Israel/Palestine conflict

[Archery1969]

Israel’s economy has lost £2.9 billion since Jan 2024. Growth estimate has been downgraded from 1.9% to 0.4%.

I hope they lose allot more.

[greenmark]

Israel’s economy has lost £2.9 billion since Jan 2024. Growth estimate has been downgraded from 1.9% to 0.4%.

I hope they lose allot more.

I'ts a popular notion that a good war boosts economic growth. I can't see who is benefiting from Israel/Palestine or Ukraine/Russia.
Maybe individual companies are prospering, but at national level the impact on financial markets seems to be a heavy drag if anything.
The markets in general don't like uncertainty that wars bring. Sure, some in the markets LOVE the opportunities uncertainty brings but I think they are outliers.
Would you like your pension pot based on high-risk investments?

[Archery1969]

Israel’s economy has lost £2.9 billion since Jan 2024. Growth estimate has been downgraded from 1.9% to 0.4%.

I hope they lose allot more.

I'ts a popular notion that a good war boosts economic growth. I can't see who is benefiting from Israel/Palestine or Ukraine/Russia.
Maybe individual companies are prospering, but at national level the impact on financial markets seems to be a heavy drag if anything.
The markets in general don't like uncertainty that wars bring. Sure, some in the markets LOVE the opportunities uncertainty brings but I think they are outliers.
Would you like your pension pot based on high-risk investments?

In 2014 I switched my pension investments towards defence companies with a 70/30 split. So BAE, Lockheed Martin, Thales etc. As a result my pension pot increased by 140% which is just over 14% on average per annum compounded. Was that a high risk gamble on my part, probably but it worked.

[greenmark]

Israel’s economy has lost £2.9 billion since Jan 2024. Growth estimate has been downgraded from 1.9% to 0.4%.

I hope they lose allot more.

I'ts a popular notion that a good war boosts economic growth. I can't see who is benefiting from Israel/Palestine or Ukraine/Russia.
Maybe individual companies are prospering, but at national level the impact on financial markets seems to be a heavy drag if anything.
The markets in general don't like uncertainty that wars bring. Sure, some in the markets LOVE the opportunities uncertainty brings but I think they are outliers.
Would you like your pension pot based on high-risk investments?

In 2014 I switched my pension investments towards defence companies with a 70/30 split. So BAE, Lockheed Martin, Thales etc. As a result my pension pot increased by 140% which is just over 14% on average per annum compounded. Was that a high risk gamble on my part, probably but it worked.

Precisely my point. High-risk, high reward or heavy loss. Its very, very tricky to get it right. My IFA alerted me to the concept of my personal risk tolerance. I'm not a risk taker. I'm glad it worked for you. I just can't do that. But as you say, if it works (particularly long term) thats brilliant.

[Big Bad Barney]

I'm not a risk taker.

Hi there, I thought I'd just mention that there's no such thing. You HAVE to be a risk taker because EVERYTHING is a risk. I am being pedantic, but you probably mean you don't like uncertainty. I.e. The implied probability trends to 1. I too am that way inclined, hence this response

That sort of things gotta rest on this bias doovey somewhere..https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File ... dex_en.svg

Probably why they say fortune favours the bold.

[Archery1969]

I'ts a popular notion that a good war boosts economic growth. I can't see who is benefiting from Israel/Palestine or Ukraine/Russia.
Maybe individual companies are prospering, but at national level the impact on financial markets seems to be a heavy drag if anything.
The markets in general don't like uncertainty that wars bring. Sure, some in the markets LOVE the opportunities uncertainty brings but I think they are outliers.
Would you like your pension pot based on high-risk investments?

In 2014 I switched my pension investments towards defence companies with a 70/30 split. So BAE, Lockheed Martin, Thales etc. As a result my pension pot increased by 140% which is just over 14% on average per annum compounded. Was that a high risk gamble on my part, probably but it worked.

Precisely my point. High-risk, high reward or heavy loss. Its very, very tricky to get it right. My IFA alerted me to the concept of my personal risk tolerance. I'm not a risk taker. I'm glad it worked for you. I just can't do that. But as you say, if it works (particularly long term) thats brilliant.

I guess it comes down to level of risk. Obviously I took massive risks in Iraq and Afghanistan, just by being there. Probably that swayed my thinking towards investment income and to some extent didn’t really care if it went down the toilet so to speak.

But life comes with risks, like crossing a road or waiting for an ambulance to turn up etc.

[greenmark]

I'm not a risk taker.

Hi there, I thought I'd just mention that there's no such thing. You HAVE to be a risk taker because EVERYTHING is a risk. I am being pedantic, but you probably mean you don't like uncertainty. I.e. The implied probability trends to 1. I too am that way inclined, hence this response

That sort of things gotta rest on this bias doovey somewhere..https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File ... dex_en.svg

Probably why they say fortune favours the bold.

