Suggested tweak to strategies

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michaelhud1
Posts: 18
Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:40 am

Hello all, sorry if this would be wrong place to post or if I haven't scoured enough to find similar thread. I have been "learning" for last 18 months loads of trial and error.
I have played around, lost alot, played around again and lost more.
Really interested in automating but needed to learn before reattempting.
I've tried to work out the "logic" of what I'm doing so I can give automation a serious go.
Currently I am reviewing my progress since keeping detailed records for my bets/trades.
For the past 3 months I have been trialling different markets and plans etc.
My most successful runs at a loss.
There have been 4 trades/ bets within that strategy that I class as mistakes as if I followed my stake rules they would have been 4x smaller and turn overall performance of that strat to positive.
This is for football match odds. 247 markets entered.
Taking the mistakes into account average win 2.47 average loss -2.58 with expectancy of -0.11
Strike rate 43.32%

If those trades followed my max stake.
Average win 2.47 loss -2.19 expectancy 0.28
Strike rate 43.32%

I know the amount of markets entered is to low to assume significance but was hoping to see if anyone was once at a similar point and would suggest things for me to think about.

I'm worried I might be looking at something when I should address something else first?
Any help is greatly appreciated.
Thank you.
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ODPaul82
Posts: 683
Joined: Sun May 08, 2011 6:32 am
Location: Digswell Herts

Hi, to what granularity have you looked at the ones that are losing.
Is there a recurring pattern, specific leagues?
Specifc times of the games that are putting you into a loss?
Are you getting in at the right price or could have left it longer for odds to drop/increase?
What are the statistics in the game at the moment your entering when you've won/loss? Is there a pattern.

Trading football there's so many variables that you can look at.
michaelhud1
Posts: 18
Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:40 am

Thank you very much
michaelhud1
Posts: 18
Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:40 am

Today is the day
Changing my automation to bet as opposed to trading, playing around with my results and I was surprised to see that it all my positions were left open I'd be 200 up as opposed to down.
Variance scares me.
Currently got average win to 65p and losses to 64p strike rate of 13% so completely different risk to reward as before.
Next step better system, IL be using the multimotor as tipped by someone.

Feel like I've turned a corner but know it cannot be that easy, might turn this into my own personal diary goat thread 😂 any thoughts and comments greatly appreciated.
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gazuty
Posts: 2547
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am
Location: Green land :)

michaelhud1 wrote:
Sun May 16, 2021 10:34 am
Today is the day
Changing my automation to bet as opposed to trading, playing around with my results and I was surprised to see that it all my positions were left open I'd be 200 up as opposed to down.
Variance scares me.
Currently got average win to 65p and losses to 64p strike rate of 13% so completely different risk to reward as before.
Next step better system, IL be using the multimotor as tipped by someone.

Feel like I've turned a corner but know it cannot be that easy, might turn this into my own personal diary goat thread 😂 any thoughts and comments greatly appreciated.
Well done, I can see that you are thinking about things and tweaking. Some suggestions, particuarly "In the Beggining" in here for you viewtopic.php?f=17&t=23699
michaelhud1
Posts: 18
Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:40 am

Thank you
michaelhud1
Posts: 18
Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:40 am

I never expected to enjoy loosing money, in this format at least where the "fun" has been removed. I think this may be where I'm gonna struggle. The truth is I enjoy thinking about things, making changes, being surprised that I don't know what I'm doing, recomplete the cycle.
My aim was to make a passive Income, nothing major maybe half of my rent a month, I was happy if I didn't achieve that for a while.although that was my aim I don't think I truly expected that it could happen.
I've gone from blowing banks consistently to protecting one for a while now until I nearly did yesterday.
I have so much more to learn, and I want to learn about this more than what I'm studying!
Each reflective cycle I'm starting to standardise my thinking so I don't take steps back.

Latest lesson... Go back to work, build a bank slowly.
Im hesitant to ask for advice about the things I'm thinking about as realistically I haven't even given myself a proper shot at this.
My laptop can't run Excel or BA faster than 1 sec intervals, I think that's the next step as my analysis of results is limited and my anxiety about blowing a bank that I've tried so hard to protect blew up yesterday.
Once I feel "equipped" I wonder if it will make a difference psychologically.
Essay complete .....
Anbell
Posts: 2004
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:31 am

michaelhud1 wrote:
Mon May 17, 2021 10:36 am
I never expected to enjoy loosing money, in this format at least where the "fun" has been removed. I think this may be where I'm gonna struggle. The truth is I enjoy thinking about things, making changes, being surprised that I don't know what I'm doing, recomplete the cycle.
My aim was to make a passive Income, nothing major maybe half of my rent a month, I was happy if I didn't achieve that for a while.although that was my aim I don't think I truly expected that it could happen.
I've gone from blowing banks consistently to protecting one for a while now until I nearly did yesterday.
I have so much more to learn, and I want to learn about this more than what I'm studying!
Each reflective cycle I'm starting to standardise my thinking so I don't take steps back.

Latest lesson... Go back to work, build a bank slowly.
Im hesitant to ask for advice about the things I'm thinking about as realistically I haven't even given myself a proper shot at this.
My laptop can't run Excel or BA faster than 1 sec intervals, I think that's the next step as my analysis of results is limited and my anxiety about blowing a bank that I've tried so hard to protect blew up yesterday.
Once I feel "equipped" I wonder if it will make a difference psychologically.
Essay complete .....
You can get a VPS for about $20/month.
michaelhud1
Posts: 18
Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:40 am

Thank you, do you recommend any providers in particular?
Anbell
Posts: 2004
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:31 am

michaelhud1 wrote:
Tue May 18, 2021 2:31 pm
Thank you, do you recommend any providers in particular?
Betangel has one, and I dont think peter would mind me mentioning that Amazon has one (AWS Lightsail) or Vultr
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