50 A Day System

[spreadbetting]

Are you doing another year by any chance as you appear to have the data?

Here's your Handicap data from the Betfair data files, in CSV data but had to zip it because BA doesn't accept CSV for some reason.

Here was the query if there are any obvious errors as I'm a MYSQL novice

SELECT `MENU_HINT`,`EVENT_NAME`,`EVENT_DT`,min(`BSP`),`WIN_LOSE` FROM `new_table` WHERE `EVENT_NAME` not like "%Placed" and (`EVENT_NAME` like "%hcap%" OR `EVENT_NAME` like "%nursery%") group by `EVENT_ID`

new_table(1).zip

Edit , tweaked the file as I'd forgotten to include Nursery's

[ruthlessimon]

Interestingly it passed my reverse out of sample.. however, when we apply it to all courses it's unprofitable

Also commission seems to have a huge impact with these types of trades

0% -£3k
5% -£15k

[Atho55]

When I said are you going to do the earlier year I meant actually do it to show the Pivot Table and chart, not send the data for me to do another.

Anyway had a look, how do we find Rank 1 as that is part of the brief OR are the records you sent ALL the Rank1`s

If these are NOT the Rank 1`s how have you managed to do it Si

If they are the Rank 1`s, do the Pivot table and Chart as well Si

I believe I mentioned that commission was not considered

[spreadbetting]

I'd have no clue as how to do a pivot table

It's just a csv file of the lowest BSP runner's odds in every handicap since around 2008 from the betfair data files, contains MENU_HINT`,`EVENT_NAME`,`EVENT_DT`,min(`BSP`),`WIN_LOSE` which are respectively, the Race, the race details i.e. distance etc, the date/time , BSP (which was the lowest in that race) and a flag in the win_lose column that represents if that lowest priced runner won (1,2=dead heat) or lost (0)

[ShaunWhite]

This is based on Data starting on 1st Feb this year, any race with Hcap in the title, Rank 1 in order of BSP favouritism, £25 Lay bet AND only showing the Courses that have a +return assuming all bets placed @ BSP. Commission has NOT been factored in.

I know this isn't your battle to fight Athos55, I'm just quoting this as a good example of how misleading data can be.

These were the courses with a +ve return last month, how does that have any bearing on the courses with a +ve return next month? (rhetorical question)

Trends have a dangerous psychological effect on some people but my instinct is always to opposite them; if there's large scale efficiency then mean reversion should be respected.

Take the Ashes this year, the first post on the thread said ...

Australia haven’t won an away Ashes series since 2001 and start at Edgbaston where they haven’t won in any format since 2001 also, and only won 5 of their last 17 away tests. 8 of the 9 Ashes series have been won by the home side.

It's hard to see a series draw unless weather becomes a major factor.

.....I know absolutely nothing about cricket but my 1st instinct was to think "Well, England probably won't win then, those are streaks that can't go on much longer". And they didn't (I don't think). I'll happily oppose any noteworthy streak or trend, unless there's a compelling reason not to. The only reason I'd look for courses where the fav was value would be to oppose it.

[Atho55]

Shaun, the opening poster was looking for some information and I provided results from the small data set that gets updated daily. That`s it. It`s just a bit of data.

I`m sure he is able to make his own mind up how he uses it without everyone trying to rubbish it from the start. It might work, it might not. Who knows.

[ShaunWhite]

Shaun, the opening poster was looking for some information and I provided results from the small data set that gets updated daily. That`s it. It`s just a bit of data.

I`m sure he is able to make his own mind up how he uses it without everyone trying to rubbish it from the start. It might work, it might not. Who knows.

I know, I did say it wasn't your battle.

If honest opinions come across as trying 'rubbish it' then they can ignore them but the whole point of rigorous analysis is to eliminate the "It might work, it might not. Who knows" otherwise why do it? People have to go through 50 ideas to find 1 good one so the default should be to look for why things won't work rather than why they might. I'd be happy if anything I did was rubbished because failing fast and especially failing cheap is how you move forward.

[Atho55]

More out of curiosity than anything else, created a Pivot with the +£ courses and will note progress. Remarkably yesterday it did ok. Time will tell of course.

Gillette 0110.jpg

[Tonysilvestre99]

Hello everyone.

I'm new to this BOT thing.
From what I've been reading I think this strategy is good.
Can someone help me or tell me how to apply this strategy.
I'm been checking the forum shared files and has nothing on this strategy.

Thanks

[to75ne]

Hello everyone.

I'm new to this BOT thing.
From what I've been reading I think this strategy is good.
Can someone help me or tell me how to apply this strategy.
I'm been checking the forum shared files and has nothing on this strategy.

Thanks

its not, do yourself a favour and forget it.

[Atho55]

an interesting comment to75ne, are you able to support that with some factual evidence?

[to75ne]

just the mathematical certainty (well proven many times) that loss recovery systems fail.

[Derek27]

an interesting comment to75ne, are you able to support that with some factual evidence?

You cannot possibly win simply by increasing stakes in reaction to losses. Many loss recovery systems are disguised, involve moderately increasing stakes after a loser, limited maximum stake, etc, but it's all the same thing.

[Atho55]

Has anyone tried Level Stakes and use in Handicap Races only??

I have not got enough data yet but looking back over the last 3 months looks profitable

Using the staking plan advised is pure suicide! Page 7

I may be mistaken but assumed the person posing the question was referring to this part of the thread...

[GaryCook]

Has anyone tried Level Stakes and use in Handicap Races only??

I have not got enough data yet but looking back over the last 3 months looks profitable

Using the staking plan advised is pure suicide! Page 7

I may be mistaken but assumed the person posing the question was referring to this part of the thread...

What are Level Stakes? Just curious.

As for Martingale and other staking planes it's not hard to model what would happen based on a huge data set with random binary results. IE, win/lose (1 or 0).

Did that years ago. Turns out you may as well just place a random sequence of bets. The staking plan does nothing other than give one a false sense of security and that is worse than no staking plan at all. May as well stick your house on red or black in roulette. IE, Dont do it. The numbers, runners or games have no memory. What happened the event before has no bearing on the next result. Unless maybe its something like the 2nd leg of football competition. Which is usually factored to the prices on offer anyway as the market is quite efficient.

This game is all about seeking value whether its a macro or micro strategy. If each wager is negative value you are going to lose no matter what the staking plan is.

Trust me when you have hundreds or thousands on the roll of a dice you won't care that it lost 10 times before. Except in the sense you still have just as much chance of losing of course. If anything that's more reason not to stake again.

Plus, when you do manage to win a stake you then would have to factor in all the losses and take that out of any profit.

Why not just seek to be a trader who only places a trade when you have more chance of winning or losing in the first place. Quite a few people here manage it. Even if it did take a good while to learn. Well on the way myself.