Forum Member Survey

[Derek27]

Not sure I'd consider someone taking £8K a year more successful than someone taking £50K just because they'd been at it longer and paying PC2 as opposed to PC1. With 20 years history to Betfair past glories mean very little when it comes to paying the weekly bills.

I wasn't suggesting PC2 payers are more successful than others. It's a mark of success, or milestone, like getting your 100 metre swimming certificate or passing an exam. How much credit it's worth varies.

[Derek27]

Don't get too complacent, the problem is once you start making decent profits that £12K previous commission soon gets swallowed up when Betfair are taking hundreds/thousands or so weekly off your bottom line.

That was just a help, the weekly avg should keep me out of it. I'd almost rather be on PC so my commission is maxed at 20% rather than being 25. Damned if you do and damned if you don't.

Commission doesn't get maxed at 20% when you're on PC, you just stop paying PC until your lifetime charges drop below 20% again.

[rik]

The worst thing you can do is be a winner from day 1 I'd forgotten those losses from over decade ago but now they're working in my favour!

at least betfair is anonymous, big problem for poker people you cant get a game as poeple look up your history
imagine all your bets were ID'ed and you couldnt get poeple to oppose you anymore if you show a winning history

[LeTiss]

The worst thing you can do is be a winner from day 1 I'd forgotten those losses from over decade ago but now they're working in my favour!

at least betfair is anonymous, big problem for poker people you cant get a game as poeple look up your history
imagine all your bets were ID'ed and you couldnt get poeple to oppose you anymore if you show a winning history

That's an excellent point. It would also create the greatest manipulation imaginable. It would destroy the integrity of the exchange

If people could see the winning accounts and where their bets were going, it would create carnage in the markets, as people would be desperate to follow them. Of course, the canny accounts would use that to their advantage and place spoof money to trick the inexperienced

[ShaunWhite]

Don't get too complacent, the problem is once you start making decent profits that £12K previous commission soon gets swallowed up when Betfair are taking hundreds/thousands or so weekly off your bottom line.

That was just a help, the weekly avg should keep me out of it. I'd almost rather be on PC so my commission is maxed at 20% rather than being 25. Damned if you do and damned if you don't.

Commission doesn't get maxed at 20% when you're on PC, you just stop paying PC until your lifetime charges drop below 20% again.

I didn't explain that too well. I'm saying that if you pay <20% during the week you'll pay 20% total after the PC but no more. But if you're paying >20% during the week then that's >20% paid..

Or I might have that wrong, cos I'm swerving it at the moment I'm obv not as clued up about it as you guys.

[Derek27]

The worst thing you can do is be a winner from day 1 I'd forgotten those losses from over decade ago but now they're working in my favour!

at least betfair is anonymous, big problem for poker people you cant get a game as poeple look up your history
imagine all your bets were ID'ed and you couldnt get poeple to oppose you anymore if you show a winning history

That wouldn't apply to traders who just need to close position and I doubt punters would or should take much notice. It's quite common for two highly successful punters to have opposing views on a race. I can imagine a punter having £10K on a horse at 4.5 because he thinks it's a 4.0 chance - people chasing might back it down to 3.5.

[Derek27]

That was just a help, the weekly avg should keep me out of it. I'd almost rather be on PC so my commission is maxed at 20% rather than being 25. Damned if you do and damned if you don't.

Commission doesn't get maxed at 20% when you're on PC, you just stop paying PC until your lifetime charges drop below 20% again.

I didn't explain that too well. I'm saying that if you pay <20% during the week you'll pay 20% total after the PC but no more. But if you're paying >20% during the week then that's >20% paid..

Or I might have that wrong, cos I'm swerving it at the moment I'm obv not as clued up about it as you guys.

Yeah, that's right. I misunderstood your post.

[ShaunWhite]

Be careful what you wish for Shaun, the longer you go on the more efficient and profitable you'll become especially with comms at 2%. It's one thing to win a couple of grand but trying to get 1K comms to offset 50% at 2% means churning over £50K wins/losses. Not any traders or botters will get near that type of win rates. Plus the effort to try and churn over comms can be a full time job and distraction in itself.

Yep I hear what you mean. It's all about turnover having a ceiling and the better you get the harder you make it for yourself.

I think what makes it a slight headdfck for me anyway is that commission is generated via gross wins + gross loses (comm and implied comm) but only paid on gross wins, and then pc is applied to your weekly gross wins - gross losses. I think.

There's been some good threads about pc on here. I think I'll go back and read them again later. I seem to remember the conclusion was that if you want to make more money you just need to earn more money. It's like trying to avoid income tax on 40 grand a year when you'd be better off working at earning 100grand and just paying what they ask for. Or putting so much effort into screwing the benefits system that a job would be easier.

[rik]

in a way PC makes things easier all that matters is the gross profit number before any commission taken and your betting should be designed to make that as high as possible
if your quite certain not to drop out you can just ignore all commission and bet whenever you think your at advantage however small
without PC youd have to ask yourself before each bet/trade „am i beating the 2% or whatever rate im on“ which is harder to judge and rules out anything marginal
so it can incentivise you to try lower margin approach which for me probably improved my overall and more fun as well

[spreadbetting]

I seem to remember the conclusion was that if you want to make more money you just need to earn more money. It's like trying to avoid income tax on 40 grand a year when you'd be better off working at earning 100grand and just paying what they ask for. Or putting so much effort into screwing the benefits system that a job would be easier.

That's probably the long and short of it, there's obviously the gifted few that seem to be able to arb all their profits out to bookmaker accounts but for most of us you're better off trying to win more whilst at least maintaining that 10%+ lifetime comms to avoid the 50%/60% bands. PC2 is over 9 years old now so wouldn't be a big surprise if that was tweaked.

[rik]

if youd be able to control your arbs losing more often on betfair youd still be better of just placing the value bets
just babble, lucky they lost more on betfair talking rubbish

[Derek27]

if youd be able to control your arbs losing more often on betfair youd still be better of just placing the value bets
just babble, lucky they lost more on betfair talking rubbish

It's not a question of controlling your arbs. If you arb US racing you are guaranteed to lose on Berfair, so much so that I regret ever arbing US racing. I should have let the bets run.

[rik]

if youd be able to control your arbs losing more often on betfair youd still be better of just placing the value bets
just babble, lucky they lost more on betfair talking rubbish

It's not a question of controlling your arbs. If you arb US racing you are guaranteed to lose on Berfair, so much so that I regret ever arbing US racing. I should have let the bets run.

what im saying, no point losing on betfair on purpose to avoid pc, stick to the bookmaker bets if they are the value
what bookmaker offers good odds on us racing, isnt it mostly tote betting?

[Derek27]

what im saying, no point losing on betfair on purpose to avoid pc, stick to the bookmaker bets if they are the value

Problem is, I didn't realise that until they closed all my accounts!

what bookmaker offers good odds on us racing, isnt it mostly tote betting?

All of them. Here's the best example I've found and posted before. I was just a few seconds too late to get on the fav at 33/1. But I agree with you, if you can get on at 33/1 and see the price crash, don't arb, just let it run.

WH madness.PNG

[TraderFred]

33/1 about a 3/1 fav is palpable error, not an arb.

Can’t see you getting paid out on too many of those.