How to monetize my pre-game hunch in BF?

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Jkukal
Posts: 2
Joined: Sun Nov 28, 2021 9:00 am

Let's say that there will be a match in Danish Superliga and I have strong hunch about Under 2.5 and it's priced 1.90, Over 2.5 is also the same odds. Now I see that in Oddsportal and in every other tipping site people are heavily predicting Over bet. My question is, how can I monetize on it in Betfair if I have U2.5 as my pick? Of course, being a popular choice on tipping sites doesn't mean that bettors also are heavily betting on it.

Is it somehow possible that I would earn more with some pre-game trading options than letting it run to the finish and earn 0.90 profit?
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Kai
Posts: 6184
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

I assume you're talking about AaB-Copenhagen? It's the only Danish match with those prices.

If you're asking how to execute this trade then it's simple enough, you back Under 2.5 and once the match starts you can let the bet run for as long as you like, or you can cash out at any time. Barely anything matched in those markets but if you don't mind a few ticks you can get something matched at an OK price.

If you don't want to go inplay and think the Unders price will shorten, you can try backing it and cashing out just before kickoff to pocket the difference in price. But if people are backing Overs on it instead like you say then maybe that's not a good idea, as the Unders will go the opposite way.
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Derek27
Posts: 23620
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

The word hunch should be removed from the gamblers and traders dictionary. Value is the word. :)
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Kai
Posts: 6184
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 1:22 pm
The word hunch should be removed from the gamblers and traders dictionary. Value is the word. :)
Indeed, or maybe it's implied already :) Or maybe he thinks the match is fixed!
Jkukal
Posts: 2
Joined: Sun Nov 28, 2021 9:00 am

No particular match though, this was just an example. Anyways, I thought that somehow I would be able to "sell" this position to other bettors, like they believe 200% that O2.5 is comig in and getting 1.9 for it but now I can "sell" it to them like for 3.0, somehow.
Like I'm selling stock, which is getting longer, for a much shorter price than market so buyers would flock on my order..

I once understood that "selling positions" is possible in BF but I may be mistaken. Thanks!
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Derek27
Posts: 23620
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Jkukal wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 1:39 pm
No particular match though, this was just an example. Anyways, I thought that somehow I would be able to "sell" this position to other bettors, like they believe 200% that O2.5 is comig in and getting 1.9 for it but now I can "sell" it to them like for 3.0, somehow.
Like I'm selling stock, which is getting longer, for a much shorter price than market so buyers would flock on my order..

I once understood that "selling positions" is possible in BF but I may be mistaken. Thanks!
It is indeed possible to sell a position on Betfair. You either back and lay at a lower price, or lay and back at a higher price.

https://www.betangelacademy.com/
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Kai
Posts: 6184
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

Ah okay, that explains why I was confused with your question, there's a free Betfair trading crash course you can check out here.

Yes, in short you can "sell" your bets to other market participants for either a profit or a loss = trading.

The initial concept blew my mind at first, I knew I needed to learn this ASAP :)
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Hardy any need to elaborate further but sports trading is just buying (aka laying) and selling (aka backing). The nearest example in tradional asset classes would probably a futures contract where the underlying asset becomes worthless (your bet loses) or worth something (your bet wins) and to reduce the volatility of your fund (your Betfair bank) you'd usual trade out of your position before you get left holding the baby.

That said don't look to financials for strategies because there's one major difference. A sports market is a basket of assets that can't all gain or lose value. When one price goes up, some or all other prices must go down and visa versa. Eg when overs go up, unders go down.
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