Thought i would share an image of my thought process for a new bot.
what i am hoping for this to present to me is a guardian bot, that will dutch the fav and 2nd fav in horses races
but only if the predicted profit of the 2 runners is greater than the stake i place.
I have the bot running and testing at the minute.
I am only using excel for my calcs. they have been transferred to the guarding bot.
Thought Process For new bot
- MemphisFlash
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- Location: Leicester
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- MemphisFlash
- Posts: 2162
- Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 10:12 pm
- Location: Leicester
Not a bad day with this
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MemphisFlash wrote: ↑Sun Apr 03, 2022 12:38 pmwhat i am hoping for this to present to me is a guardian bot, that will dutch the fav and 2nd fav in horses races
but only if the predicted profit of the 2 runners is greater than the stake i place.
I might be wrong here as it's been a while, but when dutching, you have to tally up the odds and represent as book% to calculate your return, you can't average out the odds by simply summing and dividing by number of members - just isn't correct.
so for example, the 1st entry in your spreadsheet (3.25, 4.3) comes out to a book% of approx 54.01% => ([100/3.25 = 30.76] + [100/4.3 = 23.25]).
The dutched odds (average odds in your sheet) is actually 1.85 (100/54.01). This would mean that your £10 stake would return a p&l of £8.50.
So, in order to return a profit that is >= stake, the combined book% must be <= 50.
here are the values for a few of the others from your sheet:
(1st fav odds, 2nd fav odds, dutched odds, book%, return on £10)
2.58, 4.7, 1.66, 60.03, 6.65
3.25, 3.3, 1.64, 61.07, 6.37
....
2.78, 5.0, 1.78, 55.97, 7.86
2.48, 3.8, 1.50, 66.63, 5.00
Hope this helps with thinking about the viability of profit based on staking - it still looks not too bad .
- ShaunWhite
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belt 'n bracesShaunWhite wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 9:54 pmI never take anything at face value...and it seems you're right.
Screenshot_9.jpg
it is definitely a well misunderstood calculation (dutching) and one that can make you think you've found your strategy nirvana until you step back and reassess the calcs... story of my life when doing BF!!
hope all well with you - have ditched straight spot crypto and am now doing leveraged futures on crypto. all makes sense now. when doing spot crypto i always seemed to reabsorb any profits back into my bank. with clearly defined strategies on leverage, it's pretty much the same ball game as here (sports trading) with the ability to hedge in either direction. the beauty tho is that you don't have the overhead imposed of having to seed the market in the same way that laying does. will catch up proper soon!!
- ShaunWhite
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Crypto is a step too far to me, I've got too many interests and not enough years so it hasn't made the edit.
i get what you're saying. i guess i just got pulled in by the clamour[sic] of it all. tbh, i find it on par with BF, maybe on occassion, actually easier. that said, the market will mature and industialised bots (even tho present in the space already), will make it more difficult to score. for now tho, we're fine.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Fri Apr 08, 2022 2:05 pmCrypto is a step too far to me, I've got too many interests and not enough years so it hasn't made the edit.
- ShaunWhite
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My son's been trying to convert me but I'll leave that playground to him. S'funny cos I've not talked to him about trading much at all but he's already been saying a lot of sensible things about backfitting and the long view....but I'm glad he's got a good job on the spanners rather than getting carried away with pipedreams. Basic Maslow hierarchy init, nail the essentials and then work on the rest of the pyramid.jimibt wrote: ↑Fri Apr 08, 2022 3:01 pmi get what you're saying. i guess i just got pulled in by the clamour[sic] of it all. tbh, i find it on par with BF, maybe on occassion, actually easier. that said, the market will mature and industialised bots (even tho present in the space already), will make it more difficult to score. for now tho, we're fine.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Fri Apr 08, 2022 2:05 pmCrypto is a step too far to me, I've got too many interests and not enough years so it hasn't made the edit.
- ShaunWhite
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..... Sorry Memphis, me and Jim should probably just shoot the breeze somewhere else.
- Crazyskier
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The Maslow's bit took me back 30 years to my Psych combined-honours degree at Uni. The principle is still as true as ever though.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Fri Apr 08, 2022 3:12 pmMy son's been trying to convert me but I'll leave that playground to him. S'funny cos I've not talked to him about trading much at all but he's already been saying a lot of sensible things about backfitting and the long view....but I'm glad he's got a good job on the spanners rather than getting carried away with pipedreams. Basic Maslow hierarchy init, nail the essentials and then work on the rest of the pyramid.jimibt wrote: ↑Fri Apr 08, 2022 3:01 pmi get what you're saying. i guess i just got pulled in by the clamour[sic] of it all. tbh, i find it on par with BF, maybe on occassion, actually easier. that said, the market will mature and industialised bots (even tho present in the space already), will make it more difficult to score. for now tho, we're fine.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Fri Apr 08, 2022 2:05 pmCrypto is a step too far to me, I've got too many interests and not enough years so it hasn't made the edit.
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