How do you become a winning trader then
Thanks for the response. Lot of curse words around my house today because of it! Thought an alternative would be to try and work out the direction of the surges beforehand. Then I suppose if you could do that, then theoretically so would all the big players. And maybe then the moves would be countered quickly, and the problem wouldn't exist at all...
Has this activity been the norm for years? Considered using tight stops if I was still in an open position....obviously that didn't work!
I've altered one of the PW sound alerts which seems to be working
Has this activity been the norm for years? Considered using tight stops if I was still in an open position....obviously that didn't work!
I've altered one of the PW sound alerts which seems to be working
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
These things are either biased one way and you can gain from it. Or if they aren't then long term they're a wash. Sounds like you've just got some recentism in your psychology that's leading you to believe it's always going against you? You mentioned stops, I hope they're not monetary and are based on reading the state of the market, the last thing the market cares about is your PL so it's no reason to bet.
I don't like using stops. Just talking hypothetically about getting hit by that late reset... So if i was in a great position beforehand, was chewing over the possibility of putting in a very tight stop (after most of my liability was taken out), hoping to catch a tail wind on that late surge. But i think staying away from any open positions 2 minutes out is the way to go.
I sound bitter because it was the very last race i traded after a good afternoon, and a good week tbh. I walked away after that one, anger and trading are a bad mix. But I'm not too cut up
I'm reading the market much more clearly than i have done in months. And more importantly, I've enjoyed this week far more than i have any week in a long time. Seems the enjoyment and amazement is back after a few months. Just having to keep a close eye on the greed and God complex; Boredom trading has been a previous weakness of mine, now it's back to being greed. And yes, God complex can come from trading small-ish stakes
I sound bitter because it was the very last race i traded after a good afternoon, and a good week tbh. I walked away after that one, anger and trading are a bad mix. But I'm not too cut up
I'm reading the market much more clearly than i have done in months. And more importantly, I've enjoyed this week far more than i have any week in a long time. Seems the enjoyment and amazement is back after a few months. Just having to keep a close eye on the greed and God complex; Boredom trading has been a previous weakness of mine, now it's back to being greed. And yes, God complex can come from trading small-ish stakes -
Trader Pat
- Posts: 4327
- Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm
Read a couple of recent comments on the ''Today's Horse Racing'' thread. Couple of people painting a grim picture of pre-off horse racing in the future...
Is there much truth to this.. in the opinion of the experienced heads? By that, i mean could one put a probability as to whether or not you could be making 25k plus a year from simply trading the nags (day to day), say in a 5 year time period, and then again in a 10 year period? If you assume the person in this hypothetical could make that money at current.
I thought any recent/upcoming changes would largely affect the younger traders/punters...thus their waning presence in real terms is not likely to have a significant affect on volumes/liquidity/opportunity?
Seems there's often glum talk on the BA forum about the future of pre off horse race trading. Just wanted to know in people's best judgement, whether there was anything substantially 'scary' on the horizon, or whether it was much more likely to be 'business as usual' for the next few years at least.
I'm sure i saw that Ascot did better figures than last year for example..
I'm very far down the rabbit hole, but intend to start devoting more time to footy over the next few years. That been said, i believe i have made great recent progress and hope to be able to trade these horse racing markets for many years to come!! They are much more exciting
Hopeful for the 'been there, done that' brigade can put my mind at ease
Is there much truth to this.. in the opinion of the experienced heads? By that, i mean could one put a probability as to whether or not you could be making 25k plus a year from simply trading the nags (day to day), say in a 5 year time period, and then again in a 10 year period? If you assume the person in this hypothetical could make that money at current.
I thought any recent/upcoming changes would largely affect the younger traders/punters...thus their waning presence in real terms is not likely to have a significant affect on volumes/liquidity/opportunity?
Seems there's often glum talk on the BA forum about the future of pre off horse race trading. Just wanted to know in people's best judgement, whether there was anything substantially 'scary' on the horizon, or whether it was much more likely to be 'business as usual' for the next few years at least.
I'm sure i saw that Ascot did better figures than last year for example..
I'm very far down the rabbit hole, but intend to start devoting more time to footy over the next few years. That been said, i believe i have made great recent progress and hope to be able to trade these horse racing markets for many years to come!! They are much more exciting
Hopeful for the 'been there, done that' brigade can put my mind at ease
Just been pondering some of the low volume handicaps races over the weekend.
Very tough to trade these because of the lack of padding/opinion...only divvies like me trade them... but I got to thinking how maybe you could trade them...
