jimibt wrote: ↑Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:44 am
just started reading
The Biggest Bluff: How I Learned to Pay Attention, Master Myself, and Win
Did you hear about her on More or Less? I was just catching up with it and heard a feature about her (aug 19th episode). Then I came here to post a quote from something else and saw your recommendation, bit of a coincidence.
That feature also had a great quote from Edward Gibbon 1750ish. One of the first people to apply probability to staking in card & dice games while others were still using the stars for guidance...
He said "
the laws of probability, so true in general, so fallacous in particular". That should be lesson 1, day 1 of trading 101.
He was actually talking about what day he might die in the next 15yrs rather than horses at the time, but it holds true everywhere. Dying for him was probably a daily gamble if he was using maths to play cards while the others were using luck and the heavens