I allow my IFA's to advise and fund managers to deliver.
I don't have a clue about this stuff which is why I use the above. And I have no intention of changing. But if folks have the nerve/accumen to increase their risk I hope they are rewarded. Fortune should favour the brave.

[Archery1969]

I'm not a risk taker.

Hi there, I thought I'd just mention that there's no such thing. You HAVE to be a risk taker because EVERYTHING is a risk. I am being pedantic, but you probably mean you don't like uncertainty. I.e. The implied probability trends to 1. I too am that way inclined, hence this response

That sort of things gotta rest on this bias doovey somewhere..https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File ... dex_en.svg

Probably why they say fortune favours the bold.

I allow my IFA's to advise and fund managers to deliver.
I don't have a clue about this stuff which is why I use the above. And I have no intention of changing. But if folks have the nerve/accumen to increase their risk I hope they are rewarded. Fortune should favour the brave.

I kinda had an idea when Putin took back Crimea that it would spark defence company shares/stock to rocket. Which it did. I like to think it was a calculated risk rather than just sticking a load of money on my football team and hoping for the best. But of course it could have gone the other way and I could have lost 70% of my pension fund.

[greenmark]

Hi there, I thought I'd just mention that there's no such thing. You HAVE to be a risk taker because EVERYTHING is a risk. I am being pedantic, but you probably mean you don't like uncertainty. I.e. The implied probability trends to 1. I too am that way inclined, hence this response

That sort of things gotta rest on this bias doovey somewhere..https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File ... dex_en.svg

Probably why they say fortune favours the bold.

I allow my IFA's to advise and fund managers to deliver.
I don't have a clue about this stuff which is why I use the above. And I have no intention of changing. But if folks have the nerve/accumen to increase their risk I hope they are rewarded. Fortune should favour the brave.

I kinda had an idea when Putin took back Crimea that it would spark defence company shares/stock to rocket. Which it did. I like to think it was a calculated risk rather than just sticking a load of money on my football team and hoping for the best. But of course it could have gone the other way and I could have lost 70% of my pension fund.

Thats a really interesting perspective. My IFA used to put me through a questionaire about my attitude to risk and I went "balanced". But there is no doubt risk can = reward. But you must realise risk can also = big loss.
It's about what risk you are comfortable with.
Entrepreneurs not only risk everything they have but take on debt from anyone willing to loan them money.
They are the engine of our economy.

[ForFolksSake]

Iran ‘preparing to attack Israel’ possibly before US election

[greenmark]

Iran ‘preparing to attack Israel’ possibly before US election

Iran don't seem to be the scary threat.
They appear unable to strike and unable to protect their pals from assassination on their own territory.

I've known a couple of Iranians displaced and they absolutely hated the current Iranian regime.
The Shahs regime was corrupt but Irn now is also corrupt. We are such a dumb species.

Imagine a new world. Everyone works together on the problems humanity faces.
I can hear the chortling from here.
But look at the alternative.

[ForFolksSake]

Iran’s supreme leader has threatened both Israel and the US with “a crushing response” over attacks on the country and its allies.

[greenmark]

Iran’s supreme leader has threatened both Israel and the US with “a crushing response” over attacks on the country and its allies.

At this point I would suggest that is ludicrous rhetoric aimed at iran's allies and the home population that they continue to indoctinate to see the US/west as the enemy. Bitterly ironic that it's their own govt that are ruining their lives not the US/west.

[Archery1969]

Iran’s supreme leader has threatened both Israel and the US with “a crushing response” over attacks on the country and its allies.

At this point I would suggest that is ludicrous rhetoric aimed at iran's allies and the home population that they continue to indoctinate to see the US/west as the enemy. Bitterly ironic that it's their own govt that are ruining their lives not the US/west.

Turkey says it has information that Iran is planning a large strike on Israel via its proxies in Iraq and Syria.

[greenmark]

Iran’s supreme leader has threatened both Israel and the US with “a crushing response” over attacks on the country and its allies.

At this point I would suggest that is ludicrous rhetoric aimed at iran's allies and the home population that they continue to indoctinate to see the US/west as the enemy. Bitterly ironic that it's their own govt that are ruining their lives not the US/west.

Turkey says it has information that Iran is planning a large strike on Israel via its proxies in Iraq and Syria.

Recent history would suggest "Good luck with that".
Of course it COULD all change overnight depending on the US election, but tbh I don't think it will. Sudden policy changes hurt everybody unless they are immaculately thought through. Does that definition chime with your assessment of Trump's thinking? Not for me. He's ......oh forget it there's no point trawling over Trump's incompetence.