If the big players are giving these races a miss (at least manually), then those putting their opinions down with money are probably not the brightest; unless of course there is a gross mispricing.
So maybe any sudden trends are much more likely to reverse? Part of my thinking being that the less experienced traders are more likely to scare easily and dump positions. Thus their closing orders reinforce trends underway which they were on the wrong side of...thus causing more newbies to jump on said snowballing trend...and then when it suddenly snaps back (as so often happens in thin markets), these other newbies panic, dump their positions and reinforce the reversal.
So maybe it's the specific profile/nature of the traders in such races which make mean reversion such an attractive option?
Obviously 'backing high, laying low' blindly is a recipe for disaster...but of all race types, maybe these bare markets are the most suitable?
Very tough to trade these because of the lack of padding/opinion...only divvies like me trade them... but I got to thinking how maybe you could trade them...
If the big players are giving these races a miss (at least manually), then those putting their opinions down with money are probably not the brightest; unless of course there is a gross mispricing.
So maybe any sudden trends are much more likely to reverse? Part of my thinking being that the less experienced traders are more likely to scare easily and dump positions. Thus their closing orders reinforce trends underway which they were on the wrong side of...thus causing more newbies to jump on said snowballing trend...and then when it suddenly snaps back (as so often happens in thin markets), these other newbies panic, dump their positions and reinforce the reversal.
So maybe it's the specific profile/nature of the traders in such races which make mean reversion such an attractive option?
Obviously 'backing high, laying low' blindly is a recipe for disaster...but of all race types, maybe these bare markets are the most suitable?
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The Silk Run
- Posts: 917
- Joined: Mon May 14, 2018 12:53 am
- Location: United Kingdom
Have you ever thought about taking up Bingo.Crumpets wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 3:26 pmJust been pondering some of the low volume handicaps races over the weekend.
Very tough to trade these because of the lack of padding/opinion...only divvies like me trade them... but I got to thinking how maybe you could trade them...
If the big players are giving these races a miss (at least manually), then those putting their opinions down with money are probably not the brightest; unless of course there is a gross mispricing.
So maybe any sudden trends are much more likely to reverse? Part of my thinking being that the less experienced traders are more likely to scare easily and dump positions. Thus their closing orders reinforce trends underway which they were on the wrong side of...thus causing more newbies to jump on said snowballing trend...and then when it suddenly snaps back (as so often happens in thin markets), these other newbies panic, dump their positions and reinforce the reversal.
So maybe it's the specific profile/nature of the traders in such races which make mean reversion such an attractive option?
Obviously 'backing high, laying low' blindly is a recipe for disaster...but of all race types, maybe these bare markets are the most suitable?
I feel there is naff all money in pre off horse racing during the weekday afternoons. Creating a small opportunity window within which to operate; with little rhythm or logic to work with. Is this normal for this time of year? Just wondering how others approach this. Is this symptomatic of 3+ courses running and spreading the money too thin? Sort of how the evening markets benefit from greater volumes due to fewer races competing for the money over a session.. That being said, I recognise the evenings are generally low quality and volatile.
Following from this, does the jump season have fewer courses in the afternoons, generally? This rings a bell...
I thought the preference for the flat season was due to the longer duration of jump races? And the longer the races last, the more cramped the schedule gets, and therefore the real money has less time to create proper trends. Thus the flat season, with it's shorter race periods, was favoured.
But if the total pool of money traded in the afternoon sessions is so small, then the days with fewer courses are more favourable (barring Saturday)? So 2 courses an arvo session is easier to trade than 3, as the money is less diluted?
I appreciate the big fish only enter 'properly' when there is sufficient money waiting so they can get their money matched (and largely disguise their presence) and of course they need that liquidity to close out too. But it seems that barring Saturdays, the afternoons are wafer thin. I was looking back over my old vids from late 2021, and a blind monkey could trade them. Rhythm, logic, patterns etc. 100k+ matched several minutes before the start, creating a platform for the proper money to come in for a tradable few minutes. These days, it seems there is about 80k matched 2mins out, then another 70k gets matched before the off!! So there is no real opportunity window after the big money enters, and this makes afternoon trading nearly hopeless. Just a case of being on the correct side of the surge. Gambling.
So long rant, but are people just having to trade Friday/Saturday afternoons, and ignore the rest? Are Monday to Thursday afternoons just for low stake bot trading? Is the lack of money and liquidity unusual for this time of year? Is anybody concerned?
