50 A Day System

We were all new to Bet Angel once. Ask any question you like here and fellow forum members promise not to laugh. Betfair trading made simple.
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Atho55
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an interesting comment to75ne, are you able to support that with some factual evidence?
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to75ne
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just the mathematical certainty (well proven many times) that loss recovery systems fail.
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Derek27
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Atho55 wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 5:55 pm
an interesting comment to75ne, are you able to support that with some factual evidence?
You cannot possibly win simply by increasing stakes in reaction to losses. Many loss recovery systems are disguised, involve moderately increasing stakes after a loser, limited maximum stake, etc, but it's all the same thing.
Atho55
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Has anyone tried Level Stakes and use in Handicap Races only??

I have not got enough data yet but looking back over the last 3 months looks profitable

Using the staking plan advised is pure suicide! Page 7

I may be mistaken but assumed the person posing the question was referring to this part of the thread...
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GaryCook
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Atho55 wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 6:28 pm
Has anyone tried Level Stakes and use in Handicap Races only??

I have not got enough data yet but looking back over the last 3 months looks profitable

Using the staking plan advised is pure suicide! Page 7

I may be mistaken but assumed the person posing the question was referring to this part of the thread...
What are Level Stakes? Just curious.

As for Martingale and other staking planes it's not hard to model what would happen based on a huge data set with random binary results. IE, win/lose (1 or 0).

Did that years ago. Turns out you may as well just place a random sequence of bets. The staking plan does nothing other than give one a false sense of security and that is worse than no staking plan at all. May as well stick your house on red or black in roulette. IE, Dont do it. The numbers, runners or games have no memory. What happened the event before has no bearing on the next result. Unless maybe its something like the 2nd leg of football competition. Which is usually factored to the prices on offer anyway as the market is quite efficient.

This game is all about seeking value whether its a macro or micro strategy. If each wager is negative value you are going to lose no matter what the staking plan is.

Trust me when you have hundreds or thousands on the roll of a dice you won't care that it lost 10 times before. Except in the sense you still have just as much chance of losing of course. If anything that's more reason not to stake again.

Plus, when you do manage to win a stake you then would have to factor in all the losses and take that out of any profit.

Why not just seek to be a trader who only places a trade when you have more chance of winning or losing in the first place. Quite a few people here manage it. Even if it did take a good while to learn. Well on the way myself.
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Kai
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GaryCook wrote:
Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:08 pm
What are Level Stakes? Just curious.
Same exact stake size for every bet.
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Derek27
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Kai wrote:
Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:35 pm
GaryCook wrote:
Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:08 pm
What are Level Stakes? Just curious.
Same exact stake size for every bet.
Level stakes is going into a supermarket and spending £50 on food, £50 on beer, and £50 on bog-roll just to keep everything level. :)
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Kai
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Derek27 wrote:
Sat Jan 04, 2020 1:37 pm
Kai wrote:
Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:35 pm
GaryCook wrote:
Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:08 pm
What are Level Stakes? Just curious.
Same exact stake size for every bet.
Level stakes is going into a supermarket and spending £50 on food, £50 on beer, and £50 on bog-roll just to keep everything level. :)
Had to google bog-roll :D

In their defense the punters can't exactly hedge their risk like traders can, they have to get the outcome right so it makes some sense to squeeze every bit of value out of a price :)
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GaryCook
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Ah ok. So simple I didnt think it would mean that.
striker44
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Hi,

I stumbled across this forum accidently when looking at something else on the web. Saw this thread.

I have for sometime now layed some fav horses to come unplaced and used the little acorns extended Fibonacci Sequence: 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 4 5 6.5 8 10.5 13 17 21 27.5 34 to recover going back 2 steps on a win.

Looked back at results -

this year 40 22 55% 5 twice

19 2268 1070 47.2% 10 once

18 2233 1028 46% 8 once

17 2166 971 44.8% 9 once

Average win price of losing bets 2.06 bfsp - so at the 54.4% win sr profitable: the loss recovery makes it better -

So I think with the correct selection process you can use loss recovery to good effect.
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to75ne
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striker44 wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2020 2:09 pm
Hi,

I stumbled across this forum accidently when looking at something else on the web. Saw this thread.

I have for sometime now layed some fav horses to come unplaced and used the little acorns extended Fibonacci Sequence: 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 4 5 6.5 8 10.5 13 17 21 27.5 34 to recover going back 2 steps on a win.

Looked back at results -

this year 40 22 55% 5 twice

19 2268 1070 47.2% 10 once

18 2233 1028 46% 8 once

17 2166 971 44.8% 9 once

Average win price of losing bets 2.06 bfsp - so at the 54.4% win sr profitable: the loss recovery makes it better -

So I think with the correct selection process you can use loss recovery to good effect.

prove it then
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Dallas
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to75ne wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2020 3:53 pm
striker44 wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2020 2:09 pm
Hi,

I stumbled across this forum accidently when looking at something else on the web. Saw this thread.

I have for sometime now layed some fav horses to come unplaced and used the little acorns extended Fibonacci Sequence: 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 4 5 6.5 8 10.5 13 17 21 27.5 34 to recover going back 2 steps on a win.

Looked back at results -

this year 40 22 55% 5 twice

19 2268 1070 47.2% 10 once

18 2233 1028 46% 8 once

17 2166 971 44.8% 9 once

Average win price of losing bets 2.06 bfsp - so at the 54.4% win sr profitable: the loss recovery makes it better -

So I think with the correct selection process you can use loss recovery to good effect.
prove it then
Congrats on your 2000th post to75ne
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Derek27
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Dallas wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2020 3:54 pm
Congrats on your 2000th post to75ne
With me at least, milestones are something I always see coming but usually miss at the crucial post. :)
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Dallas
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Derek27 wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2020 4:02 pm
Dallas wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2020 3:54 pm
Congrats on your 2000th post to75ne
With me at least, milestones are something I always see coming but usually miss at the crucial post. :)
You missed this one on Election night (Dec 13th)
200000 at 2 24.JPG
I wanted to grab a screenshot of it and it was sat on 199999 for well over an hour, I even saw you log on and thought surely you'd post something but you never, in the end I had to post something just so I could grab the screenie and watch the rest of the results come in :)
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
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to75ne
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i did not realise it was number 2000, shame i wasted it on a thread about loss recovery (pet hate).

oh well i will try and not waste post number 3000 on such a trite subject. :)
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