exactly the same thing, at exactly the same time, every single time, and see where it gets you. If it doesn't work, analyse, change, and go again with exactly the same thing at exactly the same time. Repeat, repeat, repeat.....Good luck.

You mention you made some money match betting, so following a set rule is clearly something you can do.
Gcampb
Posts: 1
Joined: Mon Mar 13, 2023 8:42 pm

It’s hard… but don’t give up.

I have spent the last year and an half learning. I’ve tried everything 😂

However, I want to share a positive story.

I’ve always been really careful with my bank, as it just doesn’t sit well throwing money into strategies that aren’t paying off. I was in the same spot as the OP and really not seeing any positive results month on month.

I would work on a strategy, play it out - see the bank increase and inevitably watch the strategy fall apart as I went into loosing streaks because my ‘edge’ wasn’t an edge!

Looking at my Betfair stats - I’ve traded over £13k in the last 6 months on a bankroll that was for most of the time under £500..

It’s only now, or recently, that I’ve started seeing the results I want and I chalk that down to being able to look at a market and instead of blindly following a strategy I try to react to what’s happening. Secondly and more importantly - I stopped taking risks.

All those hours spent trading are finally paying off and it feels like it’s finally come together.

Keep going - play it safe - keep learning 💪
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Dallas
Posts: 22674
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Location: Working From Home

Gcampb wrote:
Mon Mar 13, 2023 9:00 pm
It’s hard… but don’t give up.

I have spent the last year and an half learning. I’ve tried everything 😂

However, I want to share a positive story.

I’ve always been really careful with my bank, as it just doesn’t sit well throwing money into strategies that aren’t paying off. I was in the same spot as the OP and really not seeing any positive results month on month.

I would work on a strategy, play it out - see the bank increase and inevitably watch the strategy fall apart as I went into loosing streaks because my ‘edge’ wasn’t an edge!

Looking at my Betfair stats - I’ve traded over £13k in the last 6 months on a bankroll that was for most of the time under £500..

It’s only now, or recently, that I’ve started seeing the results I want and I chalk that down to being able to look at a market and instead of blindly following a strategy I try to react to what’s happening. Secondly and more importantly - I stopped taking risks.

All those hours spent trading are finally paying off and it feels like it’s finally come together.

Keep going - play it safe - keep learning 💪
Thanks for sharing that and I'm glad to hear your beginning to reap the rewards for all your hard work

Image
Thatguy
Posts: 1
Joined: Tue Mar 21, 2023 5:05 pm

Smokestak wrote:
Mon Feb 13, 2023 9:34 pm
I've been trying to get the hang of this trading since before lockdown. The only constant for me is losses. From 2019-2022 I've lost more than I've gained, seemingly by a ratio of 2:1. Out of 48 months I turned a profit in only 15. Max profit was 5 points. Losses went up to 25 points, losing on average 5-7 points a month.
I've tried everything, record keeping, low stakes, simple trades, bots, tips, punts, praying, shouting and enough advice to fill my ears with wax.
Started the new year with fresh impetus and started to make small progress only for it to go south in one day. BA froze and my position went against me within seconds, wiped out all my gains up to that point.
Consensus wise, should I just give up? I haven't really lost any huge money, I started with a £700 bank made from matched betting but that's gone now.
I've never put so much effort and time into something for such little return.
Any ideas that can turn it round? Because I've run out of them
I can relate to everything you have said, as I am in the same boat. Even Peter Webb (the gent that runs/owns/represents Bet Angel) admits he only gets 7 or 8 successful trades out of 10, and he 's the grand wizard. (So it's calculated gambling)

The way I see it, the only ones making money are the 1% financial geniuses. The other 99% like me are simply dreaming, but, it's a fun way to lose money. Better than the slot machines.

The only serious money I made was when I forgot to green up, and the second favorite I was trading on won. I made $360

I'm exploring dutching. At least you can win $5.00 per race, which 100x more than you do trading.

I'm about to pack it in, I'm giving it another 4 weeks.
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