My context is that i'm a winter 2021 newbie, and I was looking forward to the flat season because of the expected increase in volume, but the day to day trading just seems so bare and difficult compared to the jump season! And yes I appreciate that it's no longer summer!
Grateful for any thoughts
Following from this, does the jump season have fewer courses in the afternoons, generally? This rings a bell...
I thought the preference for the flat season was due to the longer duration of jump races? And the longer the races last, the more cramped the schedule gets, and therefore the real money has less time to create proper trends. Thus the flat season, with it's shorter race periods, was favoured.
But if the total pool of money traded in the afternoon sessions is so small, then the days with fewer courses are more favourable (barring Saturday)? So 2 courses an arvo session is easier to trade than 3, as the money is less diluted?
I appreciate the big fish only enter 'properly' when there is sufficient money waiting so they can get their money matched (and largely disguise their presence) and of course they need that liquidity to close out too. But it seems that barring Saturdays, the afternoons are wafer thin. I was looking back over my old vids from late 2021, and a blind monkey could trade them. Rhythm, logic, patterns etc. 100k+ matched several minutes before the start, creating a platform for the proper money to come in for a tradable few minutes. These days, it seems there is about 80k matched 2mins out, then another 70k gets matched before the off!! So there is no real opportunity window after the big money enters, and this makes afternoon trading nearly hopeless. Just a case of being on the correct side of the surge. Gambling.
So long rant, but are people just having to trade Friday/Saturday afternoons, and ignore the rest? Are Monday to Thursday afternoons just for low stake bot trading? Is the lack of money and liquidity unusual for this time of year? Is anybody concerned?
My context is that i'm a winter 2021 newbie, and I was looking forward to the flat season because of the expected increase in volume, but the day to day trading just seems so bare and difficult compared to the jump season! And yes I appreciate that it's no longer summer!
Grateful for any thoughts
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
How much did you expect to earn from doing what you do? Is it just a matter of it not living up to expectations? Even small markets can deliver a couple of quick fivers and there's about 900 horse races a month.
.... Being positive though if you started in winter 21 then you're seeing everything for the first time. I was cynical about how you'd have to adapt to the seasons initially but it really does take 2 or 3 years to get in the rhythm and to have enough strings to your bow to make the most of a variety of situations.
.... Being positive though if you started in winter 21 then you're seeing everything for the first time. I was cynical about how you'd have to adapt to the seasons initially but it really does take 2 or 3 years to get in the rhythm and to have enough strings to your bow to make the most of a variety of situations.
I guess if you set Mr Heathcoate as something to aim for... But in all seriousness, why not aim really highly? Highly improbable you'll get close to his results, but if you at least aim for that level, you might get half decent results.
I accept that the conditions have changed over the past decade or so, and that the level of difficulty has reportedly increased year by year. But it's nice to aim high, and see what happens. Realism is overrated
But my real concern is where the ceilings are in 2022. I want to try to get a salary from this, but I see the lack of liquidity in the afternoons and it's just disheartening. If the top guys and gals are scrapping to make their money these days, then the smaller traders are feeding off the scraps of the scraps? If that makes sense..
I recognise that this is a very competitive field...I'm just curious if 2022 is proving difficult for the bigger players too? Or are these thin midweek markets just the usual? Am I mad in thinking the recent jumps season was easier to trade? Like you say Shaun, i'm still in my first year, and so it's difficult to tell what is abnormal.
Haha sorry for the thread resurrection! Just nice to get sound advice. Us newbies are a bit alone and 'in the dark'!!
But in all seriousness, why not aim really highly? Highly improbable you'll get close to his results, but if you at least aim for that level, you might get half decent results.I accept that the conditions have changed over the past decade or so, and that the level of difficulty has reportedly increased year by year. But it's nice to aim high, and see what happens. Realism is overrated
But my real concern is where the ceilings are in 2022. I want to try to get a salary from this, but I see the lack of liquidity in the afternoons and it's just disheartening. If the top guys and gals are scrapping to make their money these days, then the smaller traders are feeding off the scraps of the scraps? If that makes sense..
I recognise that this is a very competitive field...I'm just curious if 2022 is proving difficult for the bigger players too? Or are these thin midweek markets just the usual? Am I mad in thinking the recent jumps season was easier to trade? Like you say Shaun, i'm still in my first year, and so it's difficult to tell what is abnormal.
Haha sorry for the thread resurrection! Just nice to get sound advice. Us newbies are a bit alone and 'in the dark'!!